- Daily DFS
- Monday Picks
I created a leaderboard of the best pull hitters of the season. I did this more out of curiosity than any particular use. In any case, here is the link sorted by wOBA.
Pull wOBA can be seen as a very rough proxy for HR power, since players who do well pulling the ball tend to do so by hitting it very hard. We only have how hitters have already performed, so we’re still a full step away from an actionable list. What we really need to know is how hitters are projected to perform while pulling the ball. In any case, it’s some food for thought.
Only one name really surprised me in the top 30, can you guess who?
2. Daily DFS
Early: 10 games will start before 4:00 PM ET.
The Tigers were all over Tyler Matzek yesterday. Today they’ll see lefty Jorge de la Rosa. He’s done well to limit the damage this year, but he’s still a mid-tier lefty. The Tigers feast upon such pitchers.
Jacob Turner has an ugly 5.69 ERA, but his peripherals are much better. The guy is hittable and can turn in bad outings – even against a team like the Reds. Just don’t be surprised if he shuts them down entirely. Miles Mikolas turned that particular trick yesterday.
The Mariners will face scuffling righty Chris Tillman. He’s survived his outings with the kind of peripherals that presage a drop into the abyss. The M’s stack of lefties have a good shot at some home runs at Camden Yards.
Kyle Gibson and Jose Quintana will pitch at U.S. Cellular Field. It’s the second friendliest park for home runs. While I wouldn’t necessarily stack against either guy, look for a bomb or two in this game.
The Blue Jays have a top offense against right-handed pitching. They’re on the road against Scott Feldman today. He has a lot in common with Tillman in my eyes, except Minute Maid Park is a better venue for pitching (still hitter friendly).
Late: Five games fit in the late batch, although they’re also a part of the main contest.
Edwin Jackson is a mess, but the Cubs will keep using him in hopes they can recoup some of their investment. He does have a 3.99 xFIP, but bunches of walks are behind most of his recent struggles. He’ll face a banged up Dodgers unit.
Trevor Cahill draws the Pirates today. He was able to buff his strikeout rate in the bullpen, but it doesn’t look like that will convert back to starting. Without those extra punch outs, his high walk rate will ensure many poor outings to come.
Since returning from the disabled list, Clay Buchholz has thrown one dominant outing and struggled a handful of times. The Yankees have an offense that can be best termed as “pesky,” so there is upside and downside to stacking against him.
3. Monday Picks
Only seven games tomorrow, so load up on whatever you can. Anyone looking to take advantage of matchups can forget it – tomorrow is packed with great pitching.
Pitchers to Start: Brandon McCarthy‘s studly peripherals have shined in New York. He’s vindicated me for a season of recommendations. Now he just needs to survive the Tigers onslaught. To be clear, I would avoid this matchup most days. However, it’s just so thin tomorrow.
Tanner Roark is up to 74 percent owned on Yahoo, but I’ve been able to acquire him for free several times in the last couple weeks, and he remains on one waiver wire now. Roark is a slightly lesser version of McCarthy (a pinch fewer strikeouts, more walks), with a slightly better matchup – the Orioles at neutral Nationals Stadium.
Pitchers to Exploit: The one place you can go for offense Chicago, where the White Sox are hosting the Rangers. Neither team has a potent offense, but they’ll throw Hector Noesi and Nick Martinez – two of the very worst pitchers of the season. Martinez makes for the savvier target, he’s back to walking more than he’s struck out, and he allows plenty of home runs with his fly ball approach. Noesi has developed the peripherals of a passable pitcher (4.41 xFIP) and so could survive this matchup.
Only because you need somebody to sink your teeth into, Dillon Gee is probably the next worst pitcher scheduled for tomorrow. And I’d consider starting him at home against the Giants.
Conor Gillaspie might put a charge into one. He rarely does.
Leonys Martin is another threat on the bases for tomorrow.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
We should dodge any weather related issues today.
The Link. As you might expect from early August day games, the conditions really favor hitters today.
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