The Sizemores, Utley and Perez: DL on the DL

Grady Sizemore

Grady is out until opening day with a strained lower back. Grady has played in only 104 games total over the last 2 seasons and is fairly familiar with the being on the DL. Currently, there is no firm time table for his return.

Not a ton was expected out of him this season. Projections have his AVG anywhere between 0.227 to 0.256 with HRs in the low teens. Those numbers seem about right. Also, he is projected to steal between 6 and 8 bases. Those numbers may be on the high side. In 2010 and 2011, he attempted a total of 8 SBs and was only successful 4 times. Last season he was 0 for 2. He no longer has elite speed and is not attempting many stolen bases at all.

A couple of players, one known and the other unknown, should see their fantasy value increase because of Sizemore’s injury. Besides moving over from LF to CF to fill in for Sizemore, Michael Brantley will now be leading off for the Indians. Normally, with Sizemore in the lineup, he batted 2nd or 7th. This move will increase his number of Runs and SBs.

The other player getting an upgrade would be the new LF. Currently the Indians have Aaron Cunningham, Shelley Duncan, Felix Pie and Ryan Spilborghs all contending for the LF opening. Whichever of the 4 wins the job will see additional playing time until Sizemore returns. For owners in deep or AL only leagues, picking up the new LF may be a decent move if the free agent pool is thin.

Scott Sizemore

Scott is supposed to get an MRI on his knee today. Right now he will probably miss up to the first couple of weeks of the season. While not a fantasy star, he does have nice value as a Plug-n-Play guy with 2B (18 games) and 3B qualifications in some leagues.

Chase Utley

Chase has degenerative patellar tendinitis or Jumper’s Knee. It hampers every move he makes and it is not going away. I would just stay away from him completely on draft day. There are plently of young healthy 2B in the league that project to have similar stats. His only value is as a late round flyer and someone will take him before that point in the draft.

Chris Perez

Chris is supposed to be out 4-6 weeks with a strained left side muscle. The team is not expecting him to miss much time at the start the season.

Vinnie Pestano will be the closer if Perez is not ready to start the season (Dan Wade will be covering these 2 pitchers in more detail at Rotographs on Tuesday). Pestano should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues. He is projected to be the better pitcher according to ZiPS:

Name, K/9, BB/9, WHIP, ERA
Perez, 8.2, 4.1, 1.31, 3.79
Pestano, 10.0, 3.7, 1.05 , 3.38

There is a reasonable chance that by the end of the season, even with Perez 100% healthy, Pestano will be the closer.




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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


5 Responses to “The Sizemores, Utley and Perez: DL on the DL”

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  1. Shawnuel says:

    Scott Sizemore is out for the season with a torn ACL, according to MLB.com.

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  2. Nik says:

    Passing on Utley is a mistake

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    • Stuck in a slump says:

      Last year a guy in my keeper league gave up a TON to acquire Utley right after he was diagnosed with patella tendinitis and I panned the deal heavily. Being one who suffers from this myself I can tell you that any amount of work involving your knees can quickly bring you to a grinding halt. Having had to work under low sitting aircraft for 6.5 years day in and day out, my knees were so sore (it kind of feels like a knife being jabbed right under your knee cap) that by the time the weekend came, I would struggle just going to the store. There were times when walking 200 feet from my car to the hangar was too much and I’d have tears streaming from my eyes from the brutal pain I was suffering.

      Utley’s value is down and it will only continue to sink the more he tries to steal or hustle out doubles/triples and slide into bases. Could he still be productive? Yeah, sure he can, but his productivity is going to be seen mostly in his power, and who knows how that will fare when his knees are going to be constantly bothering him.

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  3. kid says:

    I feel for Utley – always seemed like a nice enough guy, played hard and respected his craft offensively and defensively. What will probably be the issue with him for fantasy is that it’s not hard to see a scenario where he can be perhaps be a .360+ wOBA hitter who has his ABs managed to keep him fresh, but lots of fantasy owners will be drafting him as their front line 2B. The knee problems really sapped his power – his HR/FB rates dropped by 50% in 2011.

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  4. gpchurchill says:

    jeff

    have you been able to find any other sources on the web other than the one you’ve linked to which refer to Utley’s condition as ‘degenerative patellar tendinitis’? i haven’t. every other story or report i’ve read refer to his condition as patellar tendinitis. there is a world of difference between the two conditions. briefly, degenerative is far more serious, as the cartilage behind the kneecap is damaged and deteriorates.

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