The Mets Second Base Situation
It’s a situation if you call it one, but it could also be a quagmire or a black hole too. The Mets are having open tryouts for second base next year, and the contestants are… shall we say, underwhelming. Still, it’s interesting just because these guys are all similarly challenged, what with the limp noodlery at the plate and all. Someone has to win and that someone might just be relevant in a really deep league, right?
The manager won’t help much, it seems:
“Hernandez is playing pretty good,” Manuel said. “I kind of like what I’m seeing with him. I think Tejada could use a breather here and there. So I’d like to see what we get from that combination. And we still have Louie [Castillo]. We still have [Joaquin] Arias. So we’ll see how it fits going down the stretch.”
Luis Castillo
The old man is suddenly the dark horse in this scenario, but he might provide the team’s best chance to actually get a 100 wRC+ offensive line from their second base spot. On the other hand, it’s probably not happening as the power as completely left him (.033 ISO, .061 career) and he’s had line drive rates around 15% three of the last four years, so the BABIP has started to come down (.257 this year, .329 career, .267 in 2008). His defense looks scratch by the numbers this year, but after two years of declining UZR/150s, it’s probably best that Castillo see his playing time reduced.
Joaquin Arias
Spiderman doesn’t walk, like at all. But he’s quick (like a spider?), and could someday put together a BABIP-influenced league-average second baseman line with perhaps a little less on-base percentage at his peak. It wouldn’t be impossible for him to do something like .275/.315/.390 with a bunch of steals. He’s had 47 of those suckers over the last two years in Triple-A. But with his approach at the plate, a lot of luck would have to factor into him even putting up anything close to the league average. He’s probably a backup too.
Ruben Tejada
Since his first season in rookie ball, Tejada has also eschewed the walk. He didn’t hit average walk rates in Single-, Double- or Triple-A. He also had a career ISO of .075 in the minor leagues (and flyball rate that fell as he advanced, which seems to predict little future power), so he kind of looks like a younger Castillo without the walks and a little better defense. The defense is the reason management thinks he is best candidate for this year, but the offense will limit him to a backup most likely. If only he walked more, or even had the exciting speed of Arias, he would have a secondary skill beyond defense and upside for more value.
Daniel Murphy
Murph has done everything the team has asked of him, with moves from left field to first base on his resume already. Might he move to second base? He had two games at the position of his eight total games at Triple-A this year, and the team could definitely use his bat at the position if the glove can fit. A career .275/.331/.437 line would play much better at second base and that above-average isolated power (.161) probably represents the most power they could get from the candidates. The question his glove represents is a tough one to answer. Total Zone numbers had him as a scratch defender at third base in the minor leagues, and small samples in the major leagues have shown him to be a good first baseman and a poor outfielder. Even if it seems unlikely that he would be a good defender at second base, it’s worth remembering back to his days as a third baseman before counting him out completely. He’ll have the AFL to show he can be a decent second baseman, and if answers that in the affirmative, he might actually be the front runner in the spring.
Luis Hernandez
Hernandez is a 26 year old with almost 900 career minor league games and a career .250/.302/.331 line that does not even hold water in this light-hitting group. He has played his high-contact game into some decent batting averages the last two years, if light on the power and OBP. He’s a little like Arias without the speed, but he does have one thing over the spidery one: he can play shortstop. At least, Total Zone thinks he can. if the backup second baseman is supposed to be the backup shortstop, which makes sense from a roster flexibility standpoint, then Hernandez might actually win a spot on the team next year.
Reese Havens
Havens is by all accounts the future at the position for the Mets. He’s done some nice things, but it’s important to keep down expectations considering he hasn’t yet compiled more than 360 at-bats in a single year. Injuries have been a problem. Though his biggest sample – High A St. Lucie – doesn’t seem great at first blush (.252/.363/.431), the Florida State League is a notoriously tough league and he showed a nice eye at the plate (55 walks against 73 strikeouts in 353 at-bats). This year he really upped the flyball rate and the power before succumbing to injury yet again. The lack of at-bats make it hard to know exactly how special Havens is, but what he’s shown so far (12% career MiLB walk rate, .206 ISO) is enough to prove that he has the highest upside of this group. Most likely, the Mets start the season with something like Murphy and one of the better defenders (Arias, Tejada or Hernandez) splitting time while Havens proves his mettle and comes up later in the season, although this analysis assumes that the Mets can treat Castillo as a sunk cost and let him go, which is no sure thing given the Mets history. Act accordingly.
Daniel, not David Murphy.
Is Justine Turner not even worth mentioning? He did have the best hitting line of any of these guys this year.
worth mentioning, yes. But I think he’s in the Havens class, and Havens has shown a better walk rate and similar power, so I think Havens is the guy they will go with if they go with a young guy.
How can you write off Justin Turner that easily? Aside from actually staying on the field and playing in AAA (both of which Havens has never done), Turner posted a .333/.390/.516 line in 348 PA for Buffalo this year. Those numbers would play at 1B, let alone 2B. And while his 2010 with Buffalo has been his most productive stint as a pro, it’s not like he’s floundered before now. He’s posted a wRC+ greater than 110 every season as a pro. I won’t argue that Turner’s the better player or prospect (compared to Havens), because Havens has the kind of special power potential that rarely comes along in a middle infielder. But Turner is the one that has healthy and has succeeded at AAA. Havens may be the future at 2B for the Mets, but Turner should be the present. It’s a crime of ignorance that he’s not getting these September ABs, and instead they’re going to Castillo, Tejada, Hernandez, and Arias. Because Turner is far and away the Mets’ best option heading into 2011. It’s not even close.
I think it’s fair to say the Mets won’t spend any money at the position, so one of these guys is almost certainly the starter in 2011.
That’s not to say Murphy or Havens wouldn’t be a massive upgrade on the 0.572 OPS the Mets have gotten out of second base.
The thing is, 2nd base is a very shallow position in baseball. It’s not typically a power position and many teams have holes there (a quick survey of 2nd basemen reveals the lack of depth – Ellis, Kennedy, Miles/Schumaker, Keppinger, Belliard, etc. are all major pieces of their respective teams). So, if the Mets have multiple holes to focus on, it makes sense that 2nd isn’t a priority.
Now, that being said, I think it is possible to develop premium talent at 2nd. But the Mets refuse to go over slot in the draft. The only way they can develop premium talent is if they get lucky. Havens could pan out, but with the way the Mets have drafted, he would be the exception rather than the rule.
So what we’re left with is a situation in which the Mets lack depth in the farm system (unless they get lucky), and don’t see 2nd base as a priority given the other holes on the team.
2nd base looks to be an issue for the next decade at this rate.
“It’s not typically a power position and many teams have holes there”
Not many teams have the worst OPS of any team at a given position (by a wide margin) AND play one of the worst defenders there (Castillo).
Mark Ellis would look like Chase Utley from our perspective.
The rest of your points are valid, obviously.
I think they actually let Castillo go and sign Hudson (finally) to a 2-3 year deal. Give Havens a few years to develop, and have Hudson filling in during the time.
Good analysis.
With the candidates mentioned, I really think they should look into a trade or the free agent pool. Probably not a lot of high quality guys out there, but if they could maybe convert a shortstop into a 2B, or someone else, maybe they can find a fit.
BTW Eno, Murphy also played 18 games at 2B in Binghamton in 2008.
not to mention that Havens has all of 75 PA above A ball as of now…
Mets are sending Valdespin to the AFL. It seems they are trying to push his timetable.
Keep in mind that Ruben Tejada is about 3-4 years younger than Havens…and 5 years younger than Turner…and currently has more MLB experience than both…If Tejada works on his game over the winter and comes into this spring beasting…we could have an interesting dilemma. he has at times looked over-matched however I have also seen him turn out some great quality AB’s for a 20 year old facing MLB hitters in the NYC spotlight for the first time.
Tejada is also an excellent shortstop. They might end up trading him to a team that needs a shortstop if they extend Reyes.
Excellent analysis. I do agree with theperfectgame that Justin Turner should get a very hard and serious look, but if I was a betting man I would lean towards a platoon of Murphy and Tejada being the duo the Mets go with.
Shouldn’t this article be titled “The Mets Second Base Shituation”?
Please god not orlando hudson, and not for 2-3 years, over rated D, decling skills, 280/.350/.390 this year, injuries taking their toll, has only gotten 1 yr deals last two years, going to be 33 years old, wait your right sounds about right for mets to jum in for 3 yrs 20 mil!!
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I think Josh Satin warrants mentioning, too. Though not much with the glove, he’s been okay and hit about .320 for Binghamton, with a .400 OBP. He’s a bit old at 25, but he’s hit at every level so far and also gotten on base at a pretty high clip. He’s a doubles machine and starting flashing a little home run power towards the end of the year. He’d be an upgrade over what they’ve been going with.
they should get o-dog or akanori iwamaura