Which Rookie Pitcher Has The Brightest Future?

On Monday, Tampa’s Jeremy Hellickson and Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel took home Rookie of the Year honors in the AL and NL, respectively. Both Hell Boy and Kimbrel (this fellow needs a menacing, pee-your-pants-upon-hearing-it nickname) seemingly have very bright futures ahead of them. But winning ROTY doesn’t always mean that a player is destined for long-term stardom (Jason Jennings and Angel Berroa say hi!)

Today, I want to hear you opinions on a different question: which rookie pitcher (minimum 50 IP in 2011) has the most long-term value? In other words, if you could only have one rookie hurler, which would you choose? Below I’ve listed 15 rookie pitchers who are likely to garner consideration, as well as a quick case for and case against choosing each rookie.

Henderson Alvarez

Case For: With a power sinker that can reach the mid-90s and a tumbling changeup, Alvarez racks up grounders (53.5% in the majors) and has superb control. The 21-year-old righty walked just 1.7 batters per nine innings in the minors, and he issued 1.13 BB/9 in 63.2 IP during his rookie year.

Case Against: Alvarez’s breaking ball lags behind his other pitches, and his sinker-centric approach (71% fastballs as a rookie) means that he probably won’t record many Ks. He punched out 6.5 per nine in the minors.

Brandon Beachy

Case For: The former undrafted free agent had the highest K rate (10.74 per nine) among starters tossing at least 140 innings pitched. Beachy’s repertoire — a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider, slow low-70s curveball and low-80s changeup — is both deep and nasty.

Case Against: Beachy spent more than a month on the DL with a strained oblique, and he’ll have to prove that he can handle a full season’s workload in 2012. His career high in innings pitched prior to 2011 was 134 between AA, AAA and the majors in 2010.

Zach Britton

Case For: Britton was labeled a left-handed Brandon Webb in the minors, using his sinker to produce huge ground ball totals. He wasn’t a total worm burner as a rookie, but his 52.8 GB% was well above-average. Britton also managed to whiff 7.5 batters per nine innings in the upper minors.

Case Against: His control (3.62 BB/9) isn’t always sharp. And, like Alvarez, Britton’s reliance upon his fastball (70.6%) could come at the expense of Ks. His slider is considered a plus pitch and a bat misser, but he threw it only 12 percent of the time in 2011.

Danny Duffy

Case For: Duffy was an elite strikeout pitcher in the minors (10.5 K/9), he sits around 93 with his fastball and can reach the mid-90s, and his curveball and changeup are also promising pitches. His rookie season wasn’t great, but Duffy barely pitched in the high minors (a combined 81.2 IP between AA and AAA) and his xFIP (4.53) was at least more palatable than his ghastly 5.64 ERA.

Case Against: Duffy’s lack of upper-level experience means that he’s got much to learn about the finer aspects of pitching, and it showed in 2011. He often got behind in the count from the get go (51.9 first-pitch strike%, 59.9% average for starters), leading to 4.36 walks per nine innings.

Jeremy Hellickson

Case For: Hell Boy has a pristine minor league track record (9.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9) and pitches in front of arguably the best group of defenders in baseball. He gives up a lot of fly balls (35 GB% in 2011), but that is mitigated somewhat by rangy outfielders and a home park that decreases homers by 11 percent for lefty hitters and eight percent for righties, according to StatCorner. See, who says the Trop is good for nothing? Tampa’s methodical development of pitchers means that he has incrementally increased his workload each season. Hellickson’s swinging strike rate (9.7 percent, well above the 8.1% average for starters) suggests that he’ll strike out more batters next year.

Case Against: While Hellickson’s swinging strike% points to more Ks, his handedness and changeup-heavy approach mean he gets fewer called strikes than most. The Rays are rangy, but he’s not repeating that .223 BABIP. Ditto for Hellickson’s 82 percent strand rate, which was about 11 percentage points above the MLB average.

Kenley Jansen

Case For: K’s! K’s! More K’s! Jansen used his upper-90s gouda and killer cutter to whiff 96 in 53.2 innings, or 16.1 K/9. That wasn’t just the highest among relievers with 50+ IP in 2011. It was the highest among any reliever reaching that innings threshold. Ever. Seriously:

Highest Single-Season K/9 Among Relievers (Min. 50 IP)

Jansen figures to compete with Javy Guerra for the closer’s job. But from where I’m standing, there’s no contest.

Case Against: Jansen had a pair of health scares in 2011, going on the DL with shoulder inflammation and an irregular heartbeat. The latter isn’t expected to be a problem long-term, but the former is concerning for a guy who’s still relatively new to pitching (he converted from catcher in 2009). He could also strand to walk a few less hitters (4.36 BB/9), though that’s just nitpicking when you have a pitcher this dominant.

Craig Kimbrel

Case For: Kimbrel is basically Jansen’s equal in the K department (his 2011 K/9 is sixth on the list above). Hitters just don’t have a chance against his fastball (averaging 96 MPH) and wicked upper-80s breaker. Kimbrel struggled to control the zone in the minors (5.7 BB/9), but he managed to cut that to 3.74 BB/9 last year. In stature, repertoire and results, he really is a right-handed Billy Wagner.

Case Against: I don’t have much to say here, really. But I guess it’s worth pointing out that while Kimbrel’s 2011 was spectacular, we shouldn’t expect him to be THAT good every year based on 70-some lights-out innings. Bill James expects his walk rate to increase in 2012, leading to a 2.04 FIP that’s about a half-run higher than his ’11 mark. For shame, Craig. For shame.

Mike Minor

Case For: The lefty’s peripherals (8.38 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 3.62 xFIP) were better than his 4.14 ERA would suggest. His 2012 Bill James projection is quite bullish, calling for about 8.8 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 3.56 FIP.

Case Against: On most teams, a 24-year-old with the potential to be an above-average starter would be a lock for a rotation spot. But, as a Brave, Minor has to compete with the likes of Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and possibly Arodys Vizcaino. Jair Jurrjens could be traded, but it’s still a crowded field.

Juan Nicasio

Case For: Nicasio didn’t sign out of the Dominican Republic until age 19 and didn’t make his full-season debut in the minors until age 22, but he killed it at Double-A last year (63/10 K/BB in 56.2 IP) and then impressed in Colorado (3.43 xFIP) with his mid-90s fastball and power slider before a line drive off the bat of Ian Desmond broke his neck on August 6. Remarkably, Nicasio is throwing BP sessions in the D.R. and could be cleared for Spring Training.

Case Against: I’m not a doctor, and I don’t claim to know what long-term effect (if any) Nicasio’s injury will have on his mechanics and/or stuff. His recovery does bear watching, though. I would say Nicasio’s lack of upper-level innings in the minors is a problem, but he seems pretty polished nonetheless.

Ivan Nova

Case For: Nova’s heavy fastball allowed him to limit homers (0.7 per nine) and get grounders 52.7% of the time that hitters put the ball in play. He didn’t miss many bats in 2011, but he did see a modest uptick during the summer after calling upon his mid-to-upper-80s slider more often. As a Yankee, he’ll sponge up some cheap W’s in so-so performances due to superb run support.

Case Against: Nova outperformed his peripheral stats in 2011 (3.70 ERA, 4.16 xFIP), and it’s hard to get really excited about his upside when you consider his decent, but hardly great strikeout and walk rates in the minors (6.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9). Unless that slider becomes a real weapon, I don’t see high-K seasons in his future.

Alexi Ogando

Case For: Shifted from the bullpen to the rotation, Ogando still managed to average 95 MPH+ with his fastball. He didn’t punch out a ton of hitters (6.71 K/9), but he exhibited good control (2.29 BB/9) and managed not to get torched by lefty hitters in spite of being a fastball/slider pitcher almost exclusively.

Case Against: Ogando wore down toward the end of the season, not necessarily surprising considering that he pitched all of 111 innings in the minors combined and tossed 41.2 major league innings out of the ‘pen in 2010. He’ll have to show he has the stamina and durability to push past the 160 inning mark. Ogando’s lack of a changeup does make him more susceptible to lefties (4.16 xFIP in 2011).

Michael Pineda

Case For: Pineda posted a 3.42 FIP as a rookie, punishing hitters with his mid-to-upper-90s four-seamer and relying heavily upon a mid-80s slider. The 22-year-old whiffed better than a batter per inning (9.11 K/9), kept his walks in check (2.89 BB/9) and held his own against left-handed hitters (3.82 xFIP) despite barely using his changeup. Pineda likes to pitch up in the zone, and when batters manage to make contact, it’s in the air (36.3 GB%). That might be a problem in some parks, but it’s less so in Safeco ( 95 HR park factor for LHB, 82 HR park factor for RHB).

Case Against: Pineda dealt with an elbow injury in the minors in 2009, and his slider-heavy approach could increase his chance of having durability issues.

Chris Sale

Case For: The string-bean lefty struck out about 10 batters per nine frames and got a grounder about half the time that a batter put the ball in play. Sergio Santos is presumably Chicago’s closer, but Sale was a starter at Florida Gulf Coast University and may well be moved back to the rotation in 2012, with Mark Buehrle a free agent, Gavin Floyd and John Danks possibly on the block and the White Sox looking at a rebuilding phase.

Case Against: Some question whether Sale’s 6-foot-5, 170 pound frame can hold up under a starter’s workload over the long haul. Sale’s mid-90s fastball and low-80s slider miss lots of bats, but he has also surrendered his share of walks (3.42 BB/9 last year). If he’s not moved to the rotation, he could be boxed out of save chances by Santos.

Jordan Walden

Case For: Walden whiffed just about 10 hitters per nine innings, blowing them away with blistering upper-90s heat and a sharp mid-80s slider.

Case Against: That power approach sometimes comes at the expense of control, as Walden’s 42.3 Zone% was three percentage points below the MLB average for relievers. That led to a fairly high walk rate (3.88 BB/9). It was a couple of years ago now, but an elbow injury wiped out much of Walden’s 2009 season in the minors and facilitated his move to the bullpen.

Vance Worley

Case For: Worley punched out 8.13 batters per nine as a rookie, doing it in an unconventional way by posting a low swinging strike rate (5.5 percent) and getting lots of batters looking. Swinging Ks might seem intrinsically better, but they don’t necessarily predict future K rate all that much more than looking Ks.

Case Against: That said, Worley’s MLB K rate was considerably higher than his minor league K rate (6.9). Bill James predicts 7.2 Ks per nine for him next year. Worley also gives up a lot of fly balls (39.3 GB%), which could lead to homers in a home park that inflates them by 16 percent for lefties and 20 percent for righties.

Personally, I think Michael Pineda has the brightest future. He’s a dominant, high-K starter who pounds the strike zone and pitches in a power-crippling park that should limit the long ball damage from his fly ball-heavy approach. So, who ya got? Do you think someone else here has more long-term value? Did I forget someone? Sound off below.





A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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Ryan
12 years ago

I’ll go with Pineda as well – especially if he can develop and start using his changeup on a more regular basis. Despite his impressive performance this season as essentially a 2-pitch rookie, I think there’s still a lot of room for growth.