Time to Worry About Brett Lawrie?
Brett Lawrie has been a bit of a disappointment. His performance hasn’t been awful, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations, either. Last season, Lawrie hit .293/.373/.580 in just 171 plate appearances, vaulting him up the fantasy ranks. For a player that many owners drafted between the fourth and sixth rounds, Lawrie’s .272/.315/.369 slash line isn’t offering much value. Unless Lawrie can improve on his current performance, it’s time to start wondering whether he’s still worth starting in shallow leagues.
There are some disturbing trends driving Lawrie’s sophomore slump. Lawrie has been more aggressive at the plate. His walk rate has dropped from a solid 9.4% to a far less exciting 4.7% this year. But while his Swing% is up, Lawrie has actually been more selective on pitches in the strike zone. That means that Lawrie has expanded his zone this season. He’s offering at far more pitches outside of the strike zone this year. Lawrie’s O-Swing% has jumped from 22.3 to 31.6 this year. That aggressive approach is likely contributing to his struggles. If pitchers know he’ll offer at poor pitches, they are probably less likely to throw him anything good.
Lawrie’s complete lack of power is a far bigger concern, though. Lawrie just isn’t hitting fly balls this season. As a result, his ground ball rate has jumped from 38.1% to 52.5%. And since ground ball rate is one of the first things to stabilize, it’s not clear whether Lawrie will hit more fly balls this season. That’s a pretty drastic change for Lawrie, who consistently posted solid slugging percentages throughout his minor league career. Things were especially promising last season, when Lawrie hit 27 home runs combined between Triple-A and the majors. Las Vegas is often mentioned as a launching pad, making his power there somewhat questionable, but Lawrie still has a solid history of power in the minors.
If Lawrie continues to utilize this approach, it’s unclear whether he has much value in non-keeper leagues. Players who rarely hit home runs often use average and steals to produce value in fantasy leagues. And while Lawrie has been solid in the steals department, his average just isn’t high enough to support his current stats.
Based on his limited experience in the majors, it’s unclear whether Lawrie will be able to improve on his average. His .311 BABIP remains fairly close to his .318 mark from last year. But with his change in approach, Lawrie should be expected to hit for a higher BABIP. Since we know that balls hit on the ground typically produce more hits, there’s a chance for Lawrie’s BABIP to rise. He’s also hit a higher percentage of line drives this season, which should also help his BABIP. At the same time, we don’t really know what his normal BABIP should be, so it’s tough to guess whether his average will actually improve.
Unless you’re in a keeper league, it might be time to pick up another third baseman. Lawrie’s performance has been fine, but unspectacular. He’s still worth holding onto in case he starts picking things up, but his stats have been unusual this season. Since we don’t have a large sample of data with Lawrie in the majors, it’s tough to know whether he’ll pick things up again. Until Lawrie starts hitting more fly balls, you might be better off finding a replacement and hoping he turns things around.
I was a big believer in Lawrie, drafted him in a couple leagues and traded for him in a 3rd league.
I’ve now traded him away in 2 of these leagues and have him benched in another
I still think he can turn it around, especially on a team that seems to really embrace a fly ball approach but he’s not untouchable anymore.
I think you’re exactly right, which is why this is a decent buying opportunity, especially for those who didn’t completely overspend to get him (who, I assume, would be less likely to sell low on him). The reason: Lawrie’s SB actually make him sneaky valuable, even if he hits fewer than 10 HR ROS. Additionally, if he improves the plate discipline/walk rate and then OBP comes back up, 15+ SB ROS isn’t unreasonable IMO.
One of the best things I did was trade Lawrie and Cano for Votto and Holliday. Wouldn’t have been possible without the hype Lawrie had coming into the season.
I’d reserve judgement, he has been moved up to leadoff and looks like a completely different player.
His pace so far this season, over a full 162 games, would put him at .275 BA, 14 HR, 23SB, 70 RBI, 84 R. No, this isn’t elite, but is it really that bad? Ryan Roberts had almost the same counting stats in 2011 but with a .249 average…and he finished 10th at the position. If Lawrie keeps his average up, he’s got value.
Of course he has “value,” but not at where people drafted him. Your goal is always draft a player who you think will outperform him draft slot.
To get “value” back as a fourth round pick he has to put up some pretty good numbers, I didn’t see it happening and avoided him on all drafts. This is where draft hype gets out of control.
Agreed – that’s a solid line. People always panic when a guy has more SB than HR and more runs than RBI, but in a standard 5×5, all stats are equal. Obviously not 3rd round value, but considering he is healthy and playing, he has had more value than Longoria, Zimmerman and Panda.
Speculation rather than causation, a caveat. Lawrie seems to be getting down in the count early and often, which I suppose probably has something to do with his aggressive in-zone approach. It’s worrisome to see Lawrie’s numbers against FF (as per TL): In 2012, almost 71% of FF are ending up as strikes, versus 63% last year. He’s fouling off 23% of FF in 2012, too. He’s really fared no better against the slider or the change, as the numbers seem to theoretically point to him making contact with *pitcher’s pitches.” The Jays seem to preach, “Wait for your pitch, and beat the piss out of it,” but Lawrie is doing everything but this. He’s routinely making crappy contact, and I’m not sure if it’s because he repeatedly puts himself in a count where he needs to protect or because he’s just not getting the bat on the ball all that well. Who knows.
Jason Heyward 2.0
Well, he’s 14th ranked 3B in Yahoo! It’s not like your finding guys left and right on the wire to start in front of him.
For keeper and dynasty leagues, note that Dave Cameron selected Lawrie with the 25th pick in last week’s FG Franchise Player Draft.
Will he get benched?
If he’s going to be in the line up everyday (which he has), the counting stats should be palatable…
Highly unlikely he gets benched.
his defense will keep him in the jays lineup, unless he just gets worse and worse, which hopefully he won’t do
The only way he gets benched is if he gets suspended again or if he has been given a day off…
Been waiting for this article! Means it’s time to buy low on Lawrie! He’s shown the crazy damage he can do in spurts when he takes the right approach. I’d bet on him doing that at some point in the remaining 70% of the season.
exactly. Lawrie is not going to have a .108 ISO all season long. He’s got too much power. He goes on a two-week tear with 4-5 HR and all of a sudden things look fine.
he’s sneaky-valuable in fantasy even if he’s not a 25 HR guy, stolen bases are rare at 3B and a final line of 75 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 25 SB with a .280ish AVG is VERY valuable. That’s like a SSChoo line at 3B. If his power rebounds a bit as ZiPS ROS expects and he finishes with around 18-20 HR and 80+ R / 75+ RBI then even more so.
Someone in my deep league put Kung Fu Panda up for trade. I have Lawrie but making that trade doesn’t seem palatable. Thoughts?
You have other players on your roster right? Maybe the guy who owns Pablo Sandoval does too? Provocative, I know..
Actually, now is the opportune time to STOP worrying about Brett! Since returning from his suspension he has worked on some thing with his swing and has actually been hitting significantly more fly balls. This month alone (small sample size), he has increased his flyball rate from 27.6 in May to 48.5 in June. As well, his walk rate in June is 9.5 vs. only 3.1 in May (he has 4 this month and only had 3 all of May). All his stats are trending in the right direction, and I expect him to continue improving his approach at the plate. Only concern is the steals (he has already been caught 5 times and apparently John Farrell is no longer giving Lawrie the Green Light. Expect May/June be good to Lawrie owners (barring another suspension/injury)
Being near Toronto there are more than a few BJ fans in my league, myself included. In a 5 keeper league this offseason, I traded Lawrie and a 5th (turned out to be Carl Crawford) for Stanton. I then drafted Moustakas 83rd to fill the gap. Moustakas has played just as well. Upon making the trade I was told I was stupid by a few ppl. Thats how dumb Canadian baseball fans can be. Glad Im not one of them. Stanton to hit 700??
I actually see “Moose’s” number to drop (he has a too high a BABIP considering his extreme FB%) so expect a drop in average. However, I take real issue with you calling Canadians dumb (being one myself). As you can see from this article, many people expect Lawrie to perform better than this (not just Canadians). As well, its a keeper league, meaning that what happens in 2 or 3 years is just important as the first 200 PA of this season. Try and remember that in 2 years time buddy. So just try and judge each person on their own, rather than applying a blanket stereotype (just like how I won’t assume all people names Jason are dumb bigots)!
Aren’t we all BJ fans?
Having watched pretty much every one of Lawrie’s ABs in his MLB career, it’s really a case right now of him just not having good pitch selection… He’s deciding if he wants to swing or not before the pitcher releases the ball and that’s about it…
From each AB that lasts more than 2 or 3 pitches you can tell if he’s in swing mode or take mode and he doesn’t change during the AB…
He’s a kid, he’s got a lot to learn and he’s going to be fantastic in the long run, but he needs to adjust during at-bats…
Personally, I always worry about Brett Lawrie. What does he dream about? Is he eating enough? Is his dad proud of him? Does he think about me?
Chill out, people. In the last month he has 20 Runs scored, 11 XBH and is hitting .308.
Non-keepers can still use this guy every day. The author is a fear monger.