Updated Consensus Ranks: Catcher

There’s a little more movement in these rankings.

Maybe it has to do with the fact that these guys are, you know, catchers. For one, their full-season sample size is smaller than that at any other position. If BABIP takes 500+ plate appearances to stabilize, you might get three catchers in a given year that achieve that level of playing time. It’s rough on the knees. Plus, since it’s such a defensively demanding position, catchers aren’t known for their sticks. Somehow that seems relevant here — maybe if the group isn’t known for their offense, as a whole, then a small ripple in their projections can mean that the rankings have to change in a big way.

Up second are the guys that most often touch the ball second on any given play.

In the top ten, the changes are slight. Just a little reshuffling of the top ten, with a new entrant that, well, would probably have been higher up if we’d had our druthers the first time around. Then again, there’s a case to be made that Jesus Montero shouldn’t have been ranked as a catcher — in some leagues he’s not even a catcher yet, already one month into the season.

Then you’ve got your poor performers that are showing poor contact rates. Contact stabilizes a little quicker than most things, so bad strikeout rate early in the season could be bad sign. Congratulations to A.J. Pierzynski, then, for making so much contact. That makes him the biggest (positive) mover in the rankings not playing in Seattle.

Let’s not forget A.J. Ellis, who makes his debut at #29. It’d be higher, but his best attribute — patience — doesn’t figure in prominently in most 5×5 leagues. Salvador Perez looks like a better bet for rest-of-season value, and he’s hurt.


FanGraphs Consensus Rankings:
Catcher
New Last Player Name Eno Sarris Mike Podhorzer Jeff Zimmerman Zach Sanders
1 1 Mike Napoli 1 1 1 1
2 2 Carlos Santana 2 2 2 6
3 6 Buster Posey 3 4 4 2
4 4 Joe Mauer 6 5 3 4
5 3 Brian McCann 5 6 5 3
6 5 Matt Wieters 4 3 7 5
7 NA Jesus Montero 8 8 6 7
8 7 Miguel Montero 7 7 8 9
9 9 Yadier Molina 10 10 10 8
10 8 Alex Avila 11 9 9 10
11 12 Wilson Ramos 9 17 12 12
12 10 J.P. Arencibia 14 12 11 14
13 21 A.J. Pierzynski 12 14 18 11
14 11 Geovany Soto 15 16 13 13
15 13 Russell Martin 14 13 16 18
16 14 Ryan Doumit 17 11 17 17
17 17 Jonathan Lucroy 13 19 14 19
18 15 Kurt Suzuki 18 15 13 23
19 19 Carlos Ruiz 19 21 19 15
20 18 Ramon Hernandez 16 20 23 16
21 20 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 20 18 26 20
22 22 Chris Iannetta 24 23 22 24
23 24 Devin Mesoraco 22 24 21 26
24 25 Josh Thole 21 28 24 21
25 27 Nick Hundley 25 22 27 27
26 16 Salvador Perez 27 33 20 22
27 23 John Buck 26 30 25 25
28 28 Ryan Hanigan 27 25 28 28
29 NA A.J. Ellis 23 29 30 29
30 29 Rod Barajas 28 26 32 30
31 30 Yorvit Torrealba 29 27 33 33
32 26 Miguel Olivo 30 31 29 34
33 32 John Jaso 32 34 31 31
34 31 Jason Castro 31 32 34 32



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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


27 Responses to “Updated Consensus Ranks: Catcher”

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  1. mdecav says:

    Ruiz is still at 19??!?

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      The biggest difference is power and there’s no precedent for this power. He’s also 33, so it’s not a development thing. Rest of season I still have him as a .280 hitter without much power.

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      • jcxy says:

        I agree with you re: Ruiz’s power, but it’s a tough sell that he shouldn’t be ahead of Martin (unless you believe the steals are coming), Arencibia (unless you believe D’Arnaud is definitely not coming before 2013), and especially Suzuki, who looks straight out of that Helen Prejean film.

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  2. donut says:

    Hmmm, Matt Weiters and his .413 wOBA falling from preseason?

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      Guess Zimm thinks he’s banked much of his good. I wouldn’t say that falling a single spot is a big deal though. Still in the same tier.

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      • donut says:

        I’m surprised he didn’t jump up a bit based on his performance thus far. He’s not lived up to (through the roof) expectations so far, but dude is only 25.

        I dunno, maybe I’m crazy but he’s in consideration for the #1 spot to me.

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      • Jeff Zimmerman says:

        To get my ranks, I took the average of their preseason projections and then weighted in how they have done so far this season. I am weighting the preseason rank at 7/12 of their stats and 2012 will by 5/12 at the end of the season. It is much less right now. It is an on going Marcel projection of the player’s talent.

        I used no personal bias, expect for current injury, for any of the rankings.

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      • theeiffeltower says:

        why would you even think of using Marcel for Wieters when everyone knows that he’s a former super prospect entering his prime

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  3. Sean says:

    “Banked much of his good”

    Doesn’t this fly directly in the face of the “gambler’s fallacy”?

    While I don’t subscribe to this theory for baseball, I think a legion of fbb managers do hold it in high regard…

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      What I meant by it is that there isn’t really a true talent change in his mind, possibly, and that if it was luck, it’s over now. But Zimm would have to speak for himself.

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    • KDL says:

      It’s not really the ‘gambler’s fallacy’. At least as I understand, the idea is not: Player X hits 20 HRs a year, so if he already has 10 that’s only 10 more. The idea is that a 20 HR guy will end the year with 26, because he banks 10 early and then hits at his ‘normal’ 20-HR pace. If you can get someone who believes the 30+ HR pace is real…you move that player. So, you’re not really ‘gambling’ that Player X is going to start sucking to balance out the good start. You’re saying his abnormally good start will likely go back to normal levels – which is pretty much the opposite of gambling, in the rhetorical sense.

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  4. El Guapo says:

    Pierzynski over Arencibia ROS? Is that just because of AVG or the eventual call up of D’Arnaud? Or Both?

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  5. rjbiii says:

    In a two catcher OBP matchup league I had Arencibia and Ramos. I dropped Ramos and picked up Ellis reasoning that I liked Arencibia’s streaky power and Ellis would better balance out Arencibia’s terrible OBP than Ramos (the reason I drafted him in the first place) without losing too much in terms of Ramos’ power. These rankings imply that that was a terrible decision. Thoughts?

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  6. Ryan says:

    How does Zach Sanders have Carlos Santana as 6th? Makes no sense to me. I’d love to see a post justifying that. Would be extremely interesting.

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  7. John Stamos says:

    Saltalamacchia’s last name is still too long.

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  8. Eric Dykstra says:

    Wieters dropped, really?

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  9. James says:

    What about Posey’s .370 BABIP, increased k rate, decreased BB rate, and 20% HR/FB rate prompts a move head of those other guys? He’s a regression candidate all the way.

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  10. Hutch says:

    Shows all the dudes who were trying to tell me to keep Avila over Mauer in February.

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  11. JimNYC says:

    Where’s Jose Molina? I’ve got him in one of my wackier leagues — 14 team AL-only, two catchers required.

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  12. Jesus saves . . .your fantasy team says:

    In what leagues is Montero still not eligible at catcher? He got it in my ESPN league last week for 10 games and for most other leagues it was only five.

    You guys should have been ranking him at catcher since the offseason. Most people who drafted him did so because they were getting a premium catcher at a discount and just plugged someone else in for a month.

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  13. vivalajeter says:

    Seems like Catcher is getting to be a much deeper position. In a 10-team league I have Napoli/Mccann. In a 12-team league I have Santana/Montero/Montero. I drafted the back-up catchers because I thought I was getting good value – but I’ve had no success trading them away. When Avila is ranked #10, most teams just don’t need a catcher upgrade.

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  14. JBJESQ says:

    What will it take to make AJ Ellis have a higher rank that Kurt Suzuki? Come on man! I like Napoli, dont get me wrong, probably more than most. What i’d like to know is how much you guys would put up saying Napoli finishes best?

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    • Ivdown says:

      I understand AJ Ellis will not slug .500 this season, but he sure as hell has a good chance to have a .375 or better OBP, and yet he still isn’t above 29? Wow. Come on. 2.5 WAR from this site now, btw. Only about 10 (if that) position players have more than that this season, let alone catchers.

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      • Ivdown says:

        I missed the small line about AJ Ellis and patience and all that, but thus far, I can’t see how he wouldn’t at least be 20th.

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