Week Four 2-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week Four 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

PHI – Jamie Moyer
LAD – Josh Towers
DET – Justin Verlander

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

PIT – Daniel McCutchen
LAD – Vicente Padilla
SEA – Ian Snell

In each of his three starts this year, Moyer has gone six innings. In his first two outings, he gave up five runs but in his last outing he allowed just two unearned runs. Moyer his being his usual stingy self with walks and his strikeout rate is up slightly from a year ago. He has been a bit unlucky with home runs allowed, which along with a 60.6 LOB%, helps explain how his xFIP is a full run lower than his ERA. Moyer is a recommended option in only the deepest of mixed leagues. But his chance to pick up wins makes him a useful NL-only pitcher.

Last December, the Dodgers signed Towers to a minor league deal. After three starts in Triple-A Albuquerque, where he went 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA, the Dodgers are expected to promote him to replace Padilla, who went on the 15-day DL with a sore elbow. There is no guarantee that Towers will get two starts next week, as Los Angeles could shuffle its rotation and have Charlie Haeger move up and get two starts, instead.

Because Verlander finished last year with 19 Wins and a 3.45 ERA, it is easy to forget that he got off to a slow start in 2009. But he started last year 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA after three starts. This year he is 1-1 with a 6.95 ERA after four games. His velocity is just as good as it was a season ago, but batters are making more contact this year. Verlander is allowing more fly balls and more of those balls are leaving the park. But Verlander has been hurt by a 55.6 LOB%. On the whole, Verlander is still a must-start fantasy pitcher.

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3 Responses to “Week Four 2-Start Pitchers Update”

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  1. I like Moyer’s match-ups this week against SF (Wellemeyer) and The Mets (Perez). Should have two W’s at week’s end if the baseball gods allow.

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  2. Dave says:

    “Because Verlander finished last year with 19 Wins and a 3.45 ERA, it is easy to forget that he got off to a slow start in 2009. ”

    if you also remember, I’m pretty sure that after his first few starts, his xFIP was very low, pointing to bad luck in his first few starts last year. but this year those numbers aren’t so good.

    Maybe he’s having a bad start, but he’s pitching to match that bad start, unlike last year, when he was pitching better than the results he was getting. I wouldn’t chalk this up to him being a slow starter at all – I’d worry he’s still worn out from pitching his face off last year.

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    • Brian Joura says:
      FanGraphs Supporting Member

      His HR rate was not significantly different in the early going between the two years . He had 2 HR with 23 FB in 2009 compared to 3 HR with 31 FB this year in the noted periods.

      Where his peripherals stand out is in K/BB ratios. He had 20 Ks and 7 BB in 16 IP last year compared to 19 Ks and 9 BB in 22 IP this year.

      I don’t know if I would go so far as to say he’s pitching to match his bad start but your larger point that he’s not as effective early on this year as he was last year is definitely true. I still view him as a valuable fantasy pitcher.

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