Week 11 Trade Possibilities

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Nyjer Morgan – Owners drafted him for speed and Morgan has been successful on just 14 of 24 SB attempts. Also, he was hitting so poorly as the Nationals’ leadoff man that he was dropped lower in the order. But Morgan has played well the last two weeks while everyone is dumping on him. In his last 14 games (13 starts), Morgan is batting .286 with 9 R and 5 SB in 7 attempts. He is a three-category performer who struggled while suffering through a poor BABIP stretch. ZiPS (U) shows him with 35 SB and that seems to be on the low side of what he should be expected to do given his speed and recent success ratio.

Francisco Rodriguez – Ask any Mets fan or Rodriguez owner if they feel comfortable when he comes on to nail down the save. Tuesday he allowed a 2-run HR in the ninth inning but held on for the save, prompting Metsdradamus to label it an “8” on the Coronary Meter. But if you do not watch the games and just view the results in the box scores, you will see that Rodriguez’ results are more than satisfactory. In the last 30 games, he is tied with Jonathan Broxton for most Saves in the majors with 9. In that time span he has a nice 12.09 K/9 ratio. And even though hitters are enjoying a .393 BABIP against Rodriguez, he has a very acceptable 2.97 ERA in that stretch. The results can be even better in the future if his BABIP regresses to normal levels.

James Shields – He has dropped three straight decisions and now carries his highest ERA (4.55) since his rookie season in 2006. But Shields is on pace to record his highest K/9 (8.68) of his career and his xFIP of 3.39 is a personal best. The Rays righty is scuffling right now due to a 50 percent strand rate, the lowest of any qualified pitcher in the last 30 days. Once he improves with runners on base, Shields will be a pitcher to help in all four categories thanks to Tampa Bay’s offense and the chance for big Win totals.

SELL

Matt Cain – Everyone thought Cain was lucky last year but he is topping even that pace with his current hot streak. In 2009, Cain had an ERA 1.33 lower than his xFIP. This year it is 2.49 lower thanks to a 94.8 LOB% in his last six starts. Now, Cain’s ERA has been better than his xFIP each season of his career, so it is certainly not all due to luck. Still, now is a good time to look to sell high on a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA in his last four starts.

Aubrey Huff – After a poor start to the season, Huff has been on an extended hot streak. In his last 41 games he is batting .333 with 8 HR and 26 RBIs. That has caused his ownership in CBS Sports leagues to rise from 40 to 75 percent. But it is questionable if Huff can maintain this pace going forward and there are also some playing time concerns going forward. With Buster Posey and Pat Burrell both making the case for consistent at-bats, Huff may find it hard to match last year’s 536 ABs.

Colby Rasmus – Last year LHP devoured Rasmus as they limited him to a .474 OPS in 115 PA. But this year Rasmus has a .951 OPS versus southpaws in 44 PA and he is faring even better against RHP. In his last 30 games, Rasmus has been hitting everything in sight, as he has a .444 BABIP and a 25.0 HR/FB rate. Neither the overall success nor the results versus LHP are likely to keep up their current pace, making Rasmus a sell-high candidate. ZiPS (R) has him for a .269 AVG and 11 HR, and it is hard to believe his trade value is not higher than that.

HUNCH

Mark Teixeira – A notorious slow starter, Teixeira got off to his usual slow start and then turned things around in May. But ZiPS was not all that thrilled with Teixeira to start the year and the updated version shows reduced totals in AVG, HR and RBIs. I am going to side with history and predict that Teixeira exceeds his ZiPS (U) totals of .252-27-104.




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39 Responses to “Week 11 Trade Possibilities”

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  1. Sean says:

    Selling Rasmus would be a fail. He is a future and present stud. He struggled last year because he was sick, so basically those projections mean nothing.

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    • Was he really? What kind of illness? I was thinking about selling high on him but now that he’s hitting LHP, he really seems to have come into his own as an all-star player.

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      • Landon says:

        He got a hiatal hernia midway through the season and lost about 25 lbs. He said he felt exhausted constantly and was very weak; it shows in the numbers. He had an .807 OPS in the first half and a .552 in the second half; the projections are very skewed because of this.

        Right now Colby has an unsustainably high BABIP, but his high walk rate and ISO are good signs for his future value. Look for less batting average in the future, but I think the power is real. He will continue to be a valuable OF.

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    • swyck says:

      “ZiPS (R) has him for a .269 AVG and 11 HR.”

      Since he already has 13 HR not even at mid-season I guess Zips is ALREADY wrong about him.

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  2. DonCoburleone says:

    I’m trying to get James Shields right now for Corey Hart, having a hard time convincing the other person… Would including Ricky Nolasco to get Shields be something you would do? (so i’d be giving up Hart/Nolasco for Shields).

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    • Jason B says:

      Holy hell that’s a lot to give up for Shields, my friend.

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      • DonCoburleone says:

        Really? Nolasco is having the worst season of his career (and the periphery numbers support that and show no signs of a rebound). I’m just considering him a throw in since I will drop his sorry ass if he has another blowup tomorrow. Corey Hart is the one I worry about giving up, but his HR/FB ratio is completely unsustainable and its not like he’s stealing 20 bases a year anymore. The guy’s value is 100% based on his Homers so far this year, and if (when) those dry up your left with what? Delmon Young? Jeff Francoeur? No thanks.

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      • Jason B says:

        Well, you’re dead right in that at some point, Nolasco’s promise/potential need to translate into actual on-field results for fantasy purposes – having a good xFIP or whatever might make you a stat geek’s wet dream, but it sure doesn’t help push you higher in the fantasy standings where you need wins, a tolerable ERA, and the like.

        I mean, sure Hart’s value plummets without the homers, but so does Adam Dunn’s/Ryan Howard’s/most everyone else with more muscle than David Eckstein (and he’s forgiven since he’s “scrappy”). I don’t think anyone expects him to continue pushing the league lead in HR’s, but even with some inevitable regression he’s still got some value.

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      • DonCoburleone says:

        Great point on Nolasco. Every saber minded geek out there was hawking Nolasco as a potential fantasy Ace (I bought into it). Some people were even saying that there was little to no drop off between him and Josh Johnson. But at some point the good ol’ fashion eye-ball test has to come into play doesn’t it? When I watch Nolasco, it becomes painfully obvious very quickly that he is not the same pitcher when pitching from the stretch. His pitches tend to stay up in the zone and since everything he throws is around the plate, hitters don’t have to worry about a ball hitting them or them swinging at a pitch in the other batters box… I’m not trying to come off as a scout or something, but I watch A TON (4-5 hours A DAY) of baseball and some guys just simply look (or don’t look) the part. Aaron Harang is another example of a guy like this. He’s overweight and has a strange hitch in his delivery that just causes me to cringe whenever I see him pitch. And yet, just about every week I read another article on Aaron Harang being a “buy low” candidate or “look at his K/BB ratio and his xFIP! LOOK AT IT!!!” Its like dude, look at HIM!

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      • DonCoburleone says:

        And I see your point about Home Runs and Adam Dunn/Ryan Howard, but those guys have proven in the past that they can hit 40+ Home Runs year in and year out. Corey Hart’s career high in HR’s is what, 24? And he’s already at 17? That to me gives Hart a much better chance of falling off a cliff in regards to HR production than an Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard…

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    • james says:

      dude, that is way too much to get Shields. I would wager that Nolasco equals Shields from here on out, unless he is hurt. Hart is the throw-in player in this deal but is too much to give up. Not that losing Hart is a big deal if you can pick up Delmon Young. In fact, you should swap Hart for Delmon Young now to upgrade your team.

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      • It really depends on how deep your league is, doesn’t it? In a typical yahoo/espn public league, I think you can find a comparable pitcher to Shields on the wire. You can even outperform him if you’re aggressive with spot-starting and play match-ups.

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  3. Tom B says:

    i always feel like the sell high window on cain never actually materializes(even though we get told to sell high on him every. single. year.).

    everyone knows he doesn’t strike guys out, and everyone knows he plays for the giants. owners should just be happy he’s playing well for them, because no one in a serious league is going to “buy” it.

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    • Gary says:

      Dude I so am right there with you. I’ve been trying to sell Cain for years. You just gotta hold on and get whatever you get out of him.

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      • DonCoburleone says:

        You guys are right on. Nobody will ever pay you fantasy “Ace” value for him in a trade, you just gotta hold onto him and hope he ends up having a lucky year in regards to ERA (2009-2010) instead of an unlucky one (2006-2008)…

        And this brings up another point in regards to fantasy trading. How come nobody ever recommends “Buying High” or “Selling Low”? Everyone was screaming trade Ubaldo trade Ubaldo about a month ago and all he’s done since then is THE SAME THING HE’S BEEN DOING ALL YEAR! And in the opposite direction, how many people were telling us to go “buy” Gordon Beckham back in early May? Where would we be if we all took that advice?

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      • Gina says:

        tht was actually saying buy ubaldo around the same time everyone was saying sell high because they figured so many sites were probably saying sell high. They said the same thing about McGehee.

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  4. Sweet Lou says:

    i have both Cain and Rasmus. moving them for Hanson/Shin-Soo Choo advisable?

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  5. JS says:

    Rasmus owner. Is moving him for Holliday crazy talk?

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  6. Reuben says:

    Would Rasmus be someone you would sell in a keeper league?

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  7. Dan says:

    Completely unrelated, but a knowledgeable crowd- I’m trying to swing a three team deal, my net (based on my own players and traded) will look like:
    McCann/Freddy Sanchez/Josh Hamilton for Kurt Suzuki/jose Reyes/Werth

    thoughts? I’m worried about Werth. I could see him outperforming Hamilton, I could see him falling well short.

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    • DonCoburleone says:

      Wow that’s a tough one… At first glance it seems like you’re downgrading at Catcher big time, but when you look at the stats they are really quite close in terms of fantasy value. Reyes is definately an upgrade over Freddy Sanchez. But your right, it comes down to Werth/Hamilton and that is a tough call. Werth is more durable and will steal more bases, but Hamilton just looks so freaking good right now. Its a tough call but I’d probably do it. If Werth can just match Hamilton for the rest of the season you’ll have a steal. Especially if Reyes can get back to 90% or so of what he was in 2007…

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    • Chris R says:

      That seems like a winning deal for you. Suzuki is putting up more typical McCann numbers than McCann is. I believe more in Werth than in Hamilton for the rest of the season. Reyes over Sanchez by a lot, obviously.

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  8. dave says:

    I feel Rasmus’s Zips projection is built on limited data. If you read the stories about his struggles last season, he really seems to have his head on straight with his father and LaRussa and what not. I think his success is sustainable, though maybe not at the current rate, definitely at a .860ish ops for the rest of the season.

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  9. Mikey says:

    Unfortunately I can not acquire Morgan, the owner is AWOL.
    What Morgan like player could I fetch with C.Hart?
    I’m falling behind in Avg/SB.

    Cheers.

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  10. andy says:

    Both Morgan and Tabata were recently waived in my league. Who should I pick up?

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    • Anthony says:

      I’d pick up Tabata, but Morgan will give you more SB’s.

      Their minor league numbers indicate they both will post a similar AVG/OBP. Tabata has more power upside. Morgan has more speed (though the guy gets caught ALL the time).

      Tabata has shown some more speed lately than earlier on in his career, but it won’t be Morgan speed.

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  11. james says:

    Rasmus is has better numbers than Holliday and trading the latter for the former is not crazy. Rasmus is still on his growth curve Holliday is declining. In a keeper league to me its a no brainer to want Rasmus, in a yearly I could see Holliday having more value.

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  12. slogue617 says:

    I was in first in all of the major pitching categories except saves (where I ranked last), so I traded Marcum for Rasmus about a month ago. I was kicking myself at first because my pitching imploded immediately after the deal (Lincecum/Kershaw/Liriano/Oswalt/Garza/Colby Lewis/CJ Wilson), but it’s looking okay now. I might try to trade Rasmus and one of the back end guys for a better outfielder. Thoughts?

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  13. sweetness says:

    Cain/Rasmus for Grienke/McCutchen too much or too little?

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  14. dinordi says:

    Just traded Cain today following his 0-3 loss to the Blue Jays. I landed Tommy Hanson. How did I make out?

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  15. J says:

    Mark Reynolds and Strassburg for Wainwright and Rasmus, who wins?

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  16. Wildcatbob says:

    In a keeper league where salaries matter… i have rasmus at 15 for next year… was offered hamilton for rasmus/parker… hamilton will cost 30 next year…

    Is it worth hamiltons boost in BA and OBP?

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  17. highrent says:

    Major league splits last year was decieving. check his minor league numbers he has never had hugely different splits in the minors.

    His OPS against LH is .826 to .860 for right handers. Its arguable that while he still may yt have a differential its not as pronounced as his initial season showed. Likely it came from a need for adjustment the sudden jump in quality from coming to the show, and injury. He’s worked on it and I think he’s showing that he can hit lefties and not be so much a liability. Although his K rate is still alarming he continues to show he is walk and power machine.

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