Three Guys I Will Avoid In 2012
Over the last few days, Howard Bender, Chad Young, and Ben Duronio have been writing about three players they will each avoid this season (parts one, two, three, and four), and now I’m going to join in on the fun.
Alex Avila | C | Tigers
Avila, 25, looked completely out of gas in the playoffs last fall after starting 130 of the Tigers’ 162 games behind the plate. He’s always shown the willingness to take a walk (12.5 BB% in the minors) and make consistent contact (18.7 K%), but I worry about his ability to sustain a .366 BABIP with his batted ball profile…
Non-ground balls are conducive to homers and extra-base hits, but also routine outs. The only other qualified hitters to post a sub-40% ground ball rate and a .330+ BABIP last year were Matt Kemp (36.3% and .380), Joey Votto (39.1% and .349), and Alex Gordon (39.5% and .358). I don’t believe Avila is in the class of those three guys as a hitter, plus he’ll have to deal with the wear-and-tear of catching. I expect a .250-ish batting average with 15 or so homers this year, not the .295 and 19 he put up in 2011. That’s still a really good fantasy catcher, obviously. Just not a clear-cut top three at the position.
Craig Kimbrel | RP | Braves
I’m very concerned about the workload. The 23-year-old Kimbrel appeared in 79 games (second most in MLB) and threw 77 relief innings (ninth most) last summer*, so it’s not a surprise that six of the 18 earned runs he allowed came in his final eight appearances (7.1 IP). The guy was simply gassed, but you can take solace in the fact that any fatigue he was feeling did not show up in his fastball velocity…
Kimbrel is also a pretty heavy slider guy, throwing his top breaking ball 30.3% of the time last season. I don’t expect the kid to break down or anything, but I do think he’s at risk of seeing his performance take a significant step back. Given his less than stellar walk rate (3.74 BB/9 and 10.5 BB%), Kimbrel will have to maintain a high strikeout rate (14.84 K/9 and 41.5 K% in 2011) going forward to remain an elite fantasy reliever. Closers are risky as it is, and I feel Kimbrel is riskier than just about every other elite option (specifically John Axford, Mariano Rivera, and Jonathan Papelbon).
* That doesn’t include all the times he warmed up and didn’t get into the game, which I assume you totals more than zero.
Giancarlo Stanton | OF | Marlins
The slugger formerly know as Mike has hit some of the most mammoth and majestic blasts I’ve ever seen. Unfortunately that’s pretty much his only fantasy tool, and they don’t give bonus points for homer distance. Stanton will need some serious BABIP love to raise his batting average north of the .250-.260 range, and he’s not going to steal any bases either. He should top 100 RBI and maybe even 100 runs scored given the improved lineup around him, most notably the addition of Jose Reyes and a full season of non-demoted Logan Morrison.
Stanton’s ZiPS projection (.267 AVG, 37 HR, 97 RBI, 87 R) isn’t substantially better than Mark Reynolds‘ (.218/35/88/85) or Paul Goldschmidt‘s (.250/30/92/77), and yet their ADP tells a different story. Mock Draft Central has Stanton at 26, Reynolds at 116, and Goldschmidt at 144. Banking on potential is one thing, but you can easily do the same for Goldschmidt while Reynolds has the longer track record (one of only seven players with 30+ HR in each of the last three years). I love me some Giancarlo, but be careful not to overrate the massive dingers. The lingering knee issue is just one more reason to pump the brakes.
Awesome. I don’t have any of them on my Fantasy Team.
I haven’t seen anywhere where Avila is being drafted as a top 3 Catcher. He usually slots in between 6 and 8. Seems like a fine value in that range.
I’m probably missing something here, but if you’re playing 5×5, Reynolds batting average is 50 points below Stanton’s. It might not warrant reaching 90 picks, but the 50 basis points of batting average have to be worth something. I can still place in the top 75th perecentile with a guy hitting 267, I probably can’t with a guy hitting 218.
Not to mention, what is your confidence interval Reynolds is going to hit 35 HRs?
Pretty high actually
Really really high!!! Dude is a monster, he just swats at the flies around the ball every once in a great while.
As far as Reynolds v. Stanton. Reynolds is absolute poison in H2H. He gets homers, sure, but his horrid average doesn’t make it worth it and he doesn’t get enough RBI or runs to really offset it.
Stanton isn’t exactly Miguel Cabrera in the batting average category.
Interesting…. verrry interesting. The comparison to Reynolds is especially informative. People are valuing Stanton’s lineup impact and upside quite a lot. IIRC Shandler speaks highly of his speed as well as overall upside, so there’s lots of love going around. I prefer my early pick OF to give me steals, so I think Reynold’s production at 3b later in the draft will be something to target. I’ll address MI while others look to Stanton.
People probably just like Stanton because he put up a .271/.396/.565 Post-ASB line as a 22 year old
Yea I have to say I quite disagree regarding stanton. A guy who is hitting 270 is far different then a guy hitting 218… His career batting avg in the minors over 1200 ABS was actually .274. If you can’t take that with your 35 hrs then you probably never get anyone who hits over 30 hrs.
This entire “players to avoid” series is… one to avoid altogether…
I wonder if I could factor in a bonus HR distance category in the fantasy league I manage…
My favorite comp for Stanton is Adam Dunn – 40 HR power with a .250-.260 batting average. What is driving the obsession with the AFKAM? He’s below average (or neutral at best) in batting average, won’t steal bases, and hasn’t shown to be better than neutral in scoring runs in the Majors. So he’s basically good for Power, and an assumed contribution in RBI (had 87 last year, and Fans project him for 118(!) this year). To justify his draft spot he’s going to have to hit 45 HR or knock in 120 runs.
you don’t think he is capable of hitting 45 HRs or driving in 120 runs??
35-110 with a .265 BA would satisfy his draft spot. I don’t think it’s too far-fetched to assume he reaches those numbers. I want to know what kind of crazy math you’re using to come up with .260-45-120 as only being the 26th player off the board. If he did that he’d have sure-fire first round value.
right, and everyone saying he will improve is not just the age bias, this man has plus-plus power, which, from a numbers standpoint, he hasn’t tapped into as much as he could.
Because guys who hit 35HR at 21 are few and far between. I do think he’s going kind of early in some drafts, but in comparing him to Adam Dunn, who in his prime was consistently going 40/100/100/.250, you’re making the case that Stanton is worth a top 30 pick.
Those numbers are alot more impressive today, when 40HR is much more of a rarity than they were when Dunn was doing it, especially from an OF.
I wish you were in my league and picked right in front of me and passed on Kimbrel because I will be more than willing to pick him. I think the Braves’ bullpen will be a lot deeper this year with the return on Medlen and thus Oventbril will all pitch less. Kimbrel is only 22 or 23 and figures to get even better in my book.
Thoughts on difference between Teixeira and Stanton?
There are less good 1B…. but otherwise they are going to be basically the same player. Stanton probably with a little more power.
If you believe in SGPs, Reynolds’ loss of 50 points in average to Stanton costs roughly 3 fantasy points in the standings, compared head to head.
Wow, you don’t really understand how to evaluate batting average in Roto, do you?
Wow, another terrible article by the morons at Fangraphs. These idiots have terrible articles and even worse rankings. How in the hell would Avila be considered a top 3 catcher by anyone. Kimbel will be a top five closer by the end of the year and Giancarlo will be a top 10 OF. These guys should get the MLB package in their mommies basement.
So you can predict the future?
Either you’re a troll or a jerk…either way, YAWN…
You definitely have a right to be upset. If I were you I would never waste money on site like this again
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As funny as you think that is you do realize they sell a product here he may have spent money on?
does a top 10 OF deserve to be drafted top 25 overall?
Got avila on my team, didnt want him, i have a good team but he is a weakness, would you drop him for Doumit, Mesoraco, Ramon Hernandez or Hundley?
Lucky me its a one C league.
Avila is significantly better than all those players…at least right now. Avila’s .275, 15 HR, and good R/RBI won’t hurt you at catcher. Those other players will get a lot fewer R and RBI and may hit for a worse average.
there’s a difference between not reaching for him, and dropping him for clearly worse options. the guys you’ve listed are mostly waiver fodder, avila is must-own in all leagues.
i’m a big fan of this series. while i disagree on your view of stanton, i love hearing the dissenting view. young players don’t develop in a linear fashion and sometimes the groupthink/hype machine surrounding these sorts of guys (cough, heyward 2011) gets a little out of control.
IMO, stanton’s adp is worth talking about. two 5x5mixedroto $ leagues that i’ve drafted in–in the first, someone grabbed him 11th overall. in the other, people took holiday and hamilton and he fell to me at 35. i wonder whether other people have the same experiences…in leagues where the price anchoring effect isn’t seen a lot…which side of his stated ADP do you seem him going more often?
11th overall?? wowza! that’s a bad pick even in a keeper league.
i would have to assume that at least one of: ellsbury, upton and cargo were still on the board – and i’m only listing OFs.
for keeper purposes, i’d put stanton in the 25 range (right where yahoo has him, though they have mccutch ranked behind him – which i think is a mistake). i’d draft him no higher than 35th in redraft leagues, and even then i’m more likely to go after a hot arm.
have you ever owned reynolds? i made the mistake of drafting him a few years ago and will never do it again. his BA is such a detriment to any fantasy squad, you’re basically forced to punt the category – or at least struggle mightily – every week. since all other counting stats are closely tied to the ability to hit or get on base, punting BA is not really a viable fantasy strategy.
stanton isn’t a boon in the realm of BA, but he certainly doesn’t bring the drag that reynolds does. a solid cast of BA guys around stanton is enough to make his deficiencies negligible. throw in g-carlo’s power potential and the fact that he’s likely to best reynolds by 15+ in R+RBI, and it’s not even a remotely close comparison!
i probably won’t be reaching for stanton in my draft, but i definitely won’t be looking to reynolds as a source of late power should i miss out early.
Is the difference worth almost 100 picks? I’d say no
Well I’m glad I’m not alone on Stanton. He is a good player but third round seems to early for 30-40 Hr’s and 80-100 RBI. Plus there are a TON of other good options at outfield.
Some good points. This article is good, doesn’t anyone understand what it said? Avila’s BABIP was really high, Kimbral is young and was overworked, Stanton has Power but not a ton else. I like Avila where he’s at mainly because I’m in OBP leagues. I live in Atlanta and watch most Braves games. Kimbral has amazing K numbers believe me, but he does walk a fair amount then relies on Ks to close. Haven’t looked at strand-rate, also Venters is basically a closer too, so leash could be short, and Kimbral draft price is insane. Stanton looks good on paper, and appeared to improve post ASB, but he’s really young, K’s a ton and should be prone to slumps, possibly of the sophmore variety? what if he hits .250/33/108 would that equate to 25th pick? That’s Dan Uggla in the OF guys. Reynolds AVG can be a killer, but he doesn’t bat .218 every year. His career year he batted .260 with 46HR and 25 steals, Curtis Granderson anyone? Both wont repeat that, Reynolds could bat .240 with 35HR and 12-15 steals, would that be value compared to Stanton? IDK, neither will probably be on my team, but I’m sure gonna snag Dunn and Pena for nothing, bench them against lefties and hope for .250 40HR 120 RBI between them.
how many pitches did Kimbrel throw though? It seemed like everytime I’d watch him, he’d only throw 12 or so pitches. If that. Just K, infield fly, K everytime. Course, he also had those innings where it was BB, BB, BB, K, K, pop fly.
http://98ontheblack.com/2012/06/05/frediocy-works-in-kimbrels-favor/