The Game: Baseball
2017 Pre-Season Projections
2017 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
2017 Updated In-Season Projections
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Win Probability & Box Scores
2017 Projected Standings
2016 Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds Graphs
2017 Free Agent Tracker!
Minor League Leaders
Combined WAR Leaderboards
League Average Heatmaps
Team Batting Stats
Team Pitching Stats
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
Team Depth Charts
Positional Depth Charts
K% & BB%
K/9 & BB/9
TZ & TZL
Park Factors by Handedness
Help Support FanGraphs
Become a Member
Already a member?
5/31/1984 (32 y, 8 m, 23 d)
2006 June Amateur Draft - Round: 6, Pick: 22, Overall: 188, Team: Oakland Athletics
$1M / 1 Years (2017)
Bailey is expected to compete with Huston Street and Cam Bedrosian for the closer job this spring, ESPN.com reports. (12/7/2016)
The Angels' Cheap Bet on Spin
Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs)
Bullpen Report: April 2, 2016
Paul Kastava (RotoGraphs)
Not Every Free Agent Is Expensive
Paul Swydan (FanGraphs)
BREAKING: J.J. Putz and Andrew Bailey
Eno Sarris (RotoGraphs)
Bullpen Report: May 15, 2013
Colin Zarzycki (RotoGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
Converted from the starting rotation to the bullpen in the summer of 2008, Bailey established himself as one of the most dominant relief arms in the game in 2009. The 6’3’’, 230 pound righty tossed more innings than any other closer in the Majors, making life miserable for opposing lineups every step of the way. Bailey pummeled opponents with three plus pitches: a 94 mph fastball, an 89 mph cutter, and a 78 mph curveball. His curve was 2.9 runs above average per 100 pitches, while his fastball came in at +2.1 and the cutter at +1.5. Bailey had the lowest rate of contact on pitches within the strike zone among relievers, and he ranked third among 'pen arms with 2.4 WAR. Oakland's stopper also displayed fine touch, locating over 52% of his pitches within the strike zone.
The Year Ahead:
Bailey should be considered one of the elite closers in baseball, in the same conversation as the Nathans and Sorias of the world. However, no one should expect him to post a 1.84 ERA again. Bailey's BABIP was extremely low, at .234. Closers generally have a lower BABIP than do starters, and pitching with the expansive foul territory in the Oakland Coliseum surely can't hurt. That mark will likely rise at least somewhat in 2010. Bailey's low 5.6% HR/FB rate also appears likely to climb. All of which is to say that the power righty should be merely dominant next year, as opposed to other-worldly. Bailey might have gotten some bounces in his favor in 2009, but there's nothing fluky about his skill set. He can hammer batters with three quality offerings, and will likely be slamming the door for the A's for years to come. (David Golebiewski)
Pop quiz: name the closer for a Bay Area team who throws a hard fastball, but doesn't sport a thick, artificially colored beard, flashy shoes or a mohawk. Yep, Oakland's Andrew Bailey. Bailey may not have the attention-grabbing qualities of the closer on the other side of the Bay, but he followed his 2009 RoY campaign with a strong, if injury-shortened sophomore effort. In his profile last year, David Golebiewski warned against expecting another 1.84 ERA, but Bailey exceeded his 2009 figure with a 1.47 mark. Though he struck out fewer batters in 2010, Bailey kept his batted-ball rates right in line with the numbers he was in 2009, and racked up 24 saves despite the time he missed. The blemish on Bailey's '10 season was the time he missed with injuries, which was capped with a September trip to Dr. James Andrews with a sore elbow. Fortunately, he was given a clean bill of health after a clean-up procedure. Assuming his health holds up, Bailey should return to his spot as one of the league's best closers, and rack up his share of saves. (Patrick Newman)
The Quick Opinion:
Injuries were enough to slow him down, but they did not stop Bailey from joining the top class of closers.
For the second year in a row, Bailey's season was cut short by injury. He had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in late 2010, and he missed nearly the first two months of 2011 while recovering from a forearm strain. Bailey was at least sharp when he returned last season, with a 41/12 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.86 FIP in 41.2 innings. He seemingly relied less on his cutter and went to his low-90s four-seamer more often, which resulted in a lower ground ball rate (37 percent). That wasn't a problem in Oakland's spacious Coliseum, but it's something to keep in mind in Boston. He'll still likely be the Red Sox' closer, but Mark Melancon and Daniel Bard will keep him honest. (David Golebiewski)
The Quick Opinion:
Bailey's value is hard to gauge -- he's very good, but there's downside potential due to his history of elbow and forearm woes. For what it's worth, his fastball velocity spiked to 95 MPH late in the year, suggesting his stuff is none the worse for wear. Draft him, but you might want to grab Daniel Bard as a back-up plan.
It's not uncommon for a relief pitcher to have three outings in any given season in which nothing is working and they give up two or more runs. But usually those outings are spread out over a six-month season. For Bailey, his three all came during September, at a time when he was trying to show that he was not only healthy but also worthy of the team's closer role in 2013. It was a tiny sample -- just 15 1/3 innings worth -- but between the drop in strikeout rate, the rise in walk rate and the continued degradation of his ground-ball rate, Bailey showed very little that would lead the Sox to that conclusion. As such, they went out and acquired Joel Hanrahan in an offseason trade. No matter which one ends up being the closer, it's safe to say that Bailey isn't in line for a full season of saves. Then again, he rarely is anyway, considering the fact that he hasn't hit 50 innings pitched in any of the past three campaigns. (Paul Swydan)
The Quick Opinion:
Injured during spring training, Red Sox fans spent most of 2012 eagerly awaiting Bailey's Boston debut. That is, until he finally made said debut. The team's winter acquisition of Joel Hanrahan certainly cannot be viewed as an encouraging development for Bailey's fantasy value.
Coming into 2014, Andrew Bailey was desperate to shake the injury-prone label that had followed him from Oakland to Boston. After Joel Hanrahan went down with his own bum elbow, Bailey was given the keys to the ninth inning, only to eventually lose the job and then lose his season to major shoulder surgery. Non-tendered after having his labrum and shoulder capsule repaired, Bailey will be out for at least the first month or two of the 2014 season, although it wouldn't be shocking if his absence dragged further. While shoulder injury prognosis has gradually improved over the last decade, the type of damage we are taking about is nothing to sneeze at. Before the injury, Bailey was enjoying a bit of a renaissance in the peripheral department, posting the highest strikeout rate of his big league career and his highest whiff percentage since his rookie year. His walk rate has climbed from seven percent in Oakland to 10% the last two years in Boston, hurting his ERA estimators. However, if he could maintain a near-30% K%, he won't have too many problems, even if his elite command is gone. The safest play for fantasy owners is to just wait-and-see. Bailey is not draftable in standard leagues but could be a nice waiver play depending on where he lands and how reports of his rehab outings sound. (
The Quick Opinion:
Andrew Bailey's promising bounceback 2013 was derailed by major shoulder surgery in June. Even with improved strikeout numbers, owners will need to wait-and-see how Bailey's in-season rehab progresses before investing anything more than an unused disabled list slot on him.
In 2015, Bailey got on a big league mound for the first time after missing parts of two seasons for shoulder surgery, and as one might expect, the results were not pretty. In 8.2 innings with the Yankees, Bailey allowed 13 baserunners, and fanned six batters while walking five. Somewhat encouragingly, Bailey retained much of the velocity (93.1 mph average in 2015) from his heyday with the A's (~ 94 mph average), but it remains to be seen how much rust he can knock off as he turns 32 early next season. He'll do that with the Phillies, with whom he's signed a minor league pact for 2016. It's hard to know exactly what his role will be with the club if he makes the roster, but with no defined closer following the departure of Ken Giles, the sky could be the limit. Baby steps first, though. (Brandon Warne)
The Quick Opinion:
Bailey might be someone to watch at the 2016 season goes on, but he's still hasn't thrown more than 40 big league innings in a year since 2011. Keep him way, way back in the recesses of your brain.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Only stats on the same scale can be grouped.
Updated: Thursday, February 23, 2017 3:34 AM ET
Terms of Service
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
FOX Sports Engage Network Partner
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media as distributed by STATS.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.