Trade Me Max Scherzer
Even with all that we know about ERA and how questionable it can be in evaluating the value of a pitcher, a 4.98 mark is still pretty ugly, especially in the lowered offensive environment we’re seeing this year. In fact, it’s so ugly that it ranks among the bottom 10% or so of all qualified major league pitchers, mostly above struggling youngsters like Jake Arrieta, Luke Hochevar, Hector Noesi, & Mike Minor, along with whatever it is that’s ruining Tim Lincecum‘s career. It’s not a great group to be in, but for Detroit starter Max Scherzer, that 4.98 stands out as a phenomenal reason to target him as the trade deadline nears.
If you look at that list of poor ERA starters, two things immediately stand out about Scherzer. First, his FIP is a much more reasonable 3.76, one of the highest ERA-FIP differentials in the game; second, his K/9 rate is an outstanding 11.36. Other than Stephen Strasburg‘s 11.81, no other starting pitcher in baseball has a higher mark, and I’m guessing you could win a lot of bar bets by knowing that the highest K rate in the American League belongs to Scherzer, not Felix Hernandez or Yu Darvish or Justin Verlander.
Of course, you don’t get to such a high ERA by accident, and in Scherzer’s case, there’s some pretty obvious reasons behind that. You can point to his 1.39/9 homer rate, high even for a pitcher who doesn’t have the built-in advantage of Comerica Park, and his .359 BABIP, far above his career mark of .318. The BABIP gap may be a little tough to fully overcome, given the atrocious defense the Tigers roll out behind him on a nightly basis, but everything else is trending in the right direction.
Part of the trouble with the perception of Scherzer is that his first start of the year was a nightmare, having allowed seven earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings against Boston on April 8. Take out that one start, and his ERA is all the way down to just 4.40 since. That disastrous game meant that it took him until May to get his ERA even below seven, and while that may be unfair to judge him on based on what we know about small sample sizes, it’s still what was next to his name on the television graphics every five days, and that absolutely has not helped him in the eyes of fans. (As one of just many examples of this, one I notice because I’m a Dodger fan, it seems that few Los Angeles supporters have noticed that Bobby Abreu is hitting just .192/.292/.295 since May 31, since his great start for the club meant his line looked excellent on television every night. First impressions are always taken more seriously than they should be.)
As you can see, Scherzer’s been a different pitcher since the midway point of the first half:
First 8 starts: 6.26 ERA, .867 OPS against, .410 BABIP
Second 8 starts: 3.88 ERA, .705 OPS against, .318 BABIP
Even the home run problem is starting to turn, because after allowing 13 in his first 12 starts, he’s given up just one in his last four – and even that one came off the bat of Andrew McCutchen, one of the best young hitters in the game. Scherzer’s luck and performance are beginning to stablize, yet the excellent strikeout rate has remained.
As a cherry on top – for our purposes, anyway – Scherzer missed his last start earlier this week with left hamstring tightness. It’s not expected to be serious, and he is on track to make his next start against Kansas City this weekend, but it does mean he’s showing up on fantasy rosters with a big red “DTD” or “+” next to his name, which always gives an owner that nice feeling of impending doom. So what you’ve got here is a guy who is missing bats better than any starter in his league, is seeing his unreasonable BABIP start to regress, and seems to be undervalued – he’s not even owned in 100% of ESPN or Yahoo! leagues – because of a high ERA and a minor injury.
All that being the case… yes, please, I will buy a Max Scherzer.
Every year I draft him, and every year I sell him.
Him and Liriano kill me.
As for this article, I’ll always like the guy, but I don’t regret selling him earlier. While I love high K’s/9′s, the only way he gets to be a better pitcher is allowing few baserunners, which means fewer opportunities to strike people out, so that number has to come down.
Comparing him to Strasberg, Verlander, or King Felix because of his K/9 rates is silly. They don’t allow they baserunners Scherzer does, and they still do it.
As far as ‘fixing’ his homerun problem, the last 4 game he’s played teams who don’t hit a lot of them: Rays, Pirates, Cubs, and Rockies (played in Chicago). Not buying that either.
Outstanding post, Dan S. You hit all the great counters.
I was more writing that just to validate my own selling of Scherzer (to make me feel better) than to counter anything the author said. If I didn’t look more into it, I’d regret dealing him
I really, really like these articles, and especially with hitters, it makes you think good and hard about who to target on other teams.
Max Scherzer is the anti-Matt Cain. DIPS theory just doesn’t seem to apply to them.
You can have him
Exactly the type of guy to trade to the stathead in your league. I love sabermetrics as much as the next FanGraphs reader, but there’s more to pitching than peripherals.
Brandon Morrow.
does that still apply this year?
No, it doesn’t. That’s the point.
Bet the stathead loves his 3.88 ERA in the AL his last 8 starts.
Isn’t that what fantasy sports is all about? Being a “stathead”?
The problem with Max Scherzer is that when he throws a pitch, he has no idea where it’s going…neither do the hitters, that’s why the K’s will always be there, but his control and tendency to leave pitches up and out over the plate make him a sell guy for sure. I sold him in one league and made sure to avoid him in all others. You can keep him.
He bb/9 is about the same as Lance Lynn and AJ Burnett, who have ERAs a run or more lower. Don’t be fooled by randomness. His ERA was lower than his xFIP in 2010. Nothing in DIPs theory suggests a guy might not have several seasons of high babies, poor d behind him, poor LOB%. Scherzer likely does have some issues with control, runners on etc that may make him underperform, but not to this extent. And given his bb/9 was about 2.5 last year and 3.2 this year, his control issues are overblown.
I moved Peavy a few weeks ago to get him… seemed like a decent sell high buy low.
yikes
noooooooo
I dropped him more than a month ago. No one else has touched him. I keep looking at the matchups to see if one is too good to pass up, but he’s so unpredictable that I just haven’t been able to pull the trigger.
He seems to play well against teams that don’t hit a lot of home runs…
Well who doesn’t pitch well against teams that don’t hit a lot of Homers Dan??
You’re missig the point dude….
Scherzer vs Arrieta, most maddening pitcher to have on your team?
Scherzer… Arrieta’s never been billed as the second coming, doesn’t ever make preseason sleeper lists, and no one expects him to be a TOR guy pitching in the AL East…Having said that I’ve never owned Scherezer and probably never will…
i have been trying to trade for Scherzer for all these reasons for over a month – but his owner knows how to read peripherals as well as I do and won’t budge on him.
This is my first year playing fantasy baseball…I’ve learned a lot…I haven’t followed baseball, even casually for a few years…sure I follow sports and keep track of how teams are doing a little…but…I took over a keeper team…didn’t do any homework…picked up Scherzer…also picked up Anibal…traded Anibal for Hosmer (at the start of the season)…I couldn’t get any offers for Scherzer forever…then all I got was waiver wire scrap…there is something that doesn’t necessarily show up in stats…it’s a guys “brain”…Scherze doesn’t seem like a guy that can focus when things are going wrong…or perhaps if he’s worried he left the iron on at home before the game…he has his moments where he’s untouchable…anyway…I traded Scherzer/Parker for Anibal…Anibal hasn’t been himself…but he’s at least a good pitcher…Parker is doing well but he’s young…and I have too many good young pitchers on my roster…I overpaid…but I was tired of cringing every time I put Scherzer in the active roster…this is even when he was pitching well…
…the articles here make a lot of sense..and this one too…and I’m learning…
…I learned that if I didn’t get rid of Scherzer when I could, I might not be able to as the season went on…I’ll miss his Ks…but hopefully Cashner will return for the home stretch…
You should use me to end your sentences.
What sentences? ;o)
Maddening Max is extremely prone to getting lit up, often times when you least expect it. Highly flammable, use with caution.
Like Mike Petriello, and unlike the rest of you troglobites, I traded for Max on June 9th. The past 3 months have been glorious, and I bought oh so low for him. Where are the Max haters now, you cave dwellers?
I held on and am reaping the benefits!