The Game: Baseball
2017 Pre-Season Projections
2017 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
2017 Updated In-Season Projections
Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
Win Probability & Box Scores
2017 Projected Standings
2016 Playoff Odds
Playoff Odds Graphs
2017 Free Agent Tracker!
Minor League Leaders
Combined WAR Leaderboards
League Average Heatmaps
Team Batting Stats
Team Pitching Stats
Team WAR Totals (RoS)
Team Depth Charts
Positional Depth Charts
K% & BB%
K/9 & BB/9
TZ & TZL
Park Factors by Handedness
Help Support FanGraphs
Become a Member
Already a member?
9/25/1987 (29 y, 5 m)
2008 June Amateur Draft - Round: 3, Pick: 25, Overall: 102, Team: Philadelphia Phillies
$0.2M / 1 Years (2017)
Worley signed a minor league contract with the Nationals on Saturday that includes an invitation to spring training, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports. (1/28/2017)
Evaluating the Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates
Kiley McDaniel (FanGraphs)
Are Swinging Strikes Better Than Called Strikes?
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
Return of the Most Deceptive Pitcher in Baseball
Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs)
The Pirates' Pitching Turnaround
Mike Petriello (FanGraphs)
Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 8.18-8.24
Brandon Warne (RotoGraphs)
(Click Year to Expand /
Like the Phillies really needed a breakout starter, Vance Worley bounced between the minors and majors to amass 130 impressive innings at the big league level, resulting in a 3.01 ERA (3.32 FIP), 8.13 strikeouts per nine and a stingy 0.68 home runs per nine. Worley, 24, achieved his results in a bit of an unconventional way, producing few swinging strikes but generating a high number of punch-outs on the called strike. Over 430 Minor League innings, he produced a 6.9 K/9 so plan on a strikeout rate a little closer to 7.0 in 2012, but there’s not much else in his peripheral statistics that screams fluke. A good bet is Worley has an ERA in the 3.75 range and unless he can improve upon his walk rate, a WHIP above 1.20 -- but pitching for the Phillies should provide double digit wins and he’s deceptive enough to deliver around 150 K’s over 180 innings. (Michael Barr)
The Quick Opinion:
Worley has a bright future, but being so young, he comes with some risk and questions persist about his strikeout ability. If his 2011 is any indication of his true talent level, he’s a very valuable fantasy starter, but expect a degree of regression in 2012.
The 2012 version of Vance Worley is probably closer to what we should expect going forward. The strikeout rate dropped, but still remained acceptable, and the walk rate is fine, but not particularly strong. Despite not having great stuff, Worley didn't give up as many home runs as you might think while pitching in a tiny park. The move to Minnesota should benefit him in two ways. He shouldn't have to fight for playing time, and he will be entering a larger park, which is more suited for his skills. He doesn't have any standout skills -- other than an ability to (so far) outperform his swinging strike rate by garnering called strikes on his front-door cutter/slider -- which means he's not going to have a ton of value in fantasy leagues. But the park improvement could make him a late-round pick or a useful spot starter in a couple of leagues. (
The Quick Opinion:
Worley should benefit from an increased role and a better park. He doesn't have a high upside, but could warrant a late-round pick, and will probably be an effective spot-starter in leagues next season.
Worley drew the opening day nod for the Twins in 2013, and at the end of the day his ERA was 4.50. That's the lowest it would be all season. Nothing went right for Worley in his inaugural season in the American League, which actually came to an end when he was sent to Triple-A after he was battered by the Braves to the tune of eight earned runs in just 3.2 innings in late May. In August, the Twins sent him home from Triple-A Rochester after elbow woes kept him from making a start after July 7. All told, it was a disastrous season and it's hard to tell exactly where it went wrong. Worley threw more fastballs than he ever had before, and his velocity was down for a fourth-straight year. He scrapped the slider completely, and incorporated a split that he threw very infrequently. Pretty much everything he threw got blasted. None of the movement values on his pitches fluctuated greatly from 2012 to 2013, though. Down in Triple-A, Worley still didn't pitch particularly well (3.88, but 1.41 WHIP and just 5.3 strikeouts per nine). It was almost certain that Worley would be worse moving over from the National League, but that injury likely made it worse. Worley won't be promised a rotation spot entering 2014, but he's out of options, and the Twins aren't likely to sell off on a major trade acquisition this quickly. He's not a fantasy consideration, however. (Brandon Warne)
The Quick Opinion:
Worley may still have a decent chance to crack the Twins' rotation as its number five, but you shouldn't be considering him in anything but the deepest AL-only leagues.
Worley enjoyed a very nice bounce back year in Pittsburgh after struggling immensely in his lone season in the American League. Much of Worley's improvements are tied to his command in the strike zone. If he had thrown enough innings to qualify, his 4.8% walk rate would be the 15th-lowest in all of baseball. The decreased walk rate and an uptick in strikeouts put his strikeout-to-walk rate close to that of his breakout rookie season. What Worley did differently this year was rely more on his two-seam fastball and less on his cutter, which led to his lowest xFIP in his career. Worley will enter the year in the Pirates rotation, as they tendered him a contract this offseason, but he will need to perform to stay in the rotation for the long term as he, Jeff Locke, and Charlie Morton are all competing for two rotation spots. If Worley's two-seamer proves to be as effective as it was last season, he is a solid back end starter for fantasy purposes, as he has a reliable defense behind him and should see a fair amount of wins on a team looking to make its third straight postseason. It is tough to bet on another sub-three ERA season, but he could be a decent option late in drafts as his past struggles are likely keeping his draft price down. (Ben Duronio)
The Quick Opinion:
Worley had a comeback season in 2014 with the Pirates after struggling immensely in Minnesota the year prior. His two-seamer is now his go-to pitch and it led to a very impressive season, but his volatility makes him risky to rely on for fantasy purposes.
After another modestly successful season in Pittsburgh, Worley has established himself as a quality swingman. Unfortunately for him, the Orioles claimed him off waivers earlier in the offseason. He'll transition from one of the best pitcher parks to one that is notoriously hitter-friendly. The Pirates needed Worley for only eight starts in 2015. He pitched to a 4.81 ERA with 5.65 strikeouts and 3.14 walks per nine. Those aren't the kind of numbers you want from a regular starter, but it's fine production from a depth guy. He was better when used as a reliever. In 28.2 innings, he had a 2.83 ERA, 6.91 K/9, and 1.88 BB/9. It's not surprising. He's a fastball-slider pitcher with no other offspeed offering (he also threw a curve in past seasons). That's a profile built for relief. (Brad Johnson)
The Quick Opinion:
Worley is a solid swingman, but he'll be leaving pitcher friendly PNC Park behind. He was much better in relief last season. His starting days may be behind him.
If you would like to make a projection for this player, please
Only stats on the same scale can be grouped.
Updated: Saturday, February 25, 2017 3:34 AM ET
Terms of Service
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
FOX Sports Engage Network Partner
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media as distributed by STATS.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.