The New Nate McLouth

Dude is 31 years old. Nate McLouth probably isn’t a new player. But there are reasons to believe in him, to believe in the changes he’s made.

Just look at his plate discipline stats and you might think there was an error. Some sort of reversal perhaps. His walk rate (15.7% this year) is where his strikeout rate should be (17.1% career). And his strikeout rate (9%) is where his walk rate should be (10.1% career). It’s a bit too early to believe in the walk rate, but it’s close enough to his peak numbers that it’s fine. He’s always been more of an asset in on-base percentage leagues anyway.

It’s the strikeout rate we’re asking about. It’s never been this low, and we’re twenty or so plate appearances past the reliability threshold for strikeout rate. And, at the basis of the strikeout rate are two things that are the first stats to become interesting:

Swing % (swings/pitches) – under 40 PA
Contact % (ball in play + foul / swings) – under 40 PA

Nate McLouth is swinging less than he ever has. He’s swinging at outside pitches less than he ever has. Once before, he swung at pitches in the zone at the rate he’s showing now, but yeah, that’s at a career-low too. And it’s working, as he’s making contact at a career-best rate. His 3.1% swinging strike rate is actually seventh-best in the majors, at home with such contact hitters as Martin Prado and Marco Scutaro.

Basically, McLouth has quit swinging at pitches that are down in the zone. These swing heat maps (thanks to BaseballHeatMaps.com) compare McLouth this year to his work in prior years. Blue means he swings less this year compared to years past, and it’s all over his work against lefties (left) and righties (right):

McLouthLeftMcLouthRight

If this new contact approach is costing him power, we won’t know for a while. Power takes the longest to stabilize and all that. But even league average power, with speed, and this new contact rate, that could be an asset in any league even if he doesn’t hit 26 out ever again. And McLouth’s ISO has been just short of the league average in Baltimore.

It looks like we can believe McLouth’s new contact rate. It’s come in a large enough sample, and it’s backed by the heat maps. He’s well on his way to a career-best batting average. Then again, he could hit .265 the rest of the way and still beat his career high in the category (.276). So, be cautious, but consider Nate McLouth (against righties, anyway) a mixed-league relevant outfielder.




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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


18 Responses to “The New Nate McLouth”

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  1. Scott Clarkson says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    I have been beating the McLouth drum in comments at various outlets for the past week or two and am glad to see him get some due at RG. It’s almost a boon to owners that he is being sat against most lefties….those in daily leagues can play accordingly and those in weekly/roto style formats will probably not mind the slight ding in counting stats if it means his BA/OBP are protected/propped up by hitting against RHP 80+% of the time.

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    • fothead says:

      And in roto, you’re picking up McLouth for his SB/Runs, a break even AVG is just fine. The way he’s getting on base and taking 2nd, he can sit twice a week and Ill be fine with that.

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  2. Eno Sarris says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    @yaboynate1 ran his xBABIP with 2012 constants and got .325, so things are really going well for him.

    https://twitter.com/yaboynate1/status/329270354105233408

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  3. dixie_flyer says:

    McLouth and Chris Davis both have much better approaches at the plate than they’ve had in the past…does the Oriole coaching staff deserve any credit for this?

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    • Bill says:

      Maybe they just undid whatever it was the Braves did to break him. They took two successful hitters in 2010, Melky Cabrera and Nate McLouth and turned them both into abysmal hitters. They both saw nearly immediate success again after they left. Something was going on.

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  4. Rufus T. Firefly says:

    Thanks, Eno.

    So what do you think about Mark Reynolds this year? He’s got only 21 K’s in 79 AB’s. Can we believe it?

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    • jon says:

      Thats still over 25% which is nothing to be too excited about. Still its low enough for him to make him usable.

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  5. pand75 says:

    I just offered BJ Upton for Nate McLouth in a OBP points league with Ks against as a negative.

    I’m hoping this works out.

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  6. Alex says:

    Line Drive rate is up at 25.8% too, would think that would have to come down, but further evidence that he really is hitting ‘better’ – seems like he’s being more selective about what pitches he’s swinging at and hitting them harder as a result (and not trying to consciously hit HR’s, as evidenced by a significantly decreased FB rate

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  7. Cecilius Calvert says:

    McLouth followed by Machado has been meaning an early lead for awhile. Love it.

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  8. binqasim says:

    how is masterson for mclouth trade? fair to which side?

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  9. binqasim says:

    who is a better trade piece for zobrist?
    lohse or cobb?
    thanks.

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  10. Adam says:

    I need outfielders and a guy wants me to trade Jean Segura for Mclouth. You guys like that?

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