Help Support FanGraphs

Nick Castellanos
Birthdate: 3/4/1992 (25 y, 23 d)     Bats/Throws: R/R     Height/Weight: 6-4/210     Position: 3B
Drafted: 2010 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1s, Pick: 12, Overall: 44, Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract: $3M / 1 Years (2017)
RotoWire News: Castellanos has looked comfortable batting second this spring, and he'll likely begin the season in that spot, reports. (3/19/2017)
Profiles:  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  (Click Year to Expand / Close)
Profile: Castellanos looked good — finally, he looked good — in his injury-shortened 2016 season. He has incrementally bolstered his power throughout his short career thanks to continually improving pull and fly ball rates. The real question, then, is if the career-high 13.7% home run-to-fly ball rate was legitimate in light of the league-wide power surge. Honestly, it's hard to know. When he makes contact — a strong "when" — he hits the ball authoritatively. But that authority comes in the form of line drives that buoy his batting average but suppress his HR/FB rate. He may always underperform in regard to the latter. Statcast really liked him in 2016, so there's no question he earned his keep last year - it just doesn't guarantee he'll do it again, at least not with the same efficacy. Steamer is pessimistic, but that's its job; it assumes regression rather than stabilization or even continued improvement. But it's possible that the latter is true, that this is the real Castellanos. (He's only 25, after all.) Realistic outcomes range from what he did to 2015 to what he did in 2016 - in other words, anywhere from 15 to 25 home runs with a good-but-not-great average. Perhaps splitting the difference (20 homers, .270) is the best approach. The elite tier of third basemen runs deep before a steep drop-off, so Castellanos is more of a back-end option with top-10 upside. For those willing to look past it, an "injury-prone" tag could make his modest floor with room for more a cheap acquisition on draft day. (Alex Chamberlain)

The Quick Opinion: It's hard to know if Castellanos, only 25, is the 15-homer hitter he used to be or the 25-homer hitter he was last year when everyone and their mothers hit for power. Still, he is young and improving, and he offers a solid floor with top-10 upside as a back-end third baseman in 15-team mixed leagues.

If you would like to make a projection for this player, please Log In or Register.

Time Frame
By Year
By Age
By Day
By Game
Full Season