Week 10 Trade Possibilities

Hopefully you were able to pick up Gavin Floyd and trade Mark DeRosa last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Ian Stewart – Last year Stewart had a .364 BABIP in the majors. This year he checks in with a .244 mark in the category, so there is a lot of room for growth in his low average. Obviously, he cannot keep up his insane power numbers, either the .286 ISO or the 21.6 percent HR/FB. But Stewart has claimed a full-time job, has cut down some on his strikeouts from last year and either has or is on the doorstep to eligibility at both 2B and 3B depending on your league format. And if you think he is simply a Coors Field product, Stewart is batting just .120 with only four of his 11 HR in his home park.

Scott Baker – Yes, the home runs are absolutely killing him. Hopefully, his 2.26 HR/9 rate will fall significantly. But even with that HR rate, his FIP is lower than his ERA and the 64.2 percent strand rate shows he has had some bad luck, too. And his WHIP and K numbers are already solid.

Laynce Nix – In the early part of the decade, Nix was one of the top prospects in baseball. John Sickels called him “a potential Seven Skill player” following the 2002 season and Baseball America ranked him on their Top 100 Prospect List (85) following the 2003 campaign. And then the injuries started piling up. Now Nix is finally healthy, getting playing time and producing. The AVG is as high as it is going to get but anyone looking for a cheap source of power should invest here. The updated ZiPS projection shows him finishing with 21 HR in 362 AB and he is likely to get more playing time than that.

Mike MacDougal – The one-time Kansas City closer is now the closer in Washington. There is no guarantee as to how long he will have the job, but Joel Hanrahan has already lost the position twice. Owned in fewer than two percent of ESPN leagues, MacDougal could be an easy source of saves.

Trade

Michael Young – It is time to look to sell high on Young. He has great stats, name recognition and multiple position eligibility, so there should be no problem finding a taker. He also has a .361 BABIP and a career-best .200 ISO, thanks in large part to a HR/FB mark of 14.3 percent, also a career-best and virtually double the mark he posted in 2008.

Erik Bedard – Another sell-high candidate, Bedard has pitched great this season. But his FIP is a run higher than his ERA and his 83.6 percent strand rate is the seventh-highest mark in the majors. Like Young, Bedard should still be a valuable fantasy player even if/when regression hits. Trading them now is just trying to maximize their value and not any indictment of their skills.

Mike Lowell – A hot start by Lowell, combined with an injury to Jed Lowrie and the decline of David Ortiz, has caused the 35-year-old third baseman to play 55 of the first 57 games for the Red Sox. In his first 30 games, Lowell batted .314 with six HR in 117 AB. Since then he is batting .275 with three HR in 102 AB. That could easily be random fluctuation. But combined with the collapse of his walk rate, a career-low 3.9 percent, following back-to-back years of 8.3 percent, it may be a more ominous sign.

Josh Outman – The production of the A’s young pitching staff has been a wonderful story the past few weeks. Unfortunately, Outman’s peripherals do not match his 4-0 record nor his 3.17 ERA. His FIP checks in at 4.20 and as you might guess, his BABIP is .246 and his strand rate is 74.8 percent.

Derrek Lee – A hot streak the last three weeks, in which Lee hit .364, has his AVG for the season up to .262 after it was beneath the Mendoza Line in mid-May. But Lee is still hitting for even less power than he did the past two seasons. ZiPS now forecasts him to finish the year with 17 HR. And the SB which helped prop up his value last year are missing, too. Lee currently has zero steals.




Print This Post



12 Responses to “Week 10 Trade Possibilities”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Dan says:

    I’ve dropped and acquired Stewart 3x this year. I always guess wrong on his good weeks. I’m going to stick with him at 2B for the next few weeks and pray he meets his ZIPs projections.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Schmitty says:

    I have no problem with selling high on Michael Young. What I am having trouble with is identifying a suitable replacement SS that I am not also buying high on. Aside from Hanley most of the top tier guys look to have a downward trend ROS in their stats right? Recommendations on a target?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Mike N. says:

      I’d say Stephen Drew is the best buy-low SS target out there right now. You can probably flip Young for Drew and get a nice upgrade elsewhere in the deal. You could also package Young with someone for J-Roll or sub Drew out for Alexei Ramirez.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • R M says:

      JJ Hardy is a great buy low candidate in my mind right now. He is very streaky, and usually he finds away to even out long slumps like this by going on big hot streaks. Maybe he has one in store for the second half…..

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Miller says:

    I was proposed Bedard and Antonio Bastardo for Dan Haren? I Have Haren. What do I do?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Eno Sarris says:

    Actually, Miller, that’s a tough one. Haren’s got a crazy first/second half split for his career, and Bedard may end up in a favorable situation for wins at least. Bastardo is looking good, too. I’d still say no, as Brian is right about the strand rate, and there are few parks as pitching-favorable as Seattle.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Chad says:

    I have an offer of Theriot for Bedard as I’ve been advertising that Bedard is available in exchange for SS help. I’m getting killed at SS in a deep league with Reyes out, there’s no one on the WW worth thinking about, and not too many teams have depth at SS since it is a 14 team league that includes MI position. Who do you see at that position as having similar value to Bedard. I always have a difficult time valuing hitters against pitchers.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. John Galt says:

    Don’t waste time evaluating hitters against pitchers or v.v. Evaluate your league and where you are in the standings.

    It’s impossible to say what SS would have similar value as Bedard TO YOU without knowing who’s on your team, where you rank in each category, and where your competition is in each category. If your rotation is Santana, Lincecum, Haren, and Sabathia, then Bedard will have less value TO YOU than he would to someone with a lousy rotation. My guess is your rotation’s not nearly that good.

    Unless Hits and Runs are tightly bunched in your league and you can make up a lot of ground there, a guy like Theriot’s not gonna be the answer. Look for the SS’s who will gain you more offensive points than you’d lose on the pitching side without Bedard. Hopefully, you can find one on a contending team with a lousy rotation that could make up ground if it had Bedard – that owner will value Bedard very highly.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Alex Roberts says:

    Brian,

    You mention Stewart’s 244 BABIP (232 now, actually) and ridiculously low Coors Field Avg as reasons why we’ll see marked improvement over the second half.

    One thing I noticed though is his LD %. It’s 12.5% this year vs. 25% last year – TWICE as high. It’s a factor in his lower BABIP for sure, as a higher LD rate correlates with a more sustainably higher BABIP.

    His FB rate – which induces a lower BABIP – is 50%, really high even for power hitters.

    I mention all this because with no AVG numbers available for Hit Ball Rates on players’ stat pages, it’s tough to see exactly where Stewart falls as far as those rates go.

    MORE importantly, it would be very helpful if you guys developed a metric called “expected BABIP”… that is, considering a player’s Hit Ball Rates, what would we expect his BABIP to be? A guy like Robbie Cano, cause of his LD rate could be expected to have a higher and more sustainable BABIP than 09 Stewart, where as Stewart could be expected to have a lower BABIP (though not as low as it is now).

    The standard # for judging BABIP against is 300. But we consistently see the best hitters post BABIPS much higher than that. So what are the appropriate baseline BABIPS for players with different types of Hit Ball Rates.

    Perhaps dividing Hit Ball Rates into categories like these could help, placing players into the categories in which they most closely belong and then determining the expected BABIP for hit ball rates of those configurations: High LD, MED GB, LOW FB. Med LD, High GB, Low FB, etc etc etc…

    Thoughts?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Brian Joura says:

    Alex -

    Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix developed a new model for BABIP that you might find interesting. You can read about it here:

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current ye@r *