Who is Jesus Guzman?
Don’t look now, but the San Diego Padres might actually have a useful fantasy hitter. Over the past 30 days, Guzman has hit .343/.384/.600 while receiving regular playing time in the Padres’ lineup. He’s slugging five home runs and stolen three bases in that period as well. While his performance has been impressive, Guzman plays first base — where the level of offense is extremely high. Guzman is riding a hot streak at the moment, however, and could be a useful pickup down the stretch.
Though he’s passed through many different organizations, the 27-year-old first basemen does have a history of success at the minor league level. In his four seasons at AAA, Guzman’s career slash line reads .319/.382/.506. Despite that success, he has never received a shot at regular playing time until this season. While it’s unlikely for players in their mid-20s to suddenly figure things out for good, we’ve seen players come up and experience hot streaks like this before. The Padres seem committed to playing Guzman down the stretch, so he should have a legitimate chance to show whether he can keep up the pace.
Thus far, Guzman’s ability appears to have translated well to the majors. He’s managed to hit for a high average, slug a couple of home runs and even steal some bases. While his BABIP is bound to experience some regression, and his walk rate could stand to be a bit higher, Guzman has at least shown that he deserves to keep playing until his hot streak ends.
Problem is, the level of offense at first base is extremely high; meaning Guzman’s performance might not be as impressive in most leagues. Due to an error over at ESPN, however, Guzman actually qualifies as a shortstop; increasing his value exponentially.
If you play in an ESPN league, this makes Guzman an extremely valuable pickup. Over the last month, Guzman actually rates as the second best shortstop according to ESPN’s player rater — behind Troy Tulowitzki. At a position where offense is extremely scarce, Guzman could be a great injury fill-in down the stretch. If your team has lost Stephen Drew — or Rickie Weeks in leagues that allow a MI spot — Guzman is definitely worth a pick up.
Unfortunately, Guzman loses a lot of value in non-ESPN leagues. In leagues where he qualifies solely at first base, Guzman is likely nothing more than an injury fill-in. More than likely, teams will have players similar or better than Guzman in their starting roles. Perhaps Guzman is best served as a UTIL fill-in for teams looking to ride a hot streak for a few weeks.
The Padres are in desperate need of offense, and Guzman seems to be hitting at just the right time. He’s managed to gain the trust of Bud Black for the time being, and it looks like he’s going to be the starter at first base down the stretch. In many leagues, Guzman is nothing more than a fill-in for teams looking to ride a hot streak. In ESPN leagues, Guzman could be a legitimate contributor to teams still fighting for the playoffs. His availability at the shortstop position really makes a huge difference. If you play in an ESPN league — and don’t own Troy Tulowitzki — Guzman a must add.
Can he be a late bloomer ala Nelson Cruz?
…or the next Joey Bats!!
Well Joey Bats did have some inconsistent MLB playing time with the Buccos before hitting it big end of the year in Toronto 2009. IIRC Cruz and now Guzman never got more than a taste of the majors but always did well in the minors.
Hopefully Guzman is more Cruz than the Kilamonster.. poor guy was definitely AAAA labeled.
I think the Cruz comparison is apt. I have been watching this guy for three years because I was certain Oakland would bring him up to play 1B two years ago, and he was listed as a 2B.
The thing is, he has been moved all over the infield, and SF tried him in LF two years ago. He is just a terrible, terrible defensive player anywhere they’ve tried him. SF did bring him up for a week two years ago after he hit something like .430 for a month in the PCL. But Bochy couldn’t tolerate his defense. And he’s been sort of a tweener with the bat, so I can see why some AL team didn’t jump on him as a DH and just give him 500 ABs. Truth is, he’d be more productive than Billy Butler for a $7.6m savings.
For the future, I hope Black plays him everyday so we can see what he really is. As alluded to above, this guy is a rhythm player who tends to have steady production around .800 OPS for four moths, and a complete absurd hot streak for at least a month. Believe it or not, he has not had his hot streak yet this year.
Guzman or Hosmer ROS?
Guzman or Joey Bats HOF?
Should I just drop Gaby Sanchez?
If so who of these FAs in my league you pick ROS? Also what underlying stats would you use to compare them ROS?:
All these guys have OPS > .900 past 14 days…
Guzman
Trumbo
Lee
Kotchman
Encarnacion
Carp
OPS > .800 past 14 days…
Hosmer
Jackson
E5 (or Double E) is known for his insane hot streaks and for now he’s firmly entrenched in the DH slot. I would not pick up CoJax or Kotch ever, they just don’t provide enough power unless your league uses OBP and OPS metrics instead of standard 5×5.
We use R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG
It’s really about should I drop Sanchez for E5, Hosmer, Guzman or Trumbo.
E5, Hosmer, and Guzman have some SBs the last month.
Trumbo has been great except for OBP & 8 SB on the year but none recently.
I’m currently in first place so I’ll wait as long as I can – either until the playoffs to see which of these guys is still producing, or until the league starts a run on 1B, which isn’t likely because it’s a 10 team league and there are a bunch of really good 1B out there…
One thing about Guzman: though his splits at the MLB level this season have been relatively equal, in AAA this year he hit only .284/.377/.399 against RHP but a ridiculous .475/.556/.918 against LHP (71 PA). My impression when he was first called up was that he was meant to be a DH for interleague play and an occasional lefty masher, but with Rizzo having such a hard time I guess he’s pretty much got the first base job locked up for the season.
Saw him vs the Mets last night, the dude takes some mighty hacks but from the eye-test his batspeed is pretty good and he definitely knows how to hit.
Dear ESPN,
Get off Jose Reyes’ nuts he is not the #1 SS in fantasy.
Sincerely,
Shaun
I think Guzman can flat out rake. If he can catch the ball at all, he’ll produce. He is brutal defensively though.
Why can’t ESPN just fix the damn error? This is a big advantage to some teams at a crucial part of the season. Every article I’ve read regarding Guzman leaves me feeling slightly dirty…as if they are saying “use our in-depth analysis to win your league, but also feel free to play a 1B at SS because ESPN is clueless.”
Suggested editorial correction:
“While it’s unlikely for players in their mid-20s to suddenly figure things out for good…”
Perhaps should say:
“While it’s unlikely for GMs to suddenly figure things out on some of these previously-dismissed AAA players with a 900 career OPS… Jed Hoyer may prove an exception.”
Guzman currently has the most RBIs (25) in the league since the All Star break.. Thats worth a pickup while he remains hot and certainly seems to qualify as more than a fill in for the time being..