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5/24/1978 (38 y, 8 m, 27 d)
$0M / 1 Years (2016)
Penny will retire, MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm reports. (3/18/2016)
Jacob Lamb & Brad Penny: Deep League Waiver Wire
Karl de Vries (RotoGraphs)
Free Agent Market: Starting Pitcher
Bradley Woodrum (FanGraphs)
FanGraphs Power Rankings - 10/3/11
Paul Swydan (FanGraphs)
2011 AL Playoff Rotations: Detroit Tigers
Paul Swydan (FanGraphs)
2011 Player Rankings: AL Starting Pitchers
Mike Podhorzer (RotoGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
Penny started 24 games for the Red Sox and then was picked up by the Giants, where he started six more games. The tenure with the two teams was a nice example of the fickleness of BABIP. For the Sox, he had a BABIP of .336, leading to an ERA of 5.61 and only seven wins. For the Giants, that number dropped to .211, his ERA fell to 2.59, and he won four of his six games. His non-fielding-based performance was only slightly better with the Giants – xFIP of 4.19 in San Fran versus 4.68 in Boston; it was just half a run different rather than more than three. Overall, his xFIP of 4.56 was down from his five-year peak from 2002 to 2005 when he never posted an xFIP above 4.15. Compared to that peak, he got fewer strikeouts (just 5.66 K/9) and fewer ground balls (43.7%).
The Year Ahead:
During the off-season Penny was signed by the Cardinals to be their fourth starter. The first thought to jump in every fantasy manager’s mind is that Penny could be another Dave Duncan special in 2010 (think Joel Piniero of 2009). However, that likely relies on Duncan’s ability to teach Penny a dominant sinker and recast him as a ground-ball pitcher. It is best to assume that will not happen. Instead, expect 160 innings with a 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, along with 105 strikeouts and 10 wins. Consider the Duncan-inspired breakout as a remote possibility. Penny’s ratios should be okay, but his low strikeout numbers make him a back-of-the-rotation pitcher at best in deep mixed leagues, and mostly an option solely in NL-only leagues. (Dave Allen)
Super sleeper alert! Whether it’s bad feelings from his flop with the Red Sox or the fact that he spent most of last year on the disabled list, Penny went mostly ignored this winter before Detroit threw $3 million at him to be their #5 starter. For just slightly more than Melvin Mora, the Tigers added a starter who posted a 3.77 xFIP last year while throwing 94 MPH. Sure, there’s injury concerns, but if he can stay healthy, Penny has a chance to be the best non-Verlander starter in that rotation, and he should be near the top of your list of value pitchers to target. Like most pitchers who go to St. Louis and study under Dave Duncan, Penny became an extreme strike-throwing ground ball guy, and Duncan’s fixed pitchers often stay fixed even after they leave. Penny now has the stuff and the skillset to be a high quality starter. His health makes him a risk, but he’s a risk worth taking, and he’ll probably be undervalued in almost every draft. (Dave Cameron)
The Quick Opinion:
Penny is a high-risk, high-reward pitcher, but unlike a lot of other players with significant upside, he shouldn't cost you a mint to put him on your team. You can even afford to be aggressive with his valuation - he'll probably be worth it.
For a guy who has consistently been a valuable player to his Major League team, Penny has rarely held much value for fantasy. Seven times he has had more than 25 starts in a year, his career FIP is 4.08, and he has accumulated 27.7 WAR over his career. But over that time, he has only broken 15 wins twice, cracked 150 strikeouts once, and had a 4.23 ERA and 1.36 WHIP -- not much help in any of the traditional categories. He has created value as a pitcher by putting up league-average numbers (career ERA- of 100) while staying healthy and eating innings for six different teams. His numbers have been down since 2009, and his 2011 season was brutal, but he did throw 181.2 IP and that will likely be enough to earn him a job in 2012. (Chad Young)
The Quick Opinion:
League-average inning eaters (even late in their career, when the results are falling off) will always have Major League teams interested in them. Fantasy teams will have less interest, and Penny will likely not have much fantasy value.
There was a Brad Penny sighting in 2014! We didn’t even write a cap for him in 2013! Like a Phoenix, Penny rose from his own ashes to post... not so good numbers. If the Marlins’ rotation didn't succumb to injuries, he probably wouldn’t have graced a major league mound, but they did, and so he pitched. He didn't pitch well, though, walking too many batters, while not striking out nearly enough to balance the ratio out. Penny doesn't seem likely to make a roster in 2015, and if he does, he isn't going to be on your radar unless you’re in desperate need of a few innings. (Landon Jones)
The Quick Opinion:
According to widely available data, Brad Penny has made nearly $50 million in salary while in the big leagues. Good for him, man. Good for him.
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Updated: Monday, February 20, 2017 11:40 AM ET
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