The Dee Gordon Experience

To say Dee Gordon was overhyped this preseason would be an understatement. Everywhere you looked someone was predicting him to steal 40+ bases. Our man Eno Sarris even made a bold prediction that he would steal 60 bases without hitting a single home run. He looks to be wrong on both accounts. Gordon had an average positional draft position of 10th on Mock Draft Central. The Rotographs consensus rankings had him 7th. What has he done to repay those brave enough to make such predictions? Become one of the worst everyday players in the game.

That last line isn’t hyperbole. Gordon is hitting .200/.244/.255 in 156 plate appearances. He does have 12 steals so he’s running at every opportunity. It’s extremely hard to steal bases from the bench, though, which is where his poor play has landed him. Manager Don Mattingly has given him a few “mental health” days instead of calling it an outright benching, but with the Dodgers facing a bunch of lefties in Arizona this week it’s possible he won’t see another start until Friday. In this L.A. Times article Gordon says he doesn’t think he’s being pitched differently this year. That’s not necessarily true. Last season he saw fastballs 67 percent of the time and this season it’s 63. The drop in fastball rate has been replaced by an uptick in changeups, from 7.9 percent to 10.4. He had success in his 56 game debut last season but the book may be out on him. Adjusting to major league caliber off speed pitches is a challenge all young players face. He’ll need to adjust to have any success.

He’s also hitting six percent more fly balls than season, and ~seven percent more infield flies. Mattingly should give Gordon the Willie Mays Hayes treatment and force him to do pushups for every ball he hits in the air. You can’t outrun a fly ball. While Gordon tries to remember how to hit again 26-year-old Justin Sellers will be starting in his place. Sellers isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either, hitting .186/.271/.372 but does have a hit in four straight games. If the Dodgers didn’t have a rash of injuries I’m not sure Gordon would still be up in the big leagues. Their disabled list includes Mark Ellis, Matt Guerrier, Jerry Hariston, Matt Kemp, Juan Rivera and Juan Uribe. Hariston comes off the DL soon and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Gordon is sent down to make room.

You have a tough decision to make as a Gordon owner. Do you drop him and run the risk of him fixing his issues in the minors and another owner scooping him up? Or do you stash him on your bench, riding out the struggles for the hope of stolen bases in the future? If it were up to me I’d take the risk and drop him. There are too many better shortstops out there who are better and available in less than 50 percent of leagues.


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Erik writes for DraysBay and has also written for Bloomberg Sports. Follow him on Twitter @ehahmann.

19 Responses to “The Dee Gordon Experience”

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  1. MustBunique says:

    .241 BABIP and 54% ground ball rate make me hopeful that good things are on the way for Dee if the Dodgers stick with him long enough. For the sake of my steals category in 2 leagues I hope I’m right.

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    • junker23 says:

      Yeah, this seems real BABIP-driven. If he had been hitting at his ZiPS projected BABIP so far this year, he’d be hitting a shade under .270 right now. (If he had the same BABIP as last year, he’d be hitting over .280.)

      Needs to cut down slightly on strikeouts and fly balls and he’s the same guy he was last year.

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      • Ralph says:

        Does BABIP even hold true for players with barely enough power to leave the infield? Seriously. I don’t know, it just seems that if you’re less likely to find gaps in the outfield your BABIP would seem like it would by default be unnaturally low. I guess maybe it would be made up by the extra infield hits though?

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      • Mark Himmelstein says:

        His contact rates are fine too, excellent actually. The strikeout rate should come under control if he’s given the opportunity.

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      • ben says:

        the whole “ball can barely leave the infield” thing is seriously exagerated. obviously the guy doesn’t have home run power, but he can easily reach the outfield.
        He is great at making contact. If he can learn some plate patience (which, after speed, is probably the hardest skill to learn) then he’ll be fine.

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      • AA says:

        The guy has plenty of power to hit the line drives and hard grounders he needs to get on base. Indeed, the way he absolutely crushed that home run in Colorado shows that he generates enough bat speed. The real issue is pitch recognition.

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  2. supershredder says:

    Feeling better about myself after wondering why the hell people were drafting this guy so damn early when Scutaro, Lowrie and others were going 200 picks later.

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  3. The Dude says:

    I am stashing him – but picked up Lowrie. He’s eating 1 of my 2 bench spots and with the league rules allowing only 5 transactions until AS Break – he better get right fast.

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  4. The flash says:

    In the one blessing of my miserable season thus far I traded Dee for Beachy ten days ago – couldn’t believe it went through

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  5. Ray says:

    how many of those shortstops can instantly change one category like Gordon can?

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    • Ralph says:

      Oh you mean who can destroy my batting average, home runs, rbi, and runs scored categories while adding barely more steals than Campagna, who’s played half the games and wasn’t even drafted? Almost no one.

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      • El Duderino says:

        Ralph with the steel chair!

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      • Ray says:

        Campana plays shortstop?

        Gordon hit very well last season when he played everyday, and everyone knows he won’t be hitting home runs and driving in runs. You drafted him for his steals, runs and some BA.

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  6. papasmurf says:

    Basehit in his first AB after benching!

    .350 hitter the rest of the wayyyyyy


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  7. I see this as a great buy low opportunity. He’s got equal odds to equal Elvis Andrus or absolutley suck.

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    • big red machine says:

      no chance he was 50/50 of being equal to Andrus coming into the season… so there is no chance that is true now after a terrible 2 months, especially considering there is a real possibility he could get sent down to the minors

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  8. The Man says:

    That’s why you are not a good fantasy manager and probably shouldn’t be writing on this website. Gordon is a stud… other players haven’t hit 210 before for the first 1.5 months…talent is talent…he makes contact…and he is really really really fast….which is all you need

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  9. Erk877 says:

    “……too many better shortstops who are better..” Ouch.

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  10. adohaj says:

    I’ll draft him in two years when his stock is low and he will break out

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