The Game: Baseball
2017 Pre-Season Projections
2017 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
2017 Updated In-Season Projections
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Win Probability & Box Scores
2017 Projected Standings
2016 Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds Graphs
2017 Free Agent Tracker!
Minor League Leaders
Combined WAR Leaderboards
League Average Heatmaps
Team Batting Stats
Team Pitching Stats
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
Team Depth Charts
Positional Depth Charts
Upcoming FanGraphs Events
- March 5th, 2017
- April 6th, 2017
- April 17th, 2017
- May 15th, 2017
K% & BB%
K/9 & BB/9
TZ & TZL
Park Factors by Handedness
Help Support FanGraphs
Become a Member
Already a member?
2/6/1987 (30 y, 21 d)
2008 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 2, Overall: 2, Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
$5.8M / 1 Years (2016)
Alvarez is out of the lineup Sunday against the Yankees, MLB.com reports. (10/2/2016)
Can Baseball Solve the "Yips"?
Travis Sawchik (FanGraphs)
NFBC Slow Draft, Part 2: We Report, You Deride
The Birchwood Brothers (RotoGraphs)
Do All the Free-Agent Sluggers Have a Home?
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 317 – AL LABR Re»
Paul Sporer (RotoGraphs)
Orioles Settle for Option C, Turn DH into Right Fi»
August Fagerstrom (FanGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Though it's good and great to be suspicious of major-league equivalencies (MLEs), Alvarez's Major League debut certainly makes a case for using them at least as a baseline. Following a mid-season call-up, Alvarez struck out slightly more, walked slightly less, and hit home runs at a slightly lower rate in his 386 plate appearances than he had in 278 Triple-A PAs. In terms of what we learned about Alavrez, one thing is that his power's almost definitely real, as the third baseman compiled a total of 29 homers across the two levels. Another thing is that contact might be an issue for the 24-year-old: Alvarez struck out in 34.3% of his MLB at-bats, and was able to post an average north of .250 only because of a .341 BABIP. Is he the sort of player to sustain high BABIPs? It's possible, but unlikely. For 2011, at least, expect Alvarez to continue producing good power numbers (i.e. HRs, RBIs, some runs) while struggling to bat much higher than 2010's effort. (Carson Cistulli)
The Quick Opinion:
Hit 29 home runs between Triple-A and the Majors in his age-23 season. Should deliver similar, if not greater production, in 2011, but still has contact issues.
Pedro entered 2011 with the chance to really break out. Instead he fell right on his face. In 2010, he hit 29 home runs between his time in the minors and majors. He was able to put up an okay .256 average. It took a .341 batting average on balls in play to keep his average that high since he had a 30% strikeout rate. The batting average on balls in play wasn't totally out of line with the .335 BABIP he put up in the minors. In 2012, that BABIP fell like a rock and the rest of his stats came with it -- his average went from .256 to .191. It wasn't just his average that took a hit, as Alvarez' home runs were down 75% (16 to four) while his plate appearances were only down 32% (386 to 262). He is not hitting the ball hard enough to strike out 30% of the time. Only Mark Reynolds and Drew Stubbs had a strikeout percentage over 30% among all qualified hitters in 2011. There is little sign of his strikeout rate declining, so it will be imperative for him to have a high BABIP to be an everyday starter. In 2012, a late round or $1 flier might be a good idea. The key for him to have more value, though, is to get his strikeout rate in the 20% range and I just don't see that happening. (Jeff Zimmerman)
The Quick Opinion:
Pedro Alvarez doesn't hit with enough power to be an effective fantasy player if he continues to strike out over 30% of the time.
At this point, Pedro Alvarez is everything we thought he would be. He mashes homers, but he also strikes out far too often to be an elite third baseman. Alvarez also hits too many balls on the ground for a power hitter, limiting the number of balls that have a chance to leave the park. Alvarez is still only 26 years old, so he has a chance to add even more power numbers to his portfolio, especially with a little more loft in his swing. The Pirates offense has some potential, and Alvarez could be a key cog. Alvarez is not quite a top-12 third baseman, but he could be if a few balls bounce his way. (Zach Sanders)
The Quick Opinion:
Pedro Alvarez is a big bundle of power, but he still has trouble making consistent contact. He’s not quite a top-12 third baseman, but he’s not far off.
Pedro Alvarez has no aversions to swinging. His 30.6% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate mark about as high and low of either those statistics you'll find among major league regulars. But Pedro, despite his .235 batting average and .306 on-base percentage, hits the ball and hits the ball very far. His 36 homers in 2013 tied for the NL lead, and overall, the fact that his weighted offense was 11% better than league average makes him a great play in linear weights leagues. The low plate discipline and contact skills definitely hurt his usefulness in more traditional leagues, but most any roster can find a place to put a 30+ homer player. (
The Quick Opinion:
He has the deadly duo of almost no on-base or contact skills and killer Powah. The combination makes him more valuable in a linear weights league, but even an on-base percentage or batting average team should be able to find a spot for a 30+ homer hitter.
Kerplunk. That's the sound of the fall from grace Alvarez has experienced, from top tier power hitter to strict platooner. Alvarez's home run total was cut in half, his isolated sluging dropped below .200 and he eventually lost his starting job. But it wasn't all bad news. His walk rate jumped to a career high, clearing the 10% plateau for the first time, and his strikeout rate dipped to its lowest ever rate, marking a significant improvement from previous seasons. Now the challenge is sustaining that step forward in plate discipline while also hitting for power at prior levels. It won't be an easy feat, but does provide the path to a career fantasy year. He'll be moving across the diamond to serve as the Pirates new starting first baseman, but will likely open the year in a platoon role, taking a seat against southpaws. That's going to cut into his counting stats, but should benefit his batting average. With his perceived value at an all-time low, he should be a profitable purchase in NL-Only leagues and good gamble for your mixed league team's bench. (
The Quick Opinion:
It was a season to forget for Alvarez, as his power waned and he eventually lost his starting job. But career bests in both walk and strikeout rates suggest he wasn't totally lost at the plate, and they could be the fuel needed to drive a rebound.
Pedro Alvarez thrives at the periphery of the three-true-outcomes discussion; he has struck out, walked or hit a home run in 44.1% of his career plate appearances. The composition of those outcomes is important, though, because Alvarez strikes out way more often than he walks. And, as a lefty who likes to pull the ball but also hits a few too many grounders, his batting average on balls in play suffers more than it already should. Regardless, you get exactly what you expect: lots of home runs at the expense of batting average. Alvarez took his next step in progressing as a hitter in 2015 by regaining his power stroke from 2013 while carrying over his plate discipline improvements from 2014. He won't keep hitting home runs on a third of his fly balls, but he's a perennial 30-homer threat made more threatening by the friendly confines of Camden Yards. Meanwhile, his projected .240ish batting average carries some BABIP upside should he ever get lucky in that department (like he did in 2012). Now in the American League, Alvarez should, at the very least, see a large chunk of the designated hitter duties, and that can turn into additional time at first base should the Orioles wisely opt to start Chris Davis over Mark Trumbo in right field. Even in a platoon, Alvarez is a low-risk upside play in the late rounds that, if deployed only against righties, could generate a solid return on investment. (Alex Chamberlain)
The Quick Opinion:
Now employed in the American League, Pedro Alvarez should see plenty of reps amid a boom-or-bust lineup, either at designated hitter or first base. He's best deployed as the robust side of a platoon given his anemic production versus lefties, making him a cheap source of power for fantasy teams with that kind of roster flexibility.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Only stats on the same scale can be grouped.
Updated: Monday, February 27, 2017 3:33 AM ET
Terms of Service
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
FOX Sports Engage Network Partner
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media as distributed by STATS.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.