Week 10 Trade Possibilities

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Carlos Lee – In his first 44 games, Lee was absolutelIn his first 44 games, Lee was absolutely dreadful. He was hitting for neither AVG (.192) nor power (5 HR in 167 ABs). But in the last two weeks, Lee has broke out of his slump in a big way and is batting .340 with 12 RBIs in 13 games. ZiPS (R) sees a .280 AVG with 15 HR and 62 RBIs the rest of the way and that might be selling him short. There is still a lot of room for growth with his BABIP (.227) and even with the awful start, when he did not hit a HR in April, his HR/FB rate is at 9.2 percent.

Ted Lilly – He got off to a late start to the season and then got knocked around in both his second and third outings of the year. But in his last six starts, Lilly has been as good as ever, even though his 0-3 mark in that frame does not show it. Lilly has recorded a Quality Start in each of those past six outings and has a 2.49 ERA over 43.1 IP. With a 4.62 xFIP, Lilly’s current owner may be in a mood to sell. Most of that number comes about because of a decrease in Ks and an increase in BB. But Lilly has picked up the pace with his strikeouts and in his last outing he did not walk a batter in 8 IP.

Clayton Richard – It is easy to see a Padres pitcher with a low ERA and an xFIP one and a quarter runs higher and make the conclusion that he is succeeding thanks to Petco Park. But Richard has pitched just as well on the road so far this season and his ERA was consistent in both April (3.00) and May (3.00). Richard has shaved nearly a full walk off his BB/9 from a year ago while his K/9 has remained steady. Some will point to his 81.0 LOB% as the main reason for his success. But Richard gets grounders, has a low LD% (16.7) and his O-Swing% is up to 28.5 percent. And he helps himself by having one of the toughest pickoff moves in the game.

SELL

Adam Dunn – One of the three true outcome kings, Dunn is walking less and hitting fewer HR this year. But the most surprising thing is his .280 AVG, which would easily be a career high. Of course, that comes with a .362 BABIP, which eclipses last year’s personal-best .324 mark. The additional base hits have Dunn just as valuable as ever with a .396 wOBA. But his fantasy value will fall when the AVG drops and unlike past years, Dunn will not prop it up with 40-HR power.

Derek Lowe – Great run support, especially early in the year, has helped Lowe to 8 W so far this season. But the rest of his fantasy numbers are underwhelming. His ERA is 5.04, his WHIP of 1.45 is just barely better than last year’s disappointing number and his K/9 of 5.28 is below-average. Lowe did real off wins in three straight outings before getting roughed up in his last start. His FIP and xFIP are three quarters of a run better than his ERA. See if that or his win total or his reputation can get someone to bite on him and take him off your hands. The slider which was such an effective pitch for Lowe while he was with the Dodgers is now a below-average offering.

Jon Rauch – After getting quality fantasy numbers from Rauch for two months, the time has come to try and sell high on Rauch and his 15 Saves. The 6-11 Rauch has done an admirable job filling in for Joe Nathan. But his WHIP is nothing special, he no longer is a big strikeout pitcher and his ERA is being propped up by a 5.9 HR/FB rate. Rauch has yet to give up a HR in 13 road innings and has allowed just 2 HR at home despite a 63.6 FB% in Target Field.

HUNCH

Troy Glaus – In the seven seasons prior to 2010, Glaus played in 115 games or fewer four times, including last year when he appeared in just 14 games and had only 29 ABs. But when healthy, Glaus has delivered consistent numbers, as good or better than the .377 OBP and .480 SLG he holds currently. Playing time is the big concern with Glaus, but he has already exceeded the amount of action he saw in two of his four injured seasons. I like Glaus’ chances to stay healthy and appear in 140 or more games this season and top his ZiPS (U) line of .271-22-92-64-1.




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18 Responses to “Week 10 Trade Possibilities”

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  1. Bill says:

    All well and good, but am I trading Ubaldo for David Wright? That’s the real question. I have a reasonably strong pitching staff (Caprenter, Hanson, Oswalt, Shields, Pelfry, Latos) and McGehee and Rolen at 3B.

    Much obliged.

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    • Jason B says:

      Can you not fill another need? Sounds like you’ve got 3B well stocked already, unless you’re shifting McGehee to 2B. Can you not better fill a position of true weakness?

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  2. Scott K. says:

    Latos or Richard going forth?

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  3. Jason B says:

    If you can find someone impressed by Derek Lowe’s gaudy win totals by all means…sell like the Duke brothers as frozen concentrated orange juice futures plummeted.

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  4. DonCoburleone says:

    “But his fantasy value will fall when the AVG drops and unlike past years, Dunn will not prop it up with 40-HR power.”

    And how do you know this exactly? I agree his average will drop, but how do you know his power has suddenly disappeared? Guy goes from 40HR’s every year to 38 last year and now he’s finished? You wanna talk about disappearing HR totals over the years, look no further than your #1 “trade for” candidate Carlos Lee.

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  5. SF 55 for life says:

    alright need some advice here. who is the best pick up? brett myers, ben sheets, edwin jackson, or gavin floyd? im leaning towards jackson right now.

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    • DonCoburleone says:

      I like Jackson but that ballpark in Arizona is just death to pitchers. Ben Sheets has given up way too many HR’s this year but most of his periphery stats look good. Floyd has been maddeningly inconsistent, but the guy is a known 2nd half pitcher. Myers won’t get wins, but everything else about him has been better than the other 3 so far this year… Its close but for me its between Myers and Floyd and if I had to choose I’d probably go Floyd.

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      • I wouldn’t consider Brett Myers in a million years. Fantasy baseball should be fun, and it’s not fun rooting for scumbags.

        As far as your question goes, is your league so deep that you have to marry one of them? Do you really need the extra starter? I’d spot-start those kind of guys if the matchup is favorable but otherwise I’d use that slot for relief help until a better option presents itself.

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  6. LuckyStrikes says:

    I think that guy Strasburg looked kinda like a “buy” last night…

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  7. ndbrian says:

    Advice. In first place in a 10 team AL-only league with standard 5 pitching categories (WHIP, ERA, W, S, Ks)

    Currently have:

    Starters: Shields, Burnett, Lewis, Hochevar (and now Buerhle on the bench..though I should’ve held on to Masterson one more week)

    Releivers: Rivera, Rauch.

    Was offered Romero for Rauch. Take it? Stay as is? Go out and drop Buerhle for Masterson again (I know his peripherals are great, but he can’t get lefties out to save his life..other than tonight) All advice welcome.

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    • If you did that, you’d be left with only one closer. Are you punting? I don’t believe in punting categories but if you’re going to, you may as well shop Rivera and see if you can’t do better than Romero.

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  8. I’ve been trying to trade Rausch since I picked him up and he was named closer the next day. Unfortunately no one trades for closers in that league until the deadline.

    Little late to buy on Lilly. He’s done been back for a minute now!

    Who’s buying Lowe? I could have gotten him off of waivers last month and I passed. My pitching sucks mind you.

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  9. SBG says:

    Neck Tat (Rauch) is tall.

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  10. batpig says:

    Hey, Dunn has now homered in three straight games! Thanks for the reverse jinx, he is on my fantasy team in a very competitive keeper league.

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    • Brian Joura says:

      I’ve got him in an NL-only league so I’m definitely enjoying it, too!

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    • batpig says:

      Hey, Dunn just hit ANOTHER homer today! that’s 6 HR’s in 9 games … thanks again for the reverse jinx! :-)

      BTW, (R)Zips has him projected at 36 HR coming into today…. so what was that again about his 40 HR power disappearing?

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