If a pitcher gets a swinging strike on strike 1, and gets a grounder to 2B on strike 2, his SwStr% for that batter is 50%.

If a pitcher gets a batter to hit 2 fouls balls, and gets a swinging strike on strike 3, his SwStr% is 33%.

So the SwStr% stat can be misleading within itself. If you want to know who is under/over performing their K/9, run a comparison of 2 strike counts to total K’s, then compare that to SwStr%.

]]>This statement is the most recent line of bull I’ve heard, and I’ve been hearing a lot lately.

There are only 3 outs per inning, so no matter how many batters a pitchers faces in an inning, he only has the potential to strike 3 guys out, without passed balls/wild pitch 3rd strikes.

If a pitcher’s stamina were infinite and there were no bull pens, this may be an accurate statement, but in reality, the more batters you face the, shorter the pitchers outing will be, which will pull the K/9 back in line.

]]>So it seems from my brief look into this that over/under performing this regression is sustainable over a season/career.

]]>The other factor would be Foul%. I’ve seen regressions where Foul% has an r^2 in the low double-digits with K%, so that’s another avenue.

What I’d really be interested in is looking at K/9 vs K% (K/PA) within buckets, to try and see the biggest single factor for the difference in the two. Obviously, the more batters you face per-Inning, the more chances you have to strike somebody out, so K/9 can be very misleading.

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