Webb, Hughes, Santana, Broxton: DL Pitchers

Brandon Webb (shoulder): Brandon made his 4th AA rehab start of the season last Friday and it wasn’t good:

2/3 an inning, 4 ER, 4 hits, 1 K, 1 BB.

The rest of his AA starts haven’t been much better.

4 games, 9.75 ERA, 6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 over 12 innings.

I still think there some possible value left in Brandon and he may be worth keeping in a DL spot for a while longer. First, his ERA is bloated from a 0.444 BABIP and 58% LOB%. Currently his FIP is at 4.75, while not great, it is half of his ERA. Second, his fastball speed has been between 85 to 87 MPH in his starts so far. This value may seem low, but his average speed was around 88 MPH during his better MLB seasons. While the speed is down a bit, it is not that far off his previous values.

There is no reason to totally give on him over 12 innings, but I would be keeping track of his progress and see if he can begin to put it together.

Phil Hughes (shoulder): Phil’s ownership rate has crept up as he is getting closer to coming off the DL. In his first rehab start his fastball speed topped out at 95MPH. In his second start, it was a little slower topping out at 93 MPH and was in the range of 91 to 93 MPH. Even though he threw a little slower the second time out, his fastball speed is up ~3 MPH from his starts earlier this season. His fastball seems effective since he has gotten 10 minor leaguers to strike out in 7.2 IP.

He should be continue to be held in a DL spot and his minor league outings monitored.

Johan Santana (shoulder): It is looking more and more likely that Johan will pitch just a few starts, if at all, in 2011. His return time line has been moved back and with the Mets out of contention, there is no real reason to rush him back.

Bartolo Colon (hamstring): Tonight (Monday), Bartolo will pitch a simulated game to see how healed his hamstring is right now. After the outing, the Yankees will then have a better idea of a return timeline.

Jonathan Broxton (shoulder): Jonathan was supposed to join the Dodgers soon, but he felt stiffness in his shoulder on Saturday. It looks like his return will be put on hold. He was supposed to return to the Dodger’s closer role, but not for now.

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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

7 Responses to “Webb, Hughes, Santana, Broxton: DL Pitchers”

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  1. Andy Martino says:

    It is looking more and more likely that Johan will pitch just a few starts, if at all, in 2011. His return time line has been moved back and with the” Mets out of contention”, there is no real reason to rush him back.

    Clearly, you haven’t seen the wildcard scorecard, get your facts right man

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    • sirvlciv says:

      Baseball Prospectus gives the Mets a 2.9% chance of making the playoffs. I think that’s generous.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I just don’t see the Mets catching Atlanta, not alone the 5 other teams between the Mets and the playoffs.

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    • vivalajeter says:

      Yeah, I thought that was weird too, Andy. What are they, 4-5 games back of the wild card? They’re certainly not favorites, nor are they probables, but they’re not ‘out of contention’.

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      • Evan_S says:

        Yeah, I don’t know what the cutoff is, but I guess the Cards are out of contention as well, being only a game and a half up on the Mets. So it’s down to Arizona and Atlanta for the wildcard. With only 83 games of baseball left to play (that’s almost half!), I think the playoff picture is pretty clear.

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  2. Random Guy says:

    I cut bait on Webb a couple weeks ago. I drafted him as one of those late “lottery ticket” picks, but real lottery tickets have high potential payoffs. Webb might make it back, but his upside seems limited at this point. (Obviously I would have kept him if I had nothing else to do with my DL spot, but I didn’t, and it was a relatively easy decision to let him go under the circumstances.)

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  3. magguu says:

    What’s the rotation for NYY when Colon and Hughes get back?

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