Trading: Projections vs Production

This is article four in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

This might be “Public Enemy Number One” when an intelligent owner tries to deal with a, well, less intelligent owner. Smart owners will realize that they are trading for a player’s future numbers, not what he has done thus far. However, most owners want to trade players based on what they’ve done already, even if that’s not what they will be getting the rest of the year.

While using a player’s production to estimate future performance is one way of doing things, it is by no means the best way. When buying low on a players, sometimes it’s best to not tell the other owner that you think they will bounce back and be valuable, because they will make you pay for it. For example: Last season, I had a deal completed that just needed the final touches. The deal was fair as is, but I asked the owner to throw Nolasco in the deal (this was right after he was sent down to the minors), since he was planning on dropping him as part of the deal, anyway. He did, and because of it, the trade ended up being a steal. A player that the other owner had no problem giving up became the biggest part of the deal, for me. If he had known I was targeting Nolasco, the deal may have never got done because I wasn’t willing to pay an extra price for him.

Playing From Different Playbooks
This relates nicely to the points made above. One of the bigger hurdles to overcome in trade talks is being on different pages. For the most part, every owner is going to have a different view of every player. One might see him as a valuable commodity that they’d like to acquire, while others may see him as a pile of junk. If those two owners can get together, a trade can be made. But, that isn’t always the easiest thing. Once and awhile an owner will offer someone they see as a valuable piece to sweeten the pot, but you may not see him as someone you’re interested in.

Trades are the easiest to complete when you are either playing from the exact same playbook, or two polar opposite ones. Anytime you’re in the gray area, it’s going to take a little more work.



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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.


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Rob
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Rob

Any chance these articles could be posted as one large article once the series is done? It’s a little bit confusing to read what appears to be a continuous string of thoughts when it’s broken into 7 individual pieces, without any transition from one article to the next.

Still entertaining though, thanks for the content!

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