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Rick Porcello
Birthdate: 12/27/1988 (28 y, 2 m, 27 d)     Bats/Throws: R/R     Height/Weight: 6-5/195     Position: P
Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 27, Overall: 27, Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract: $82.5M / 4 Years (2016 - 2019)
RotoWire News: Porcello allowed one run on two hits and one walk while striking out nine over six innings in a minor league game Thursday, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports. (3/23/2017)
Profiles:  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  (Click Year to Expand / Close)
Profile: Porcello signed a 4-year, $82.5 million deal just as the 2015 season kicked off and then proceeded to post a near-5.00 ERA in 172 innings. A year later he won the American League Cy Young and talk of the contract being a bust has subsided. Interestingly, if you neutralize his home run rate as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) does, he has essentially been the same guy for the last three years with xFIP totals of 3.68, 3.72, and 3.89. Yep, the Cy Young season is the worst of the bunch despite career-bests in strikeout (21%) and walk (4%) rate. A career-low batting average on balls in play (.269) and the second-best left on base rate (74%) certainly aided his award-winning season. The truth is that he wasn’t as bad as his 2015 and he’s probably not quite as good as his 2016. Porcello has abandoned his heavy groundball ways of his early-20s for a near-even groundball-to-flyball ratio so the fact that Boston has a solid defense in both the infield and outfield serves him well. Most projections will push his ERA toward 4.00 and keep his WHIP strong over ~200 innings which feels right. (Paul Sporer)

The Quick Opinion: Porcello’s Cy Young win will artificially inflate his draft day cost without question. He doesn’t have enough strikeouts to offset the incoming ERA regression and without 22 wins or something close it, there’s no chance of him being a top-10 starter by season’s end. Don't overpay.

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