FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

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  1. I just use the average of all these systems, except for Fangraphs fans because for deep leagues they do not account for players who are close-to or at replacement level.

    Comment by Mike D — February 16, 2011 @ 4:27 pm

  2. Is there anywhere to find the accuracy of each system from previous years?

    Comment by ectomobile — February 16, 2011 @ 4:36 pm

  3. The best you’ll find is the study I linked at the bottom of the article. Tango just did some excellent research: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/testing_the_2007_2010_forecasting_systems_official_results/

    Really, you can’t go wrong with whatever you choose. The most recent incarnation of Oliver is pretty good, especially with young players, and Marcels actually came off looking pretty darn good considering its simplicity.

    Comment by Steve Slowinski — February 16, 2011 @ 4:40 pm

  4. Great article – thanks Steve!

    Comment by ectomobile — February 16, 2011 @ 4:48 pm

  5. Wonderful article Steve! Why isn’t CHONE available anymore? Does Sean charge for it?

    Comment by Justin — February 16, 2011 @ 8:53 pm

  6. Thanks! I’m glad you enjoyed it.

    Sean got snatched up by a team this off-season, so I believe the common assumption is they want him to keep data like that private. CHONE’s not available anywhere, pay or no pay, which makes me very, very sad.

    That said, the other systems are still quite awesome. Marcels is good with established players, and the Oliver system is really the tops with the youngins.

    Comment by Steve Slowinski — February 16, 2011 @ 9:11 pm

  7. What’s the deal with the Rotochamp projections included on the projections page? How does that system stack up?

    Comment by reader — February 17, 2011 @ 7:42 am

  8. Oh geez, I’d forgotten about them. Here’s a link to their full description: http://www.rotochamp.com/Help/ProjectionsFAQ.aspx

    Basically, they don’t give out too many details on how they calculate their projections. All I got from that page was that they take a weighted average of a player’s performance over the past three years, try to adjust minor league stats for players with less than 400 major league PAs, and regress players based on their expected LD, GB, and FB rates.

    Comment by Steve Slowinski — February 17, 2011 @ 7:48 am

  9. So is ZIPS the only one then that takes batted ball (e.g. BAPIP) and DIPS theory into account when projecting?

    Comment by dREaDs Fan — February 17, 2011 @ 1:51 pm

  10. Thanks — doesn’t sound like they’ll add much unique value, but it’s always nice to have more options.

    Comment by reader — February 18, 2011 @ 7:24 am

  11. Shameless self-promotion: See my articles below

    http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.php/comparing-2010-pitcher-forecasts/

    http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.php/comparing-2010-hitter-forecasts-part-1-which-system-is-the-best/

    http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.php/comparing-2010-hitter-forecasts-part-2-creating-better-forecasts/

    Comment by Will Larson — February 23, 2011 @ 4:11 pm

  12. Awesome!

    Comment by domki na mazurach — February 24, 2011 @ 2:11 pm

  13. Great article! Just one thing, in the Marcel section you accidentally wrote Tom Tiger instead of Tom Tango. Other than that, great job!

    Comment by Ben — June 4, 2011 @ 8:03 am

  14. http://kratki-proven.pl/

    Comment by KOrdian — February 2, 2014 @ 11:18 am

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