Here is the latest update to Week 7 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update: Lincecum, Scherzer, Pineda, Zambrano, Tomlin, Liriano, Davies.
Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Cain, Masterson, Duensing, Vargas, Coke, O’Sullivan and Coleman.
The new starters include guys you are either definitely going to start or guys that have already been covered recently. So, let’s take a look at Kyle Davies, who is owned in two percent of CBS Sports leagues.
As if that was not enough of an indication of what type of pitcher Davies is, Craig Brown at Royals Authority recently wrote an article in which he concluded: “Davies is the worst starting pitcher in the history of the game.”
With that as our backdrop, let’s point out something that Davies has done well this year. His strikeouts are slightly up and his walks are down a considerable amount, leading to a career-high 2.07 K/BB ratio. Davies always had good minor league strikeout numbers (620 Ks in 642 IP) but had trouble in the majors because his fastball has little life, despite its velocity.
Without overwhelming stuff, Davies is more hittable than an average major league starter. He has a lifetime .316 BABIP and this year that mark sits at .364 after 40.2 IP. He also has a below-average 63.1 LOB%. Those two reasons go a long way in explaining a 4.55 xFIP, which is below average for a SP in 2011, but hardly what we would expect from a contender for the worst pitcher ever.
Another interesting thing to consider is that Davies has a significant home/road split so far in 2011. He has a 4.58 ERA and a 2.40 K/BB ratio at home this year compared to a 9.00 ERA and a 1.89 K/BB ratio on the road.
This week Davies has home starts against Cleveland and St. Louis. He’s squared off twice against the Indians already this season, hurling a Quality Start when he faced them in Kansas City (6 IP, 2 ER 0 BB, 7 K) and then getting bombed (3.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 HR) when the venue was Progressive Field. The Indians are not the same team that batted around Davies the last time they saw him. In 13 games since their four-HR game versus the KC hurler, the Tribe is averaging four runs per game, down nearly a run from their overall season mark.
However, the Cardinals lead the National League with a 5.25 runs-per-game average.
By no means is this a recommendation to pick up Davies for his two starts this week. But hurlers with two home starts are always interesting and Davies has stronger peripherals than his overall ERA would indicate. Keep an eye on him this week and possibly keep him in mind as a potential streaming option in the future if he holds his own in Week 7.
Last week’s Sunday look was at Mike Pelfrey, who ended up pitching just once this past week and put up the following fantasy line:
W, 2 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, QS
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