Week Eight Trade Possibilities

Hopefully you were able to pick up Matt Holliday and trade Russell Branyan last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jermaine Dye – He is striking out more than he ever has and his AVG is a disappointing .270 so far. His fantasy value is being propped up by HR but he has a 25 percent HR/FB rate. These are reasons why his current owner might trade him. But Dye has just a .243 AVG at home, thanks to a .234 BABIP at U.S. Cellular. He’s batted over .300 at home two of the last three seasons and has never had an AVG that low in his previous four years in Chicago. Dye is also uncharacteristically struggling versus LHP, against whom he has just a .152 AVG. Lifetime he is a .284 hitter versus southpaws. Even with a regression in HR, the updated ZiPS projects him to hit 24 the rest of the season and finish with 36 HR, which exceeds all of the pre-season projections.

David Aardsma – Since Brandon Morrow blew back-to-back saves on May 13-14, Aardsma has three saves and Morrow has none. Additionally, Morrow has pitched multiple innings in the sixth and seventh in his last three outings. Walks have always been a major issue for Aardsma and this year is no different. But this is a guy who is at the very least in the running for saves and is available on the waiver wire in over half of ESPN leagues.

Aubrey Huff – The updated ZiPS forecast shows Huff finishing below last year’s output in every fantasy category. But Huff is also a notoriously slow starter. At this point last year, Huff was batting .240-6-24 and he finished .304-32-108. It’s almost impossible to predict the finish that Huff enjoyed last season, but since he’s starting from a higher baseline, he doesn’t have quite so far to go. Huff already has a nice .209 ISO and his BB/K numbers are better than a year ago. He currently has a .277 BABIP, 20 points below his lifetime mark and 42 points below what he hit last year.

Joe Saunders – There is not one advanced metric that suggests you should pick him up. But at some point we have to stop looking at what we think he should do and instead look at what he has done. Saunders has a lifetime .691 winning percentage with a sub-four ERA in 73 games. The updated ZiPS forecast is not pretty; it shows him going 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA from here on out. That’s slightly more pessimistic than the pre-season projections forecasted for him. If you can acquire him for the price of his expected ZiPS for the remainder of 2009, I like Saunders’ chances of beating that projection.

Coco Crisp – His .751 OPS is identical to what it was a year ago. But in 2009, Crisp is achieving that with a .250 BABIP compared to a .322 mark last season. He may not crack double-digits in HR this season, but it would not be a surprise to see him bat .300 with 20 SB the rest of the way.

Trade

Jason Bartlett – At some point fantasy owners will start to take Bartlett seriously. Currently, his .373-7-30-32-14 line makes him the third-best fantasy player overall according to CBS Sports. The key for Bartlett owners is to find the moment when other owners feel enough time has elapsed to make him a serious acquisition target. Some owners may never consider Bartlett a trade target. That’s okay. The updated ZiPS shows him compiling a .293-5-36-52-15 line from here on out. Yes, a huge decline from where he is now, but still a valuable fantasy SS that could help most clubs. Bartlett owners have already “won” with his production until now. If they can get equivalent value for Bartlett’s RoS ZiPS at a position of need, that should be a win-win deal for both sides.

Zach Duke – He should be an attractive target for clubs that need pitching with his 2.60 K/BB ratio and 3.56 FIP. But Duke has a .261 BABIP and a 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio. Linear Weights shows his fastball turning from an awful pitch the last three seasons to one that is neutral despite having no increase in velocity. His RoS ZiPS shows him with an ERA of 5.24 and a 5-10 record.

B.J. Upton – The time to get a good return on Upton has come and gone. Now we are left with trying to salvage something for the rest of the year. He is striking out at an alarming rate (31.5%) and hitting for no power (.097 ISO). RoS ZiPS sees him hitting .257 with 11 HR. It is possible his trade value still exceeds that meager production.

Johnny Cueto – Everyone expected Cueto to improve upon last year’s numbers, although not many predicted what he’s produced so far in 2009. But Cueto’s lofty numbers carry several warning signs. His 3.64 FIP is well above his 2.37 ERA. Cueto has benefited from an 83.1 percent strand rate and a .253 BABIP. His K/9 is down 1.2 from a season ago and his HR/9 is less than half of what it was in 2008.

Michael Bourn – A one-category performer (SB), Bourn has actually been a plus in three categories so far, adding runs and AVG to his ledger. But the .366 BABIP won’t last and you should actively shop him to someone looking to make up ground in SB.




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17 Responses to “Week Eight Trade Possibilities”

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  1. brian recca says:

    I have Upton but I can’t seem to pull the trigger on a trade.

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  2. Sam says:

    Jon Lester.. Now is a good time to buy low on him right?

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  3. Josh S. says:

    I can’t see B.J. Upton as a sell. His value can’t be any lower, and I can’t believe a guy with a career BABIP of .350 who’s BABIP currently stands at .270 isn’t in line for a spike in his numbers. Sure, the K-rate is alarming, very in fact, but it’s also down slightly in May from what it was in March (about 34% in March and about 30% in May). Considering he didn’t get any ST at bats against major leaguers, it wouldnt’ surprise me to see his K-numbers to continue to decrease as the season progresses. I am also intrigued by the fact he’s hitting less worm burners this year then last, and is airing the ball out 39.4% of the time as opposed to just 30.6% of the time last year, which leads me to believe he’s capable of hitting some blasts the remainder of the year. All in all, given his depressed trade value, and the fact that those acquiring him will only be getting the numbers he produces the remainder of year (which I expect to be considerably better then what he’s done thus far, I would argue he’s a hold or buy at this point, no sense in trading a player that will return no value.

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  4. john says:

    comments on raul ibanez?

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  5. Jeremy says:

    So what do you think about Johnny Cueto for David Price?

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  6. so i just got Aaron Harang for Upton and Yunel Escobar. good deal?

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  7. fanOFdefenseAGAIN says:

    Joe Saunders???

    Do you think that his BABIP or his LOB% are sustainable? Please….

    He has experienced a year and 10 (or 11) starts of luck. Could you have written the same about Armando Galaraga before he imploded? Yes, you could have. He started the season out terrifically as well.

    You are a sabermetric blasphemer.

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  8. fanOFdefenseAGAIN says:

    Joura, I’m not done with you yet.

    The premise of this series of articles is that you should “acquire” said players because they are undervalued. Saunders is clearly not undervalued by the majority of novice fantasy players–who represent the lion’s share of his owners. His problem is one of overvaluation. In your post, you are quibbling about the extent to which he is overvalued. Informed observers say vastly. uninformed disagree.

    Saunders just does not work from either a logical or sabermetric standpoint.

    If my point wasn’t clear, here is the summary. Saunders is overvalued by non-quant owners. They therefore acquire him from quant-savy owners at negative expectation. To acquire him back from non-quant owners, quant-savy readers of Fangraphs would have to overpay for him.

    Therefore he is not an acquire target.

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  9. DanDuke says:

    Hah, I traded Cueto for Upton a few weeks ago. Oh well

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  10. miked says:

    lol i said last year that justin upton would be better than his brother this year…. looks like i was right

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  11. Alireza says:

    Is Bourn’s BABIP really so unsustainable? His LD rate is up significantly and he is one of the fastest players in baseball. Both suggest a strong BABIP. His walk rate is up, OSwing down, ZSwing up. He put up a BABIP of about .340 in the minors in 2006 and .330 in Philly in 2007, suggesting last year was the outlier.

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