Todd Frazier Wishes You All Good Mental Health

Okay, so it’s the wrong Frazier/Frasier. The point is, if you were lucky (or smart) enough to grab Todd Frazier to hold down the hot corner in any of your fantasy leagues, then your mind was at least at ease. While he was ranked in the top 25 for third basemen this year — albeit barely, coming in at 23rd — that does not do him justice.

Frazier accumulated a 5×5 line of 19 home runs, 55 runs, 67 RBIs, a solid .273 batting average and even stole three bases too. Normally those numbers wouldn’t be worth noting from a corner infielder, however Frazier racked up those counting stats in just 422 at-bats spread across 128 games. That is fewer AB’s than anyone above him with the exception of Jose Bautista.

The breakdown of Frazier’s production is the most curious part of his 2012 campaign. Below is a table of his home and road splits.

  BB%   K% AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA wRC+ PA
Home  7.4%  21.3%  .258  .317 .469  .786  .211    .337    109  230
Away  8.1%  23.0%  .286  .345 .526  .871  .239    .371    131  235

In essentially the same number of plate appearances, Frazier hit much better away from the cozy confines of Great American Ballpark. His platoon split wasn’t much to consider, as he hit right-handed pitchers at a 117 wRC+ and left-handed pitchers to the tune of a 128 wRC+ mark. The big difference, as usual when numbers are broken up into small sample size, is BABIP. At home he posted a below average .289 and on the road he had a .342 BABIP (we’ll dive into his projection in an upcoming series in conjunction with FanGraphs+). With barely 230 PA’s for both home and away, I’m willing to write off the nearly 100 point OPS difference as statistical noise. After all, Great American Park is a strong right-handed hitters park.

Another remarkable achievement by Frazier was his extra-base hits that weren’t home runs. In addition to his 19 dingers, he also cranked 26 doubles and six — yes, six — triples. Six triples ties Frazier with Andrew McCutchen, Ichiro Suzuki and Ben Revere. As a final tidbit, Frazier hit more triples than Carlos Gonzalez.

Frazier’s ability to drive runner’s in despite hitting down in the order is another strong accomplishment. He most commonly hit seventh, occasionally sixth, and still was able to rack up a respectable RBI thanks to his .225 ISO, good for the fourth best mark on his team (minimum 400 PA’s). As a whole, MLB third basemen hit a mere 100 wRC+ and posted a .320 wOBA. Frazier’s 120 and .354 marks, respectively, blow those out of the water.

For context, Frazier received 70 less plate appearances than Alex Rodriguez but still managed to post more RBI’s and more home runs. Frazier also had more RBI’s, home runs, hits and posted a higher wOBA than Pablo Sandoval in a similar number of PA’s. He tied Kevin Youkilis in home runs and hit 40 points higher than him too. All of those names are known and highly owned fantasy third basemen and Frazier posted numbers that beat out many of them.

Frazier displayed a league average walk rate that worked well to serve his excellent power hit home runs and doubles as well as surprising speed to leg out triples and nab the (very) rare base. All told, over the course of a single season Frazier went from undrafted and unknown to being sought after and viable at the third base position.




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10 Responses to “Todd Frazier Wishes You All Good Mental Health”

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  1. Matt says:

    Recently read an article on rotoprofessor comparing Seager to Frazier for 2013 – gave the nod to Seager in 4 out of 5 roto categories, include power! Thought that was crazy.

    Won’t bore with the details of our escalating salary and franchise player status, but in an 8 category, 12 team, 12 keeper league where Frazier has a good contract is he worth keeping? In a vacuum, is he one of the best 144 players for 2013?

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    • David Wiers says:

      What are the extra offensive categories? TB? OBP? OPS?

      You know me, I need all the details. Sorry, I just don’ feel comfortable without knowing more about your league.

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      • Matt says:

        Categories are: H, D+T, HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG and BB.

        Frazier is $2.25 for me. $100 cap. Have no other 3B to consider keeping.

        Start 2 at each position, 5 OF and 1 UTL.

        Final two spots would come down to Simmons for $2.25, Frazier for $2.25, Rosario for $0.50 or Frieri for $2.25.

        Thanks!

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      • David Wiers says:

        I’d definitely keep Rosario at that price. As for Frazier, yeah, I think I would keep him at 2.25.

        That 2.25 represents 1/45th of your overall budget. Given that the talent pool will be thinned out (due to people keeping the high-upside players and top tier producers) then to me, it is an easy call to spend that relatively insignificant amount to hold on to a useful and virtually guaranteed starter.

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      • Matt says:

        Great – thanks. Was leaning Frazier and Simmons – but already have Reyes I’m keeping at SS and no 3B or C I’m keeping… Wasn’t feeling too great about Frieri. Appreciate the input!

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      • David Wiers says:

        The way I operate, I punt catcher usually. But Rosario at that price is too good to pass up.

        Unless of course, you see someone in your league making “those eyes” at Rosario. If so, by all means trade Rosario and laugh all the way to the bank.

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  2. Dudley says:

    but will he get regular PT next year? WTF was dusty thinking, starting Rolen in front of him?

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  3. Bill says:

    I feel he’s a great value for next year, the power might regress slightly, but with a full schedule he should be able to hit .275 again with 25hr’s, with some upside. However, where Dusty puts him in the lineup will really navigate how well he does with R/RBI, and with Philips, Votto, Bruce, Ludwick and new leadoff hitter? and Cozart that could be a logjam. If he hits 2nd or 5th, great value, but who knows with Dusty.

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    • David Wiers says:

      I’m very anxious to see where ZiPS (and other projection systems) have in store for Frazier. I agree that .275 with 25 homers seems plausible and has room for more.

      And yes, I think that where he hits is of course important. Now that he isn’t a rookie, maybe Dusty won’t hate him so much.

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