Week Three Trade Possibilities

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off an Emilio Bonifacio for Gil Meche trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Chris Iannetta – The very limited track record in the majors and his .111 average makes Iannetta someone his current owner may want to move. The .067 BABIP and the .222 ISO are reasons you want to get him.

Justin Verlander – He is averaging over 95 mph with his fastball, the highest rate in his major league career. Verlander’s SO/BB ratio of 2.86 is also a career best. So, how does he have an 0-2 record with a 7.88 ERA? He has a .389 BABIP and a 38.8 LOB%. His FIP checks in at 3.88 this season. The Tigers are sixth in defensive efficiency rating in 2009, so we are looking at a lot of bad luck here.

Curtis Granderson – He is striking out at 17.3 percent, which would be his lowest total in the majors. But the hits are just not falling in yet, as his .220 BABIP will attest. Granderson has a lifetime .335 mark in the category. I am a little surprised at him having just one stolen base attempt (successful) but he has only eight singles and four walks so far, so Granderson has not had a ton of opportunities yet.

Carl Pavano – Sure, at this point Pavano is better known for his DL stints and for dating Alyssa Milano. But there is a pitcher inside trying to get out. If someone took a flier on him on Draft Day, they are no doubt disgusted by his 9.69 ERA. But Pavano has pitched decent in two of his three starts this season, all three of which have come on the road. After getting bombed in his first start at Texas, Pavano has a 3.75 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk in 12 IP at Kansas City and at New York. At one point in his life, Pavano was an 18-game winner.

Carlos Lee – With a .244-2-8 line so far this season, Lee is hardly doing awful but it is possible that an owner might be just a tad worried. This is one of the most consistent .300-30-100 guys around and if you can get him at any kind of discount at all, pull the trigger on the deal.

Dump

Carlos Pena – He is second in the majors with six home runs and tied for third with 15 RBIs which should make him very attractive to other owners. But call me crazy, I just do not think he can maintain a .680 SLG. Before the season, Pena was targeted almost exactly alike by all five projection systems, which saw him as a .255-31-77 kind of guy.

Chris Young – This is All-Star Chris Young, the Padres pitcher with the 2-0 record with 14 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. If you cannot trade him, at least take him out of your lineup whenever he makes a road start. Both wins this year have come at home, where he has a 1.38 ERA. Young has a 4.86 ERA on the season.

Orlando Hudson – The O-Dog is riding high, including the first cycle by a home player at Dodger Stadium. Hudson is doing everything you want a fantasy player to do, hitting for average, power and stealing bases. Too bad it cannot last. This is an injury-prone player, one who plays in the middle infield where he is likely to get banged up at some point in the season. But even if he stays healthy, Hudson is not likely to have a .400 BABIP or hit much better than his numbers away from Chase Field the past three seasons, where he batted .274/.339/.392 in 835 plate appearances.

Jarrod Washburn – Since winning 18 games with a 3.15 ERA in 2002, Washburn has pitched six seasons (175 starts), has not won more than 11 in a year and has posted an ERA above 4.32 in five of them. See if someone might be enticed by his 2-0 record with a 1.29 ERA.

Miguel Tejada – That .360 batting average sure looks nice. Too bad it is accompanied by no home runs and only one RBI. The power is gone and that gaudy average will not last.




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21 Responses to “Week Three Trade Possibilities”

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  1. The A Team says:

    I was able to get an unprompted Buehrle and Mclouth offer for Bonifacio early last week. Needless to say I executed it without a moment’s hesitation.

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    • Gregg says:

      Did you throw in a few shares of GM stock with that? That’s the worst deal ever. Enjoy your awesome stats, the other owner is really generous with their players and money!

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      • Jason says:

        Haha, that’s bad, but it’s not the worst deal ever or even the worst trade I’ve seen that involves Bonifacio.

        About two weeks ago the following trade went down in our league:
        Bonifacio+Valverde+Verlander
        for
        Hudson+Putz+…wait for it…Jo-…your jaw should be dropping…han. As in Santana. As in, 12 hours after the trade was made, Johan Santana rang up 13Ks in seven innings and no one was that impressed because we’ve seen it from him so many times before.

        (Coda: two days later the same owner tried to dump Matt Holliday on me. Because he’s a close friend I declined and advised him to call the suicide hotline. He’s in counseling now and doing much better.)

        Except for the tasteless suicide humor all of the above is true, hand to God.

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  2. Pat says:

    I’m targeting Holliday this week. I’m not sure what to expect from him in Oakland, but there has to be a lot of doubt about him right now.

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    • CH says:

      I have Holliday in a long-term keeper league, and I can’t wait for him to get out of Oakland and sign with one of the big-market teams who can afford his ridiculous contract demands. Luckily, the price to keep him has nothing to do with his actual salary, and really anywhere other than San Diego would be better for his numbers. This year, however, appears it will be painful.

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  3. Dan says:

    Thoughts on Berkman? A fairly slow start after a lousy 2nd half of 2008? Buy low, or is he slipping?

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    • Brian Joura says:

      Berkman is notoriously streaky. If someone wants to sell, you should listen.

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      • Kevin S. says:

        Funny Berkman and Pena came up in the same post/comments section. Last week, I dealt Pena and Mauer for the Puma. First comment on the board was “Daylight robbery!”… and it went downhill from there. Of course, this was with a n00b that the better owners have been passing around like a drunk chick at a frat party, but wanted to share my Berkman/Pena story.

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      • Josh Wexler says:

        Brian,

        Firstly, this column is one of the ten most useful things on the interweb as far as I’m concerned. Great freakin job.

        Secondly, I’m currently shopping Berkman for the following reasons: A)I think the biceps tendonitis is a great concern. He’s had a cortisone shot, but he said it was still bothering him afterwards. B)I don’t think a whole post allstar break of .821OPS for Berkman can be dismissed as “streakiness.” It strikes me as more likely an indication of decline. I’d change my mind if there are underlying indicators such as still-elite peripherals but a very low BABIP. I don’t know how to access those splits.

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      • Brian Joura says:

        Josh,

        You can get first and second half BABIP splits at baseball-reference. Here’s the link for Berkman in 2008

        http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=berkmla01&year=2008&t=b

        While you’re there, check out his 2007 splits. He had a so-so first half and a real good second half.

        Thanks for reading and the kind words.

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  4. rafi says:

    But this is the same site that has *twice* told us about how much Washburn will benefit from the new Mariners outfield defense. Sure he wont pitch to this level but you’d have to be in a league of idiots to get someone to pay ace value for him.

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    • Brian Joura says:

      Just like a batter does not need to hit a grand slam each time he comes to the plate, a fantasy owner does not need to get “ace value” to make a trade worthwhile.

      If someone thinks the hot start or the Mariners defense is going to transform Washburn into a top 30-40 pitcher and is willing to pay equivalent value, that is a trade I would make.

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      • ball four says:

        “If someone thinks the hot start or the Mariners defense is going to transform Washburn into a top 30-40 pitcher and is willing to pay equivalent value, that is a trade I would make.” . . . It’s easy to give good advice when you play with the context like that. I’ve played in a lot of leagues with various levels of opposition; I’m positive no one is putting that sort of price tag on Washburn (what’s next, you’ll tell us to move Aaron Hill for Chase Utley? Good work if you can get it).

        Here’s my question to you – where *should* Washburn rank today, on a rest-of-season rank sheet? That’s the more important issue to get on top of, methinks.

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  5. Tommy Two Tone says:

    I was offered Carlos Lee and Justin Verlander for Mark Teixiera and Robinson Cano in a keeper points league. I’m not sure that constitutes selling high or buying low. Opinions?

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  6. Joe says:

    I shook my head in disgust when I saw a fellow owner in my league trade Carl Crawford for Bonifacio.

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  7. Brandon says:

    Not really a buy low, but Doumit’s my catcher and since he went on the DL, I picked up Ianetta from FA. His owner had released him for John Baker because he was hitting under .100.

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  8. Sean says:

    Don’t you think listing Young as a “dump” is a little reactionary? His lone away start came at the hitters’ paradise of paradises, Citizen’s Bank. Being a fly ball pitcher in such a venue would reasonably subject him to poor starts like that. With his velocity back up to normal levels and given a clean bill of health, it seems that after his last start, Young may be an “acquire” candidate, not vice versa.

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  9. Scott G says:

    I think the RBI projection for Pena is low considering the lineup. I was able to move Bonofacio and Gallaraga for Meche and Span. I think I got the better end on both.

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  10. bucco says:

    this is not so much a buy/sell question as a believe it/doubt it one. i already have utley but picked up aaron hill a couple weeks ago anyway. i dont want to hold two 2B all year, so when would be the best time to trade one or the other, and can i trust hill enough to deal utley? i generally feel utley is a top 8 talent, and i usuallly dont like to trade those types of players, but i would clearly get back much more for him than hill.

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  11. Josh says:

    Even if you adjust Washburn’s FIP to his career average HR/FB rate and then adjust the new FIP for his depressed BABIP, Washburn is still looking good. Each 18.56 difference in BABIP increases ERA by 1.31% (see: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-dips1).

    So Washburn SHOULD have a FIP of 3.59, which is still really good. So yeah, make sure you get more for him than what Washburn at 3.59 ERA would be worth.

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