- FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy -

Week 24 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 24 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Greinke, Lilly, Danks, Willis, Detwiler, Hand

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Cueto, Peavy, Eveland, Wang.

Let’s take a look at John Danks. On May 29th, Danks allowed 9 ER in 4 IP to send his ERA to 5.25 and his record to 0-8. Since then he’s 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA. Over those last 13 games, Danks has 76 Ks and 17 BB in 81.2 IP.

For the season, Danks has a 3.77 xFIP, which is the lowest mark he’s ever recorded. His ERA is now down to 4.09, higher than what it has been recently, but essentially equal to his lifetime 3.98 mark. It’s been a tremendous in-season turnaround.

Danks pitched okay the first month of the season, with four Quality Starts in six games with 36 Ks in 39 IP. It was May when Danks really hit the skids. In five starts that month, he had a 6.89 ERA with 14 BB, 10 Ks and 6 HR in 31.1 IP. In the first two months of the season, Danks allowed 11 HR in 70.1 IP. He gave up 84 fly balls in that span and had a 13.10 HR/FB rate.

In his last 13 games, Danks has surrendered 6 HR in 81.2 IP. He’s allowed 85 fly balls in that span for a 7.06 HR/FB rate. For the season Danks now has a 10.1 HR/FB rate, almost exactly equal to his career mark of 10.0.

We also see that Danks had trouble with his cutter early in the year. In 2009, Danks’ cutter was 19.1 runs above average while in 2010 it was 10.8 runs above average. In the month of May, Danks’ cutter had a -2.8 run value. Starting in June, Danks has had a positive run value with his cutter each month of the season.

Danks has a home game against Detroit and a road game against Kansas City this week. He has an ERA two runs higher on the road this year, with 76 IP both at home and on the road. But Danks’ road xFIP is 3.40, compared to a 4.13 home xFIP.

The White Sox lefty was knocked around in his last two outings, including a road game in Detroit, which has prompted fantasy owners to own him in just 51.8 percent of ESPN leagues and to start him in just 47 percent of CBS Sports leagues.

This year Danks is 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA against the Tigers in three games and 16.2 IP. Against the Royals he’s 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two games and 13 IP. Combined, he has 34 Ks in 29.2 IP against these teams.