- Stolen Base Matchups
- Daily DFS
- Friday Picks
1. Stolen Base Matchups
Somehow, this article by Nicholas Minnix on stolen base matchups escaped my attention. I mostly focus on finding speedy guys against bad pitchers. My theory is that by maximizing opportunities, you’ll probably maximize steals. I’m all for shortcuts. Mr. Minnix’s spreadsheet could prove to be a better process. I’ll look into implementing it in some way for the conclusion of the season.
2. Daily DFS
Thankfully, all eight games are late.
Brandon Workman versus Chris Capuano might be the best place to target runs. We know Yankee Stadium is hitter friendly. Workman’s peripherals are mediocre and include a lot of fly balls and home runs. Amazingly, Capuano looks a lot better on paper. He has a 3.56 FIP.
The Ranger du jour is Robbie Ross. The lefty will have the platoon advantage against much of the Mariners lineup. His low strikeout rate means plenty of balls in play and more than enough opportunity for mischief.
While I’m usually all for targeting the Padres offense, Randall Delgado changes things. He wasn’t entirely successful out of the pen, with a strong strikeout rate and way too many walks. He’ll probably only get worse as a starter, and he isn’t stretched out either. He’s made some three inning appearances, but expecting anything beyond that might be a bit much.
3. Friday Picks
Pitchers to Start: I’m not so certain Tsuyoshi Wada can maintain his decent peripherals. As it stands, his 2.79 ERA is a run below his FIP and xFIP (3.80, 3.78). He’s also a fly ball pitcher, which doesn’t mix well with Wrigley Field. Still, I’ll tentatively target him since he’s shown us nothing but good.
If you’re not worried about strikeouts or a low chance for a win, T.J. House appears viable at home against the White Sox. That’s my roundabout way of saying I think he can give you non-heinous innings and little else.
I wonder which Clay Buchholz will show up tomorrow. The guy who blanked the Rays in a complete game or the guy who allowed six runs to the Angels a couple weeks ago. Buchholz has been exceedingly inconsistent start to start. From watching him, it’s all based on command. He’s either sharp and deadly, or he’s fish food. This is a high risk, high reward pick.
In case anybody missed the memo on Matt Shoemaker, he should have been on your roster awhile ago. He’ll face the Twins at Target Field tomorrow.
Pitchers to Exploit: Jerome Williams has not suddenly learned how to succeed at the big league level. His 4.46 xFIP as a Phillie puts the lie to his 2.03 ERA. The Nationals should enjoy the matchup.
Call it a feeling, I expect Jake Peavy to struggle against the Tigers. He’s a great fit for the National League and AT&T Park, but put him in a neutral stadium against a top offense, and I get skittish.
Tomorrow’s Ranger is Scott Baker. Dust off lefty Mariners.
Ricky Nolasco is opposite the Angels. That’s a scary proposition.
Adam Lind has been quiet, but the matchup with Buchholz could work out.
Hitters (speed): Drew Stubbs should get a start.
Brock Holt bats leadoff. That’s all.
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Our little Thursday is clear of weather constraints.
The Link. For such a thin day, there are plenty of offensive venues.
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