Who Will Win The Home Run Derby

I wrote up the home run derby contestants on our sister site The Hardball Times earlier in the day, but I thought I would give you some additional charts in case you were thinking about putting down some gummi bears on the outcome of the home run derby coming up soon. All stats in the charts are current Through Monday, July 15, and the odds come from Sports.Bodog.Eu. It looks like there are two front-runners according to these numbers.

Table #1, Overview

Hitter Handed Odds HR PA/HR ISO Longest HR Avg True Dist Avg Spd Off Bat wFA/C wFT/C wCH/C
MLB AVG 9 38.3 0.147 396.8 103.4 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedro Alvarez LHB 6:1 24 13.9 0.266 456 407.1 105.5 2.39 3.30 -1.00
David Wright RHB 11:1 13 30.7 0.203 464 404.7 103.4 0.80 2.67 3.53
Bryce Harper LHB 5:1 13 18.6 0.259 434 406.5 104.7 0.07 4.76 1.29
Michael Cuddyer RHB 14:1 16 19.8 0.239 434 406.8 103.9 1.16 -1.13 1.83
Prince Fielder LHB 7:2 16 26.4 0.190 460 396.2 102.4 0.11 0.27 0.70
Robinson Cano LHB 5:1 21 19.5 0.229 442 401.4 103.4 0.82 -0.02 4.49
Yoenis Cespedes RHB 6:1 15 22.7 0.195 440 407.9 105.2 0.01 0.46 -1.72
Chris Davis LHB 11:4 37 10.6 0.402 439 403.9 103.8 2.04 2.22 5.35


Table #2: Batted Ball Data

Hitter Handed Odds No Doubt Homers Just Enough Homers Lucky Homers Right Center Left %Pull Field %Center Field %Opposite Field
Pedro Alvarez LHB 6:1 9 8 16 6 2 66.7% 25.0% 8.3%
David Wright RHB 11:1 2 5 1 1 5 7 53.8% 38.5% 7.7%
Bryce Harper LHB 5:1 1 3 2 7 3 3 53.8% 23.1% 23.1%
Michael Cuddyer RHB 14:1 2 5 4 4 8 50.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Prince Fielder LHB 7:2 3 4 1 12 4 75.0% 25.0% 0.0%
Robinson Cano LHB 5:1 6 4 4 13 5 3 61.9% 23.8% 14.3%
Yoenis Cespedes RHB 6:1 2 6 1 7 7 46.7% 46.7% 6.7%
Chris Davis LHB 11:4 8 9 2 14 12 11 37.8% 32.4% 29.7%

Table #3: Projected Citi Field Effect

Hitter Odds Lost Homers Marginal Homers Impact Rate Degree of Impact
Pedro Alvarez 6:1 1 1 8.3% Medium
David Wright 11:1 0.0% None
Bryce Harper 5:1 0.0% None
Michael Cuddyer 14:1 1 6.3% Marginal
Prince Fielder 7:2 2 1 18.8% High
Robinson Cano 5:1 1 4 23.8% Very High
Yoenis Cespedes 6:1 1 2 20.0% High
Chris Davis 11:4 2 1 8.1% Medium

Table #4: Temperature Data

Time Temperature
8:00 PM 92
9:00 PM 89
10:00 PM 88
11:00 PM 87
Expected Impact: “+6 feet



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Jeffrey Gross is an attorney who periodically moonlights as a (fantasy) baseball analyst. He also responsibly enjoys tasty adult beverages. You can read about those adventures at his blog and/or follow him on Twitter @saBEERmetrics.


19 Responses to “Who Will Win The Home Run Derby”

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  1. Mike says:

    Kind of odd to say that there are 2 favorites, but not mention who or why they are.

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    • Brad says:

      I sincerely hope you’re just trolling.

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    • Jeffrey Gross says:

      Mike,

      I make my favorites recommendation on the THT Article that is linked, but my two favorites are Alvarez and Harper. I think Wright is the dark horse. I am rooting for Chris Davis to win it all, however, as I have a long time crush on his potential that finally feels vindicated.

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  2. Jeffrey Gross says:

    Just an FYI for those reading, if a row/column above is blank, that means it’s a “zero”

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  3. Blockhead says:

    Why were “plenty” homers excluded?

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  4. bada bing says:

    This Pitbull performance is fascinating. Where is the open thread for the Derby? Aren’t home runs the point of baseball anyway? The only thing missing from the performance seems to be a highway overpass.

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      Worst. Lip. Synching. Ever. (and the air guitar was legendary bad too)

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    • STEALTH says:

      I can’t stand Pitbull. I can’t judge the performance since I didn’t see it, but it can’t be worse than his music. I guess if it was lip synching, it was exactly as bad as his music…

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  5. JS7 says:

    Cespedes.

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  6. STEALTH says:

    I have been looking over these three charts, and I cannot see how it points to Harper and Alvarez as the front-runners. Which stats are leading you to those two?

    I am going with my former Brewer, giant Prince Fielder, hittin’ baseballs, out to Neptune.
    I also admire Chris Davis (and have over drafted him twice while he was with the Rangers), but I’ll go with Prince.

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    • STEALTH says:

      *they point… Sorry for the grammar slip.

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    • Ray says:

      Weird timing for the reply…DVR?

      I think Jeff is saying that his favorites are Harper and Alvarez, but that the stats point to two clear favorites (as Alvarez/Wright were #1/2 in each category).

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      • STEALTH says:

        Ha, yeah, I hadn’t started watching yet. I think Prince was already gone by the time I posted.

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    • Penelope says:

      The “odds” column, per usual, shows the favorites. That’s it. So it’s Davis and Fielder.

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    • Jeffrey Gross says:

      I was looking at age (and assumed durability) expected impact of citi field and avg home run distance. I think handedness helped Cespedes, but still find it fascinating that he’s been the worst changeup hitter of the group this year and yet won it all.

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      • STEALTH says:

        None of the previous recent winners were all that young, right?

        For Cespedes, I guess he had the distance and ball speed off bat working in his favor, but yeah, the changeup value makes it surprising. The guy pitching to Cespedes was throwing the ball with a somewhat strange downward trajectory.

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  7. pft says:

    Just looking at table 1 true distance and speed off bat it was Cespedes or Alvarez. Anyways, completely different game hitting BP pitches and live pitching. Not enough data to really project anything, although if you have a chance to watch players in BP you probably have a better shot at it.

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