The Game: Baseball
2017 Pre-Season Projections
2017 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
2017 Updated In-Season Projections
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Win Probability & Box Scores
2017 Projected Standings
2016 Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds Graphs
2017 Free Agent Tracker!
Minor League Leaders
Combined WAR Leaderboards
League Average Heatmaps
Team Batting Stats
Team Pitching Stats
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
Team Depth Charts
Positional Depth Charts
Upcoming FanGraphs Events
- March 5th, 2017
- April 6th, 2017
- April 17th, 2017
- May 15th, 2017
K% & BB%
K/9 & BB/9
TZ & TZL
Park Factors by Handedness
Help Support FanGraphs
Become a Member
Already a member?
11/20/1975 (41 y, 3 m, 7 d)
1998 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 5, Overall: 5, Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Add New Contract
Drew, who had been disabled because of shoulder and finger injuries, was activated Sunday and went 1-for-5 with an RBI in the second game of Boston's doubleheader with the Yankees. (9/26/2011)
2016's Best Pitches by Results
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
The Speedy Tommy Harper And The Random Career Year
Paul Swydan (FanGraphs)
The Next Lance Berkman
Eno Sarris (RotoGraphs)
The Red Sox Should Not Sign Grady Sizemore
Jeff Zimmerman (FanGraphs)
Free Agent Market: Corner Outfield
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
After an initial disappointing year in 2007, Drew posted a good year for the Sox in 2008 and followed that up with another solid year in 2009. At the plate he was very good, as usual, with a wOBA of .389, and got 539 PAs, which is about what the Sox should hope for with Drew’s history of injuries. Drew walked a lot (15.4% of his PAs) – again, as usual – and thus had an OBP just under .400. But he also hit for more power, as measured by ISO, than he had since 2004. The power spike was largely the result of a drop in ground balls (just 39%, his lowest ever), which resulted in more line drives and fly balls, and thus more extra-base hits. Add in solid defense in right and Drew was the 11th most valuable outfielder in 2009.
The Year Ahead:
Since a big portion of Drew’s value comes from walks, doubles, and defense, his fantasy value is a lot less than his actual value. Also, because of his injury history, it is better to expect closer to 500 than 600 PAs for Drew in 2010. He should hit around .280, with 17-ish HRs (with a ceiling around 25), 75 runs, 65 RBIs, and fewer than five steals. He hits in a solid lineup so when he plays, he has the chance for RBIs and runs; on the other hand, his high number of walks limits his RBIs. Overall, in traditional fantasy leagues, especially ones without a DL, he is only an average outfielder. In leagues with a DL or ones that count doubles, OBP, or walks, his value increases. (Dave Allen)
Drew is remarkably consistent when it comes to fantasy production, hitting between 19 and 24 homers in four of the last five years while offering either 64 or 68 RBI in the last four. His AVG dipped to just .255 in 2010, his lowest in eight years, and his ISO dipped below the .200 mark for just the second time since 2003. At 34 years old, age-related decline is starting to become a very real concern for Drew. It's unlikely that he'll completely fall off a cliff, though his power output will probably continue to slide rather than rebound. The AVG can be hit or miss; Drew could easily climb back into the .270-.280 range with some more BABIP luck. Plate discipline is usually J.D's strong suit, but in 2010 he swung at an uncharacteristically high 20.6% of the pitches he saw outside of the strike zone, an increase of close to 5% from previous years. The RBI and runs-scored numbers should continue to be there in 2011 because of the lineup around him, but tread carefully with Drew. (Mike Axisa)
The Quick Opinion:
The signs are ominous for Drew, who was never a great fantasy buy because of middling RBI and AVG totals. Expect his power to continue to decline, though the chances of a total breakdown are small.
Drew has little value beyond being a late-round flier. His health and skills have degraded to the point that he is no longer a good fantasy option. Plus, he's retired. (Jeff Zimmerman)
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Only stats on the same scale can be grouped.
Updated: Monday, February 27, 2017 3:33 AM ET
Terms of Service
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
FOX Sports Engage Network Partner
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media as distributed by STATS.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.