The Trade Deadline’s Impact on Prospects: Mining the Minors

There are so many ways to evaluate the trades over the past week or so, up to and including trade deadline day itself. In the interest of being as niche as possible, let’s look solely at the fantasy values of prospecty types whose roles for the rest of 2012 only could be — or already have been — impacted by the wheelings and dealings.

The players listed below are ranked in a very rough order of how much fantasy relevance they have from today through the end of this season only, based on a combination of their individual talent and their potential opportunity that opened up in the wake of a trade. Given that there’s only two months’ worth of games left, there’s a considerable skew toward players who have already been called up (or who could be soon), even if their current or future skillset rates behind some of the players below them.

ALREADY UP AND AT ‘EM (OR ON THE VERGE)

Domonic Brown, Phillies OF
Moved: Hunter Pence (to Giants) and Shane Victorino (to Dodgers)
2012 Impact: Not technically a prospect any more, but he’s worth including here. Our very own Eno Sarris covered Brown in depth, and the main takeaway is that even if the wheels have came off his hype wagon in the past year, Brown is still young (24) and has the opportunity (even if he’ll have to deal with Nate Schierholtz being brought in) to make for an interesting gamble in deep mixed leagues simply on the chance that he puts something together over the final 8 weeks.

Welington Castillo, Cubs C
Moved: Geovany Soto (to Rangers)
2012 Impact: If you’re in an NL-only league, especially one that starts two catchers, you should really take a look at this guy. Don’t let the fact that his parents decided to misspell his first name distract you from the fact that he should get the bear’s share of backstop duties for the Cubs. (See what I did there?) He hit a homer in his first start after being recalled, and he has the stick to be the team’s catcher of the future. My good man Mr. Podhorzer had more to say here.

Mark Rogers, Brewers SP
Moved: Zack Greinke (to Angels)
2012 Impact: He may be an injury-waiting-to-happen, but Rogers — a former first-rounder back in (wait for it) 2004 — still has a live arm and looked good in his first start of the season last weekend (5.2 IPs, 2 ERs, 6 hits, 7:1 K:BB). His dicey control (5.7 BB/9 career) makes him a possible blowup, but the righty will get the ball as long as he’s effective and, um, healthy.

Jacob Turner, Marlins SP
Moved: Anibal Sanchez (to Tigers)
2012 Impact: This one is tricky, as there are reports the Fish will bring up not Turner but Brad Hand (3.66 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 as a 22-year-old lefty in Triple-A) to replace Sanchez in the rotation. That might be the case now, but Turner likely gets a handful of starts between now and season’s end so Miami can get a look at its new toy.

Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, Mariners RP
Moved: Brandon League (to Dodgers) and Steve Delabar (to Blue Jays)
2012 Impact: This pair of right-handed fireballers would be competing for the M’s closer job, if only Tom Wilhelmsen hadn’t gone and run with the role. Still, for AL-only owners lusting for high-K relief help and a few holds, these two will be worthy adds.

Trayvon Robinson, Mariners OF
Moved: Ichiro Suzuki (to Yankees)
2012 Impact: Another no-longer-a-prospect guy, but he’s going to see some run in all three of Seattle’s outfield spots and has the ability to swat a few homers and swipe a few bags — while hitting .250 if he gets lucky. Will compete with newcomer Eric Thames.

Moises Sierra, Blue Jays OF
Moved: Ben Francisco (to Astros), Travis Snider (to Pirates) and Eric Thames (to Mariners)
2012 Impact: The Jays already had Anthony Gose up, and Sierra springs up from Triple-A (.289/.360/.472) to help fill in an outfield that was cleared out by trades. Still, with Colby Rasmus, Rajai Davis and Gose in the mix, Sierra’s stay could be over as soon as Jose Bautista is back.

Rudy Owens, Astros SP
Moved: Wandy Rodriguez (to Pirates)
2012 Impact: The first traded player here, Owens came over from Pittsburgh and ain’t much to get excited over (3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.5 K/9), but you know what else isn’t? The Astros’ current five-man of: Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Jordan Lyles, Dallas Keuchel and Armando Galarraga (so that’s where he is these days!).

Brett Jackson, Cubs OF
Moved: Reed Johnson (to Braves)
2012 Impact: On pace for his second straight 20-20 campaign, Jackson is also on pace for about 175 whiffs this year. His power-speed combo would make him a snazzy fantasy asset — provided he can make enough contact for either aspect of his game to matter. The adjustment period to the bigs is likely to be really, really rough.

Gorkys Hernandez, Marlins OF
Moved: Away from Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte (Pirates)
2012 Impact: Minimal, but he gets a mention here if only because the Marlins outfield is in shambles, with Justin Ruggiano as the current “stalwart.” Maybe Hernandez swipes a few bases if you’re desperate in the deepest of deep NL play. Or perhaps you’d just like to roster a guy named Gorkys.

Ryan Wheeler, D-backs 3B
Moved: Ryan Roberts (to Rays)
2012 Impact: Would have liked him more had Arizona just given him a shot rather than trading for Chris Johnson, who despite his hot start in the desert, might only be a slight upgrade, if that.

QUASI-INTRIGUING NEXT-IN-LINERS

Lars Anderson, Indians 1B
Moved: Away from Adrian Gonzalez (Red Sox)
2012 Impact: Once a top ‘spect, Anderson has stalled out and projects to be little more than a second-division starter at best. But first base has been a problem spot for the Indians dating back to, like, Ben Broussard, so maybe there’s a chance for Anderson as the Indians realize their 2012 is more about 2013.

Wily Peralta and Tyler Thornburg, Brewers SPs
Moved: Greinke
2012 Impact: These two are bigger pieces of the Brewers’ future than Rogers is, but that may be the reason they’re being held back at the moment from replacing the team’s top starter. A little more developmental time won’t hurt either, but Peralta is closer to being ready than Thornburg.

Liam Hendriks, Twins SP
Moved: Francisco Liriano (to White Sox)
2012 Impact: Hendriks is looking like the poster boy for Quad-A pitchers, as his fastball isn’t big enough to get big leaguers out (12.6 H/9 in majors) and his command is shaky even if his control is anything but (1.6 BB/9 career). Not worth risking the dent in your ERA at this point.

LOOOOONGSHOTS

Matt Dominguez, Astros 3B
Moved: Chris Johnson (to D-backs)
2012 Impact: Once the Marlins hot cornerman of the future, Dominguez has the glove to play right now, but his bat remains a question mark (.246/.301/.369) that likely won’t get answered this season.

Chris Hatcher, Marlins RP
Moved: Edward Mujica (to Cardinals) and Randy Choate (to Dodgers)
2012 Impact: This converted catcher has taken well to the mound (1.32 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 17 SVs) since converting to a reliever last year, but he’s still unlikely to factor in much down the stretch of 2012.

Justin Wilson and Jeff Locke, Pirates SP/RPs
Moved: Brad Lincoln (to Blue Jays)
2012 Impact: Both are back-end starters, but these two lefties could get the call to help fill the departed Lincoln’s role in Pitt’s pen. Their fantasy value in such a gig, though, would be negligible.

Zack Cox, Marlins 3B
Moved: Hanley Ramirez (to Dodgers) and Matt Dominguez (to Astros)
2012 Impact: Probably not even worth mentioning here, given how rough his 2012 has been (254/.294/.421), but Miami’s third base sitch is currently inhabited by Greg Dobbs, Donovan Solano and Donnie Murphy.

D.J. Mitchell, Mariners SP/RP
Moved: League and Delabar
2012 Impact: Hector Noesi — but worse.

Rob Brantly, Marlins C
Moved: Away from Alex Avila (Tigers)
2012 Impact: There’s something to like here, and getting out from under Avila in The D will help Brantly’s path to playing time. In 2013.

Jean Segura, Brewers SS
Moved: Away from Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick (Angels)
2012 Impact: Not really ready yet, but a September cup wouldn’t be out of the question. Much more value in keeper and dynasty formats, though.