The Game: Baseball
2017 Pre-Season Projections
2017 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
2017 Updated In-Season Projections
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Win Probability & Box Scores
2017 Projected Standings
2016 Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds Graphs
2017 Free Agent Tracker!
Minor League Leaders
Combined WAR Leaderboards
League Average Heatmaps
Team Batting Stats
Team Pitching Stats
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
Team Depth Charts
Positional Depth Charts
K% & BB%
K/9 & BB/9
TZ & TZL
Park Factors by Handedness
Help Support FanGraphs
Become a Member
Already a member?
11/26/1983 (33 y, 2 m, 24 d)
2005 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 25, Overall: 25, Team: Minnesota Twins
$50M / 4 Years (2014 - 2017) + 1 Option Years
Garza (6-8) allowed three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts over six innings to beat the Rangers on Monday. (9/26/2016)
#2xSP: 9.19-9.25 (Updated)
Brandon Warne (RotoGraphs)
MASH Report (4/7/16)
Jeff Zimmerman (RotoGraphs)
Brewers Playing Time Battles: Pitchers
Blake Murphy (RotoGraphs)
Milwaukee's Untimely Collapse
Mike Petriello (FanGraphs)
Going Low and Away with the Brewers
August Fagerstrom (FanGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
Garza finally lived up to his flame-throwing, strikeout-compiling reputation by striking out more than seven batters per nine innings for the first time in his career. His fastest pitch of the season clocked in a little under 98 miles per hour and his slowest just over 70 mph, so to say he can hit you with the hard and soft stuff alike is accurate. Garza’s home-run rate reached career-high levels and kept him from achieving personal bests in FIP and tRA. He broke the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career and had zero issues with injury, unlike 2008 with the whole radial nerve ordeal.
The Year Ahead:
It’s hard to say whether the strikeouts will sustain at such a high rate or not. You would expect them to, given Garza’s pedigree and ceiling, and the most radical improvement has to be Garza’s slider, which became wildly effective in 2009. About 20% of his total sliders resulted in swinging strikes. If that mark carries over in 2010 it will bode quite well for his K rate, but it’s impossible to say for sure. His home-run rate should regress, plus the team around him will be solid… all of which makes him an attractive option for victories, ERA, and strikeouts. Garza also may lead the league in spitballs launched. (R.J. Anderson)
Heading into 2010 Matt Garza appeared to be a good bet. He had just recorded his second straight season with more than 180 innings and an ERA under 4.00, and his strikeout totals jumped from 128 to 189. In 2010 he took something of a step back. His ERA was still a very good 3.91 and his WHIP a quality 1.25, but his strikeout rate dipped to pre-2009 levels. He totaled just 150 while pitching 1.2 more innings than in 2009. It's tough to project Garza as striking out more than seven per nine innings, which would give him around 155 for a 200-inning season. That's not bad, but not elite. Still, with his ERA staying relatively low and him proving durable, he will be a good bet in 2011. A move to the National League from the American League East could really help his overall numbers. (Joe Pawlikowski)
The Quick Opinion:
Matt Garza provided tons of value with the strikeout in 2009, but it appears that he's not going to approach the 200 mark. He has a good ERA and pitches a lot of innings, so he's still a good buy.
Garza posted by far the best season of his MLB career despite getting little help from his teammates in 2011. The 28-year-old's strikeout rate nearly reached one per inning and his ground ball rate was his highest since leaving the Twins in 2007, and as a result Garza posted a career best 3.35 ERA in Chicago. One could even argue he was unlucky – he had a 2.95 FIP and a 3.19 xFIP, but given the homer-friendly nature of Wrigley field and the league-worst defense (by Defensive Efficiency) in Chicago, such a difference between results and peripherals should be expected. Garza is on the trade market, and being shipped out of Chicago should help him garner some wins if it comes to pass. What his new park will do to his peripherals is the open question. (Jack Moore)
The Quick Opinion:
Garza didn't get much help from his defense in 2011, but he posted possibly his best season as a major leaguer. His strikeout spike was unprecedented; can he maintain that level in 2012?
Matt Garza had a breakout season in 2011. But then he posted a 3.91 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 2012, almost identical to his 2009 and 2010 numbers. Add to that: He made only 18 starts while struggling with injuries, and he had some malpractice-level-bad fielding problems. As a 29-year-old pitcher with no full season worse than 99 ERA-, Garza still represents a solid investment for most any fantasy team. But do not let the reputation of his stuff, or his role as the Cubs' "ace," fool you. Garza is useful, but easy to overpay on. Given his injury problems and recent history, 180 innings of a 3.90 ERA seems like a realistic expectation. (
The Quick Opinion:
Garza's reputation may have outpaced his ability. Do not expect much better than 180 innings and a 3.90 ERA (something around 90 ERA-). If you can get him at a moderate price, pull the trigger. Otherwise, gamble elsewhere.
Garza started 32 games in back-to-back seasons for the Rays in 2009 and 2010 while working over 200 innings in both seasons. He has done neither since leaving the bay area for Chicago and then Texas. He has at least one stint on the disabled list each of the past three seasons with elbow and shoulder issues. He does not walk many batters, which allows him to post strong WHIPs, but he has been susceptible to the long ball and thus has had a sub-3.75 ERA just once in the past five seasons. He is not terribly pitch efficient so he does not work deep into games and has won more than ten games just once since 2009. On the plus side, he is split neutral. His velocity has held up well over the past three seasons, despite the physical issues but he is still primarily a fastball/slider pitcher. The slider usage increased after he left Tampa Bay as they took the pitch away from him -- which is their unconfirmed organizational philosophy for their starting pitchers. Skills aren't the issue here; it's his health. There was scuttlebutt at the Winter Meetings at least one team did not like his medicals when evaluating him for a contract. (Jason Collette)
The Quick Opinion:
Skills aren't the issue here; it's his health. There was scuttlebutt at the Winter Meetings at least one team did not like his medicals when evaluating him for a contract.
It has now been three years since Matt Garza teased us with the potential he showed on the Rays and Cubs. Since 2011, Garza has failed to reach 28 starts or 170 innings in a season, and his strikeout rate has declined in step with a declining fastball, which hit a career low of 92.5 mph in 2014. The 2.5 strikeout-to-walk rate that Garza produced in 2014 and can be expected to produce in 2015 is not bad, but it does not make him a top-50 starter, especially when coupled with his recent health problems. He makes the most sense as a streamer option in standard formats; do not expect him to reach 30 starts. (Scott Spratt)
The Quick Opinion:
Garza’s recent health problems seem to finally have caught up with him with a lesser fastball and strikeout rate in 2014. His decent strikeout-to-walk rate makes him a streamer option in standard formats, but his recent health problems limit him to that.
The 2015 season was an unmitigated disaster for Garza, who spent much of the season toiling among the worst starters in either league before the Brewers ultimately sent him home when he refused to shift to the bullpen. The final tally of damage was a 5.63 ERA, 6.3 strikeouts per nine and a FIP of 4.94 -- all career worsts or close to it. Still owed at least $25 million over two years, it appears as though Garza and the Brewers will head into 2016 with an open mind. With that said, a change of scenery would probably be fitting -- for both. (Brandon Warne)
The Quick Opinion:
Garza came unglued in his second season with the Brewers, and with a rough season coming down the tubes for Milwaukee, a change of scenery might be best for both sides. Garza might have some streaming appeal at some time in the 2016 season, but he's hands off for the early going.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Only stats on the same scale can be grouped.
Updated: Sunday, February 19, 2017 3:32 AM ET
Terms of Service
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
FOX Sports Engage Network Partner
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media as distributed by STATS.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.