The Daily Grind: 9-2-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Arenado and Harrison
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Wednesday Picks
  4. Table

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1. Arenado and Harrison

There was something else I wanted to write about here, but I can’t remember. No point obsessing over it. I did a couple write ups on Nolan Arenado and Josh Harrison yesterday. The basic analysis suggests both breakouts are the real deal. They should be valuable fantasy contributors in 2015.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Brad Penny is a target due to a high walk rate. He didn’t show this issue while getting ready in the minors, but he’s currently walked nine hitters against seven strikeouts in 13 innings. His swinging strike rate is just 3.2 percent, so expect balls in play.

Hector Noesi versus Tommy Milone has the potential for a high scoring contest. There are two factors pushing the other way. The Twins and White Sox feature indifferent offenses and Target Field is never nice to hitters.

C.J. Wilson versus Brad Peacock might be a more surefire source of run production. Peacock has a terrifying matchup with the Angels juggernaut while Wilson must keep his walk rate in line against a decent Astros offense. The game is at Minute Maid Park, which can be friendly to hitters.

Yusmeiro Petit and Jordan Lyles are pitching at Coors Field. I like Petit in general, but definitely not at Coors. Losing a little edge on his pitch movement and control could be disastrous.

Rapid Fire: Kyle Lobstein is a stack option based solely on inexperience. The Braves aren’t very good against right-handed pitching, but a matchup with Kyle Kendrick and his 4.97 ERA could be an exception to the rule.

3. Wednesday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Jacob deGrom reminds me of The Gromble in that both names share “Grom.” Like that cartoon from my childhood, deGrom sets up his offerings with a plus changeup in order to terrorize unsuspecting humans. He’ll pitch at Miami.

After a strong run, Marcus Stroman has been flaky over his last five starts. Three are outings to forget in which he allowed five earned runs in each. Two were strong, if not elite. Tomorrow, he’ll pitch at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field.

Pitchers to Exploit: Carlos Frias has a lively 95 mph fastball, but he’s also yet to succeed in the majors or upper minors. As such, an entire start from the right-hander could spell a few runs for the Nationals.

Ryan Vogelsong and Christian Bergman pitch at Coors tomorrow. Bergman is a target everywhere, but Vogelsong usually exists in the space between “to Start” and “to Exploit.”

Anthony Ranaudo is one of many pitchers who has the stuff to be a positive target in the future. Right now, I’m looking at a walk rate greater than his low strikeout rate, a swinging strike rate below four percent, and a ground ball rate of 31 percent. We’re firmly in small sample land with just 18 major league innings, but those peripherals are worrisome.

Dylan Axelrod has yet to crap the bed despite pitching in supercharged offensive venues. He’ll get another chance to survive in offense heaven with a start at Camden Yards.

Anything can happen when Danny Salazar starts.

Nick Tepesch is the next Ranger to target. He’s actually been non-terrible in recent starts. He only had one real meltdown in August.

Trevor May and his 10.42 ERA remains a target. The Twins seem invested in giving him every shot to settle down this season, which is a good move in my book.

Hitters (power): Regular pick Seth Smith is an option.

Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier have the platoon advantage.

Hitters (speed): Whoever starts between Norichika Aoki and Jarrod Dyson is a good steals target.

Michael Bourn is against Justin Verlander.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

New York and Baltimore come with storm threats today.

The Link. An extremely red table today with only four of the top 15 stadiums in play today.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Brad is a former collegiate player who writes for FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, The Hardball Times, RotoWorld, and The Fake Baseball. He's also the lead MLB editor for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter @BaseballATeam or email him here.


6 Responses to “The Daily Grind: 9-2-14 – Presented by FanDuel”

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  1. Steven14 says:

    Vogelsong has a big difference in home/road ERA. Harrison and arenado are beasts

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Captain Darkstar says:

    Any thoughts on Mat Latos at Camden Yards? My ratios are already pretty strained after Kluber’s blowup yesterday.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. geo says:

    Tepesch may have had “only one meltdown” in August, but it came against the Royals, the team he faces tomorrow. I’m staying away.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Zain says:

    I picked up Collmenter for today. He’s playing in SD and his xFIP has been one of the best over the last 30 days. Do you think he would be a good start option?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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