Updated Consensus Ranks: Outfield
Fridays used to mean shows and bars and friends, but they still hold the same excitement now that I’m a family man (and to tell the truth, they’ll mean shows and bars and friends again some day). The idea that I might have unstructured, unhurried time with my son, and maybe even time for a nap in the backyard with a beer by my side… that’s pretty exciting these days. When did I get this old.
Age has something to do with these ranks. It’s a double-edged sword. Have some years and a track record on you and we’ll give you more leash when you’re struggling. And yet you’ll have those that question if you’re done before your time. Be a young guy on the come and we’ll be tempted to have you number one with a bullet, but reason says that expectations should be tempered, especially those put upon teenagers.
Let’s look at the outfielder rankings, which have some high-profile movers and shakers and some interesting debuts.
Yes, Jose Bautista moved up. Yup. Mostly because Jacoby Ellsbury moved down. Mike Stanton and Alex Gordon are hitting some post-breakout lulls, and Shin-Soo Choo could have dropped further for his troubles. Lance Berkman drops for reminding us that his age will beget injuries.
Obligatory young star paragraph! Bryce Harper and Mike Trout! Gnash teeth, they should be up higher, gnash some more. In this case, caution is still a virtue. These guys are really young, and while you may think a guy that’s just above him in the ranks is much less palatable than the upside of Trout or Harper — I know you’re looking at Duda — take the rankings as a warning. Baseball is really hard and the best prospects take time to make it work. Even Ken Griffey Jr had a meh fantasy season at Harper’s age.
As for the rest of the crew, there’s plenty off fodder for discussion. And in this group, there are actually some guys (Yoenis Cespedes!) that took giant leaps in the rankings. Have at it!
| FanGraphs Consensus Rankings: Outfield |
||||||
| New | Last | Player Name | Eno Sarris | Mike Podhorzer | Jeff Zimmerman | Zach Sanders |
| 1 | 1 | Matt Kemp | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ryan Braun | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | Carlos Gonzalez | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | Justin Upton | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | 6 | Jose Bautista | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | Curtis Granderson | 4 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | Josh Hamilton | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | Andrew McCutchen | 7 | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | 12 | Jay Bruce | 10 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 | Matt Holliday | 9 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 11 | 11 | Hunter Pence | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | 17 | Adam Jones | 13 | 17 | 14 | 9 |
| 13 | 14 | Michael Bourn | 11 | 20 | 16 | 10 |
| 14 | 16 | Desmond Jennings | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | 13 | Mike Stanton | 14 | 13 | 6 | 27 |
| 16 | 15 | Alex Gordon | 18 | 19 | 17 | 15 |
| 17 | 19 | Shane Victorino | 15 | 16 | 25 | 13 |
| 18 | 28 | Corey Hart | 17 | 24 | 19 | 16 |
| 19 | 21 | Nelson Cruz | 23 | 14 | 21 | 24 |
| 20 | 22 | B.J. Upton | 27 | 26 | 23 | 20 |
| 21 | 20 | Shin-Soo Choo | 26 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 22 | 33 | Andre Ethier | 19 | 28 | 35 | 17 |
| 23 | 25 | Brett Gardner | 22 | 27 | 18 | 34 |
| 24 | 30 | Michael Cuddyer | 24 | 18 | 34 | 25 |
| 25 | 23 | Ben Zobrist | 31 | 23 | 29 | 22 |
| 26 | 34 | Carlos Beltran | 20 | 29 | 36 | 23 |
| 27 | 29 | Nick Markakis | 28 | 25 | 28 | 28 |
| 28 | 24 | Lance Berkman | 30 | 22 | 20 | 40 |
| 29 | 35 | Matt Joyce | 21 | 46 | 33 | 21 |
| 30 | 27 | Ichiro Suzuki | 34 | 12 | 41 | 36 |
| 31 | 3 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 41 | 30 | 26 | 42 |
| 32 | 33 | Melky Cabrera | 47 | 36 | 46 | 19 |
| 33 | 31 | Howie Kendrick | 25 | 34 | 30 | 62 |
| 34 | 43 | Logan Morrison | 37 | 33 | 39 | 43 |
| 35 | 39 | Jason Heyward | 29 | 38 | 40 | 46 |
| 36 | 32 | Cameron Maybin | 40 | 32 | 32 | 52 |
| 37 | 18 | Carl Crawford | 42 | 39 | 15 | 65 |
| 38 | 38 | Chris Young | 35 | 49 | 31 | 51 |
| 39 | 41 | Angel Pagan | 46 | 35 | 49 | 38 |
| 40 | 37 | Drew Stubbs | 44 | 55 | 27 | 47 |
| 41 | 52 | Josh Willingham | 32 | 58 | 53 | 31 |
| 42 | 81 | Yoenis Cespedes | 36 | 52 | 60 | 29 |
| 43 | 46 | Nick Swisher | 50 | 48 | 48 | 35 |
| 44 | 26 | Michael Morse | 33 | 71 | 22 | 59 |
| 45 | 50 | Carlos Lee | 54 | 41 | 37 | 54 |
| 46 | 42 | Torii Hunter | 48 | 43 | 42 | 53 |
| 47 | 54 | Austin Jackson | 52 | 53 | 38 | 45 |
| 48 | 64 | Emilio Bonifacio | 49 | 56 | 65 | 30 |
| 49 | 47 | Alejandro De Aza | 51 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| 50 | 56 | Alex Rios | 58 | 31 | 64 | 49 |
| 51 | 44 | Coco Crisp | 59 | 40 | 44 | 60 |
| 52 | 49 | Martin Prado | 53 | 45 | 57 | 48 |
| 53 | 73 | Kendrys Morales | 39 | 47 | 67 | 68 |
| 54 | 68 | Denard Span | 67 | 61 | 59 | 41 |
| 55 | 48 | Lucas Duda | 64 | 57 | 66 | 44 |
| 56 | 87 | Nolan Reimold | 38 | 64 | 90 | 39 |
| 57 | 59 | J.D. Martinez | 65 | 63 | 45 | 61 |
| 58 | 53 | Brennan Boesch | 55 | 51 | 52 | 76 |
| 59 | 57 | Colby Rasmus | 61 | 62 | 56 | 57 |
| 60 | 91 | Mike Trout | 43 | 37 | 96 | 63 |
| 61 | 51 | Jose Tabata | 60 | 44 | 51 | 88 |
| 62 | 45 | Jeff Francoeur | 71 | 54 | 55 | 73 |
| 63 | 55 | Delmon Young | 73 | 42 | 54 | 85 |
| 64 | 95 | Bryce Harper | 45 | 80 | 92 | 37 |
| 65 | 58 | Mark Trumbo | 62 | 99 | 63 | 33 |
| 66 | 40 | Peter Bourjos | 57 | 94 | 47 | 72 |
| 67 | 65 | Jason Kubel | 72 | 59 | 68 | 75 |
| 68 | 62 | Alex Presley | 66 | 65 | 58 | 87 |
| 69 | 61 | Dexter Fowler | 75 | 60 | 69 | 74 |
| 70 | 66 | Vernon Wells | 76 | 66 | 89 | 58 |
| 71 | 36 | Jayson Werth | 106 | 110 | 43 | 32 |
| 72 | NA | Allen Craig | 56 | 69 | 102 | 69 |
| 73 | 67 | Michael Brantley | 68 | 70 | 80 | 79 |
| 74 | 85 | Luke Scott | 78 | 76 | 93 | 56 |
| 75 | 93 | Eric Thames | 82 | 75 | 86 | 66 |
| 76 | 63 | Carlos Quentin | 74 | 100 | 73 | 78 |
| 77 | NA | Andy Dirks | 81 | 78 | 105 | 64 |
| 78 | NA | Tony Campana | 63 | 67 | 103 | 97 |
| 79 | 72 | Jon Jay | 70 | 97 | 61 | 103 |
| 80 | 97 | Juan Pierre | 93 | 86 | 97 | 55 |
| 81 | 98 | Jordan Schafer | 80 | 84 | 99 | 70 |
| 82 | 60 | Lorenzo Cain | 94 | 73 | 78 | 89 |
| 83 | 69 | Alfonso Soriano | 95 | 79 | 83 | 77 |
| 84 | 70 | Jason Bay | 96 | 68 | 82 | 90 |
| 85 | 71 | Yonder Alonso | 79 | 95 | 79 | 86 |
| 86 | 75 | Will Venable | 85 | 92 | 72 | 92 |
| 87 | 80 | Nyjer Morgan | 88 | 107 | 75 | 71 |
| 88 | 76 | Marlon Byrd | 87 | 83 | 76 | 96 |
| 89 | 78 | Brandon Belt | 69 | 96 | 71 | 107 |
| 90 | 74 | David DeJesus | 97 | 82 | 81 | 84 |
| 91 | NA | Ryan Sweeney | 84 | 98 | 100 | 67 |
| 92 | 92 | Chris Heisey | 91 | 89 | 62 | 108 |
| 93 | 88 | David Murphy | 90 | 85 | 77 | 98 |
| 94 | NA | Gerardo Parra | 77 | 90 | 104 | 82 |
| 95 | 86 | Garrett Jones | 83 | 102 | 70 | 101 |
| 96 | 77 | Seth Smith | 98 | 93 | 74 | 94 |
| 97 | 90 | Josh Reddick | 92 | 81 | 95 | 91 |
| 98 | NA | Andres Torres | 97 | 77 | 106 | 81 |
| 99 | 82 | John Mayberry | 89 | 106 | 84 | 83 |
| 100 | 83 | Mike Carp | 101 | 72 | 91 | 102 |
| 101 | 94 | Mitch Moreland | 105 | 74 | 88 | 110 |
| 102 | 89 | Aubrey Huff | 104 | 104 | 94 | 80 |
| 103 | NA | Jarrod Dyson | 86 | 87 | 107 | 105 |
| 104 | 84 | Dayan Viciedo | 102 | 91 | 85 | 109 |
| 105 | NA | Kirk Nieuwenhuis | 99 | 88 | 108 | 104 |
| 106 | 79 | Ben Revere | 103 | 109 | 87 | 106 |
| 107 | NA | Roger Bernadina | 100 | 103 | 109 | 93 |
| 108 | 96 | Ryan Raburn | 108 | 101 | 98 | 99 |
| 109 | NA | Brian Bogusevic | 107 | 105 | 110 | 95 |
| 110 | 99 | Trevor Plouffe | 109 | 108 | 101 | 100 |
not sure if kendrys was ever an outfielder.
qualifies there in at least one of my leagues, don’t know why either
The color coding would be much more useful if it only was used for those who moved more than 1 place in the standings. As it stands now, the drop of Ellsbury ensures that virtually everyone at the top moved up, even though their value is functionally unchanged.
Or maybe make it more than 2 places.
Good idea.
Or a third color. Yellow for trivial changes.
Josh Hamilton ranked 7th… LOL
The rankings of injured players are bizarre. Crawford is still ranked relatively high even though he may not even play before the last 6 weeks of the season (Chris Young is one spot behind him who is due back within weeks), one guy has Ellsbury still ranked 3rd (obviously he just didn’t change from the preseason, but why are you publishing these rankings with these types of errors), and I guess you missed the news on Gardner’s setback. It just screams laziness to publish this type of thing with these errors, especially the Ellsbury one.
Fixed Ellsbury thing. He ended up moving down a spot. Still a great player when in. Crawford swinging a bat next week.
It’s not laziness, it’s a bear. A big bear of a job. Sometimes a guy falls through. No, we didn’t have the ability to get four guys, three of which have day jobs, to update the Gardner thing that just came out.
Fair enough, but then how can we take these ranks and moreover this site seriously with these types of errors? If you guys as fantasy experts all whiffed on the Gardner news and commenters are more up to date with the news then those publishing the articles?
I don’t want to be “that guy” who just crushed you all since after all I am the one on the site reading it. I just think its disappointing because fangraphs is a pretty good site but the fantasy page leaves a lot to be desired.
Looking at it more closely it appears Zimmerman’s ranks just didn’t change from preseason with Ellsbury, Gardner, and Crawford. Sigh.
We’ve been working on these for over a week. We couldn’t get them changed last minute for Gardner. I’m not crushed about that. Ellsbury is a player that was updated on one list I had, not on another. It was an error. I doff my cap to you sir.
It would be much more useful to exclude the ranks that weren’t updated and just use 3, than to materially skew the entire project with 25% worthless data.
I don’t understand a static rank for Brett Gardner, who won’t be back for a while (he just hit a setback). Several of the names after him have him beat on floor *and* upside. Cashing out on Gardner now, even at a slight hit to the March price, sounds like a wise plan to me.
I’m curious for everyone’s thoughts on Gardner going forward, now that he will be out for (at least) another few weeks and assuming one has no free DL slot for him (because it is occupied by the likes of say Ellsbury). I’m muddling through for now with him occupying a bench slot in one league, but it is getting increasingly tempting to drop him in 12-teamers for an unexciting but uninjured alternative, say Carlos Lee.
Why did Logan Morrison move up drastically? He isn’t playing against lefties and he isn’t playing particularly well when he does play. I just don’t see it with that guy.
If you look at the red chunks behind him, I see some big droppers that were ahead of him. I still feel about the same about him as I did before, although I don’t htink he needs to be platooned yet.
Where is Cody Ross?
Newman! I’d put him in the low eighties myself.
And for what it’s worth, Eno, I liked the intro, and the meta talk about how the ranks are made.
Where is Adam Jones? He is a beast! Maybe you were a little early for the libations ;)
or maybe you were! he’s right there!
Umm, at #12? Sounds like the pot is calling the kettle black on the libations.
There is no beer like Alexander Keith’s from Nova Scotia. Best IPA in the world.
Well I sure hope the Keith’s in Halifax are better than ones I get in Toronto because otherwise its such as meh beer.
Alexander Keith’s is the best. Bodega downstairs had it for a few months. Can’t find it outside of specialty stores in NYC now.
How does someone have Stanton at 27 right now? First few weeks of the season, yeah, for sure. He wasn’t hitting at all. He has been mashing the past couple of weeks though and that 27 skews the rankings hard.
He also has the likes of Choo, Cuddyer, N. Cruz, Joyce, BJ Upton, Melky Cabrera, etc. ahead of him. Also in his rankings are Werth at 32, Kendrick at 62, Pagan at 38 while C. Young is 51, Trumbo at 33, etc.
These all just seem ridiculous to me. I understand differing opinions, but some of these just seem plain bad.
haha I love it. Stanton below Cuddyer, in between Choo and Markakis
As a Choo owner, I’d love to get Stanton. He’s shown in a few swings more than Choo’s shown all year. And, considering the limited power-upside of Choo, if just a few sb’s are shaved off of his year-end totals because of his hamstring issues – then, the gap between the Stanton and Choo becomes pretty sizeable.
Beltran is in Pujols-form. #34 seems, well, low.
A-Jax is too low. LoMo way too high.
Ignite, ignite, ignite, ignite…
Josh Hamilton should be #1 maybe #2
Just curious, who does Jeff Zimmerman have ranked #3 on his list?
Part of the Ellsbury fix. Fixed that now.
No love for Reddick? His numbers are strong so far, Kipnis-like.
Not sustainable?
Reddick was the one guy whose ranking stood out to me as well. Batting 3rd in the A’s lineup he should provide decent numbers across the board.
Fail on the Reddick ranking, simple as that.
The ranking of Reddick is an embarrassment.
And what about LaHair? He’s OF eligible in most leagues…
Even with Gardner’s setback, the guy is ranked way too high. And J-Hey getting no love?
WTF BROSEPH SWISHER IZ TOO LOW HE KILLZ IT HAZ LIKE 29 HOMERS AND I HAVE HIM ON MY TEEM BLERG GLERG
Lol, it never ceases to amaze me the vitriol waged toward FREE-content websites as reward to the gracious authors for publishing their thoughtful analyses and opinions.
In seriousness, I’m curious what y’all make of Allen Craig. He has raked every opportunity he’s had in the majors and looks really solid. He’s one of the hardest players in the league for me to value right now. Any reflections on him?
Interesting to note that Pagan cracks top 50. Is his switch-hitting ability and track record what makes him higher than De Aza?
Jayson Werth. You’ll find him somewhere between 32 and 110. Start looking.
it seems odd that beltran is sandwiched between zobrist and markakis. not only do i think he’s much better than either, i find it hard to believe that there is no outfielder ranked between beltran and markakis. seems like the talent gap between the two is wide enough to fit in another outfielder or four.
of course, it’s easier to say this after beltran goes 4/5 with another two bombs tonight (so far). and maybe someone in the group was just applying a heavy injury discount, though perhaps unfairly after last season in St. Louis. Still, would you really advise a beltran owner to trade for victorino, as the rankings suggest you should? i own victorino, and i would be thrilled to trade him for a rejuvenated beltran on the most powerful NL offense.
2009-2011
Zobrist – 267 runs, 436 hits, 102 2B, 15 3B, 57 HR, 257 RBI, 60 SB, 260 BB, 339 K, .267 BA
Markakis – 245 runs, 557 hits, 121 2B, 6 3B, 45 HR, 234 RBI, 25 SB, 191 BB, 266 K, .291 BA
The gap between them really isn’t that big. Especially when you consider 2009 was Zobrist’s best year when Markakis’ was probably 2008.
I think Bart was talking about the gap he perceives between Beltran and Markakis. And I would also be curious where LaHair would fit in these rankings, as he is RF-eligible in many leagues.
Big talent gap, yes, but one will play all season, and one will likely get hurt.
Well Markakis managed 160 games to Beltran’s 142 last season. But in that time Markakis put up a bWAR of 2.5, whereas Beltran had a bWAR of 3.5 despite more than a hundred fewer plate appearances.
Sometimes it still pays to have the more talented guy who gets injured more, especially if you have a capable deputy who can do more than nothing during any enforced absences.
Nice Josh Hamilton made it up to #7!
I guess 3.1 WAR in 35 games and a 1.338 OPS will make you move up 2 spots in the rankings!!!!!!!!
Because Josh Hamilton -never- gets hurt!
So now we rank guys lower because we think they are going to get hurt?
Um, why wouldn’t you? If Hamilton gets hurt tomorrow, and you have to replace him with a waiver wire OF, then how useful is he?
Yes, a guy who has a history of getting injured should be ranked lower than a guy who doesn’t.
Sorry that’s just dumb.
Let’s move Holliday down the list because another bug might fly in his ear.
How about moving CarGo down a few spots since he seems to crash into the wall at some point in the season.
If you KNOW Hamilton is going to get hurt, what is the injury going to be and when is it going to happen?
No it isn’t. If you don’t take injury possibility into account in your rankings, then your rankings are garbage. Certain players have a proven track record of subcumbing to injuries, for whatever reason.
Health is an age-related skill from most of the research I’ve seen. We run projections here to produce these rankings, and they include past playing time. Josh Hamilton has only once played more than 140 games, so it’s pretty safe to include some missed time.
The best way to use these rankings is to treat them as the sober-ist guy in the room, the spoil sport, the hater. If you have your own legitimate reasons for thinking Hamilton is in the middle of a power breakout, and his healthiest season, why get too worked up over the ranking. But if you’re just getting excited about his current run, then these rankings can remind you of where the career-level Josh Hamilton would place in the rankings.
There are always breakout seasons. There are also crazy months. I think there are fewer of the former than the latter.
That’s all fine and good, I get what you’re saying but couldn’t the same be said about Justin Upton?
He has only played in an average of 143 games per season in his last 3 seasons. Is that factored into your rankings already?
Awful rankings with no use to anyone. Lahair is OF eligible in yahoo and espn so maybe include him?, most the comments have pointed out the errors. just so many wrong things to even begin getting into…that .095 Iso on Brantley clearly lays him right next to Luke Scott this year, with Scott projected to be middle of rays order all year. Hamilton below Upton?! poor Hamilton maybe he needs another 5 hr in 6 ab stretch to crack the top 5…who knows, can i have what you all are smokin?
Because Josh Hamilton never gets hurt!
Seriously, trade me Upton for him and I’ll take it.
I don’t have Upton but would you accept Granderson?
How about a Big Mac-Cutchen?
Depending on team needs (the one league I have Hamilton, I would prefer Granderson, as I’m set in HRs but need SBs), yes. In the league I have Granderson, I’d prefer Hamilton ;-)
Hamilton’s ranking is solid.
Carlos Beltran is a top five outfielder and makes the flight of pujols to the west coast comical.
How the heck can Beltran be ranked 25th? He’s out performing almost everyone ahead of him with the exception of Hamilton.
And upton, cargo, and granderson never get hurt? Batista has had two good seasons ever… Hamilton will produce what these guys do even if he only plays in 120 games. He’s out to prove something and playing for a contract.
De Aza at 49????? So ridiculous
Desmond Jennings is a 25yr old who posted an .806ops over 992pa in AAA, and a .774ops over 437pa in MLB. not exactly numbers that scream elite offense going forward. is his 40sb potential really enough to earn him an elite ranking here by itself?
Jayson Werth is still ranked around 40 by two guys, despite the fact that he may return in September, at best? As far as I can tell, two of your “analysts” are just going by preseason or mid-April rankings.
These ratings would improve considerably if Jeff Z’s choices were omitted. Stanton over Hamilton? Also has Gardner and Crawford ranked ridiculously high.
It’s so awesome that fangraphs has so many readers that are smarter than the writers. Please send links to your own work so we can criticize you ;-)
I can’t speak for everyone, but my criticism of the low Beltran ranking was in no way meant to imply that I’m “smarter” than these guys. I’ve read many an informative, thoughtful article on this site, and I certainly appreciate all the time the writers put in, as this is still a free service. But I’m not sure the writers need you to defend every one of their rankings as sacrosanct. When did disagreement and reasoned discussion in the comments become not ok? I must confess, I don’t write fantasy baseball articles, so I have no work to link to. If being a fantasy baseball writer is a prerequisite to being allowed to comment, however, then these discussions probably wouldn’t happen. And the mere fact that some or many of the commenters don’t write fantasy baseball articles doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t have something valuable to add to the discussion.
I think I’m missing a lot of that ‘reasoned discussion’.
“Hamilton is underranked zOMG you idiots!” totally ignores injury risk, which is a -huge- component of fantasy baseball and overrates current results over future expectations (want to stop Hamilton? stop throwing him strikes!).
I’d have Beltran higher than he currently is, but I wouldn’t have him in the top 5 for the same reason.
Why is Holliday at #10 when I feel like I’m getting the exact same stuff from Willingham this year?
Well in the particular cases you cite, one should put up a good batting average and add some steals the rest of the way and one won’t.
I can understand how someone like JD Martinez is ranked where he is if you just look at his counting stats. Are you also taking into consideration current batting trends? The guy has laid so many eggs recently that he is now being benched on a regular basis. To be honest, I would not be surprised if he is sent down to the minors by the end of June. Lets swap Martinez’s and Reddick’s rankings and be done with it.
Was Josh Reddick really ranked 90th behind such mixed league stalwarts as Brandon Belt, Chris Heisey & David DeJesus (to namecheck but a few)? There’s plenty more which defy reason, but many of the more egregious ones have been touched on already.