Week 13 Trade Possibilities

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Ian Kinsler – An ankle injury kept Kinsler out of the lineup early in the year. It is unclear if that injury has led to his decline in power. Kinsler has just 3 HR in 201 ABs after hitting 31 HR in 2009. He is suffering from hitting fewer FB and hitting fewer of those FB out of the park. But in his last eight games, Kinsler is batting .412 with 2 HR and 3 SB. It could be a small sample fluke or it could be evidence that the ankle is finally not bothering him anymore. I lean towards the latter and expect Kinsler to exceed the 10 HR (R) ZiPS projects for him.

Shane Victorino – Preseason projections had Victorino batting between .283 and .290, making his .249 AVG particularly annoying for his owners. A .227 BABIP in June has been especially troubling for Victorino. But the rest of his fantasy numbers are on pace or better than what was expected from him coming into the season. He is still a good source of SB and has displayed more HR power than anticipated. A comeback in AVG would make his fantasy season complete.

Barry Zito – After starting the season 6-1, Zito has cooled off considerably. In his last eight decisions he is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA. But Zito has 5 Quality Starts in that span and could easily have a few more wins to his credit. Overall his FIP (3.78) is right in line with his ERA (3.43). Zito’s xFIP is considerably higher, but he has posted a lower ERA than xFIP in the eight previous years, each season for which xFIP data is available. With a solid WHIP (1.23) and an acceptable K rate (6.26), Zito remains an above-average pitcher if he keeps his ERA at his current FIP levels.

SELL

Adrian Gonzalez – Heading into the final day of June, Gonzalez has a .363 AVG with 7 HR and 23 RBIs in the month. He will not maintain either the AVG or RBI pace going forward. Gonzalez is a great player, one of the top sluggers around. But if you have the depth to trade him, now is the time to move him at the height of his value.

Carl Pavano – Raise your hand if you thought Pavano would have 9 W and a 3.33 ERA at the end of June. Last Player Picked has him at $15, making him one of the top 20 pitchers in all of baseball. But his K rate collapsed in June. After posting a 6.32 K/9 the first month of the season, Pavano was down to a 3.83 mark this month. Only a .187 BABIP and an 84.5 LOB% has kept his numbers so strong. Because people remember the injury-prone Pavano of a few years ago, it may be hard to find much trade interest in him. But his owners owe it to themselves to find if anyone is willing to gamble on a top-20 pitcher.

Buster Posey – Trade recommendations are for redraft leagues. Posey is one of the top prospects in the game but in 2010 his name value far exceeds his production. So far he has shown a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone (31.4 O-Swing%) along with having significant trouble versus fastballs (-3.59 wFB/C). Posey has not hit for much power and has a nice AVG thanks to a .310 BABIP. That is at the upper limit of normal levels but catchers as a group tend to have lower BABIPs than other players. Look for Posey’s AVG to fall without having a lot of power to make up for the drop.

HUNCH

Clint Barmes – The injury to Troy Tulowitzki has given Barmes a new lease on life as he takes over as the starting shortstop for the Rockies. After struggling through BABIP nightmares in April (.222) and May (.234) Barmes has turned it around in June to get his mark up to .269 for the season. He’s not going to hit for much of an AVG but at least now it is high enough to be a major league regular. Since taking over at SS, Barmes is hitting .316 with 2 HR, 7 RBIs and 7 R in 11 games. The real question is if he can get back to the power numbers he showed in 2009. I like Barmes to exceed his (R) ZiPS total of 7 HR for the rest of the way.




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9 Responses to “Week 13 Trade Possibilities”

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  1. Jared says:

    Zito’s been performing average-ly so far and I think he might see more Line Drives in the future, as well as more of his fly balls wandering over the fence. While he’s not enjoying a BABIP significantly below his career average, he is certainly enjoying lower LD% and HR/FB.

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  2. - A little late on Posey. I’ve been shopping him since I got him three weeks ago via trade as a throw in to a larger deal – about when he went cold. Couldn’t get a bite for mediocre pitching even than – in a keeper league! He’s on my bench now. Can’t really drop him, as he might make an attractive keeper to a “Seller” as the deadline approaches…

    - Zito’s BABIP is sure to go up with Burrell and/or Huff roaming the outfield. Cust Kayin’

    - Kinsler always has a great month to six weeks as the temperature rises, only to hit the DL for the stretch. Let him hit for a bit, than SELL SELL SELL! Doing that lead me to a crown last season and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him follow the same script in ’10. “Staying healthy is a skill,” as a wise man once said, one Kinsler (and Cruz for that matter, who I’ve already parted with for good value) do not possess.

    - I won’t pay for saves or steals unless they’re elite, so I’m luke warm on Victorino. He’ll give you a little more pop than the usual speedy outfielder, but he’ll come at a much higher price due to name and the above average power he’s shown in the first half. If you believe the power is sustainable (and peripherals show it may well be) go for it, but I’ll pass on the cost of taking that chance.

    Speed is more plentiful this year and I’d rather fill a speed deficiency via waivers (Tabata, Bernadina – who’s been dynamite, Torres, etc.) unless I’m getting a master thief like Reyes or a Crawford.

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  3. Lionofsenate says:

    REL: Kinsler

    I don’t know how you can overlook his groin injury. Forget the ankle. Kinsler’s bat will not return to 2008 levels. Groin injuries, even when “healed” don’t ever return to full strength.

    I wouldn’t expect to ever see 2008 Kinsler again.

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  4. Matt says:

    “has a nice AVG thanks to a .310 BABIP. That is at the upper limit of normal levels”

    What??? The kid had a .349 BABIP last year and he’s been touted as being a solid hitter. Why shouldn’t he have a BABIP that’s on the high end of average?

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    • Brian Joura says:

      You can’t compare minor league BABIPs and major league ones.

      Look at this year’s catchers. Only two of the 10 qualified catchers have a BABIP over .300 and one of those has spent time at 1B. So either Posey is as good as Joe Mauer or else he’s going to see his BABIP drop into the range of the other catchers as he plays his games behind the plate with Molina gone.

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  5. Posey read this article before the game tonight…

    Perhaps a return to his natural position will up his comfort level and help him settle in? Remember numbers or no, as William Goldman wrote, “nobody knows anything.”

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  6. DonCoburleone says:

    I’m shopping Pavano right now in my 14 team roto league – doesn’t seem to be alot of interest.

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  7. Dave says:

    Don’t like Victorino going forward. He’s doing the same thing that Kinsler and Granderson did last year (that Kinsler seems to be correcting this year). he’s swinging for the fences – you can see it the spike in his FB%.

    Unless he changes his approach back to what worked for him in years past, he’s a lost cause this season – he’ll drop in sbs, avg, ops, runs for a touch more hrs.

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  8. airlifting says:

    posey killing it pretty much after this sell recommendation.

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