I am getting ready to take part in my first weekly-lineup fantasy baseball league. I’ve done this for fantasy football (which I suppose goes without saying) and for fantasy basketball (back in high school when the “find the guy playing five games this week” strategy seemed novel), but never for baseball.
As I try to build a team, I am realizing that I need to completely shift the way I value opportunity.
In ottoneu leagues, I have long pushed you to go out and grab platoon guys – either guys who actually platoon for their real teams or guys whose production is much stronger against righties than lefties (or vice versa). Even players with strong home-road splits can be useful. With a 40-man roster, you can use these players when the match-up dictates and ride with another guy when your starter has to hit the bench.
But in weekly leagues – well that is another story. What is going to follow is not exactly a detailed analysis of who to play and when, but more of a look at what you need to consider and what I am trying to wrap my head around.
Let’s assume, for the moment, that we are talking about an ottoneu Points league scoring system, and use four players as an example. Player A will play daily (162 games) and posts 5 points per game. Player B only faces righties (120 games) and posts 6 points per game. If he ever faced a lefty (he wouldn’t) he would be worth 3 points per game. Player C plays daily (also 162 games) but is going to give you 5.5 points per game against righties and 2 points per game against lefties (120-42 split). Player D is replacement level – he posts 4.5 points per game every single day.
Now let’s make a quick table of the points you would accrue over the year, assuming you can acquire any of A, B, or C and add D as a backup.
|Daily Lineups||Weekly Lineups|
The results are fascinating to me. In a daily format, like ottoneu, player B is the guy to go after. You can use him whenever he plays, use a replacement level backup when he doesn’t, and put up more than 900 points over the season – 60 more than any of the other options. The replacement level player is the least valuable, and player A – solid across the board but no strong platoon side – is second least valuable.
But when you shift to a weekly format, suddenly your boring-but-steady Player A becomes your go-to and Player B, despite putting up the most value when he plays, is the least valuable option – worse than the replacement level guy – simply because he doesn’t play enough. Player C is, at least by our stats, a worse player than B. Given the choice, you would play B over C no matter what. But the fact that C gets to go out there and play horribly against lefties makes him a more valuable piece in weekly leagues.
This is a bit of an over-simplification. Some weeks, B would have a week against almost all lefties and you might bench him that week. But in general, every 6-7 game week will include a few matchups against RHP and a couple against LHP, and you are going to troy B (or C) out in your lineup, and suffer the consequences when they have to go against their split.
In addition, even bad players will create value more often than not in points leagues – Player C in a 5×5 league might bring down your rates more than he helps your counting stats by playing against lefties, potentially making B more valuable than C – although both might still be worse than replacement level.
This has been top of mind for me as I try to figure out what to do with Kelly Johnson. I am a big fan of KJ, and I love the idea of seeing him hit in Yankee Stadium, but the reality is his role is unclear. Right now he is their only 2B, but the Yanks do not seem to be willing to accept that, and if Johnson finds himself in a super-utility role, he quickly moves into player B camp – a guy who I think will put up solid fantasy stats when he plays, but will not play everyday.
Player B’s are great for daily leagues, but if you are dealing with weekly lineups they take up a roster spot and – far too often – don’t provide value.
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