Wellemeyer Roosts in STL

When it comes to transforming drifting pitchers into gold, Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan is considered to possess the Midas Touch. Tony La Russa’s right-hand man since the 80’s, Duncan is often credited with getting the most out of the talent at hand. One of the latest Duncan disciples is right-hander Todd Wellemeyer.

A powerfully built 6-3, 195 pounder, Wellemeyer was originally selected by the Cubs in the 4th round of the 2000 amateur draft. He fooled more than his share of batters in the minors, punching out 9.6 per nine innings, but superfluous free passes often left observers frustrated (4 BB/9).

That lack of fine touch was only exacerbated during three trial-runs with Chicago between 2003 and 2005. Mostly a starter during his minor league tenure, Wellemeyer was placed in the ‘pen upon arriving in the big leagues. His low-90’s heat and occasionally-plus breaking ball induced swings and misses (9.8 K/9 in 84.1 IP), but Wellemeyer was not-so-happily a Three True Outcomes pitcher. He issued 6.5 BB/9 and put many a souvenir onto Waveland Avenue (1.4 HR/9).

And so began Wellemeyer’s nomadic existence. He was flipped to the Marlins prior to opening day in 2006, but he floundered as a fish. After 21.1 innings of getting filleted (5.5 BB/9, 5.48 ERA), Florida disposed of Wellemeyer, but the pitching-starved Royals reeled him in off waivers in June. He was superficially more impressive with KC (3.63 ERA in 57 frames), but an ugly 1-to-1 K/BB ratio (5.8 K’s and BB’s per nine) suggested that was more the product of happenstance than progress. Overall, Wellemeyer’s FIP for the year was 4.83, and that came with a lower-than-expected HR/FB rate of 7.1%.

Evidently the Royals concurred that little progress had been made, as Wellemeyer was let go after sordid beginning to the 2007 season (15.2 IP, 10.34 ERA, 9/11 K/BB). Still seeing some modicum of promise in the then-28 year-old’s 92 MPH heat and hard slider, the Cardinals claimed Wellemeyer of waivers in May. As a Red Bird, he split his time between relief and the rotation, compiling a 3.11 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and a still-elevated 4.1 BB/9 in 63.2 IP. Waiver-wire Wellemeyer wasn’t half-bad in his first action as a major league rotation member, holding opponents to a .702 OPS that far eclipsed his ‘pen work (.830 OPS against).

In ’08, the Cards slotted Wellemeyer into the starting five from the beginning. He made 32 starts for the club, posting a 3.71 ERA in 191.2 innings of work. Does that overstate his case? Yeah, to some extent. Wellemeyer’s FIP was a less-shiny 4.51, as he whiffed 6.29 per nine while benefitting from a .273 BABIP. Still, he exhibited improved control (2.91 BB/9) and was essentially a league-average starter, compiling 1.7 Value Wins. Not bad for a guy whom the Royals dubbed too Proletariat to grace their roster a few springs ago (apparently, it’s okay to suck and start for the Royals so long as you’re a former Brave or have been knighted).

Going forward, it would be prudent to expect some regression in Wellemeyer’s line- he’s not bad by any means, but a sub-four ERA is probably pushing it. CHONE and ZiPS call for identical projections of a 4.57 FIP. That’s not flashy, but you could do far worse in deeper or NL-only leagues. It might have taken five years and four organizations, but Wellemeyer has seemingly found a home.




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A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.


5 Responses to “Wellemeyer Roosts in STL”

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  1. Thanks for spending some time on a this and many other pitchers that don’t make mixed league draft rosters. Players like this are extremely important to a league like our NL only draft one and frankly, its far more interesting to find a season like Wellemeyer’s last year then Roy Oswalt throwing a 3.3 instead of a 2.8. But on the subject, 191 innings of 2.9 BB/9 ball seems like a genuine change in ability. The may regress but it certainly seems more likely then not that Wellemeyer is now a better pitcher then he ever was in the past. And he did give up the homers this spring but 4 BB in 27 innings continues the nice trend into this year. Injuries worry but there’s stuff to like in Wellemeyer in an NL only league.

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  2. and what’s with the itty bitty smiley face in the margin? —>
    g.gif

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  3. Paqs says:

    It’s watching you.

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  4. Paul says:

    Do we know what Dave Duncan’s philosophy is? All I know is that whatever it was, it didn’t mesh well with Anthony Reyes…

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  5. cpebbles says:

    Basically, pitch to contact, use the two-seam fastball, and trust your catcher. Most of the improvement is credited to the extensive game-planning he does in preparation of every start.

    And yeah, Reyes openly clashed with Duncan’s two-seam/contact philosophy when he first arrived in the big leagues, and was never able to show much command of the two-seam fastball.

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