I thought the comments in the first post would have made you understand by now that you southerners just can’t understand the Orioles. Try solving Mississippi’s problems, like New Orleans, before trying to tell me how to feel about the Orioles.

Comment by Illinois glass M. Michael Sheets — September 6, 2012 @ 1:53 pm

Well said.

Comment by GiveEmTheBird — September 6, 2012 @ 3:02 pm

Baltimore should have to vacate the wins they should not have won.

Now I’m no fancy mathematician, but that’s a trend. R-squared is .69, which means we can explain 69% of the WTSNHW using the year. By my calculations, the Orioles’ WTSNHW will be a robust 31.9 by 2025. By about 2070, the Orioles will need only field a replacement level team to win every game. Simple statistics, folks.

Comment by Boss Sauce — September 6, 2012 @ 6:40 pm

What you have suggested is something that epidemiologists and others that use statistics swear by – you learn the most by looking at the outliers. You learn about them, about the non-outliers and you learn about how to refine your model.

Comment by John Thacker — September 7, 2012 @ 12:01 am

I think you hit the nail on the head when you point to the Orioles’ “erratic” starting rotation, “capable of giving up a ton of runs one day and throwing a gem the next.”
Indeed, the Orioles have had more “outlier” pitching performances than any other team in the AL. Define an outlier as a game where a team gives up either 2 or fewer runs, or 6 or more runs.
For most teams, the total number of such games is remarkably consistent throughout the league: To date in 2012, AL teams have an average of 84.3 such games, with a very small standard deviation of only 3.6. Almost all AL teams have had between 81 and 87 such games.
The Twins have had 80, barely outside the standard deviation. The Indians have had 90, a standard deviation and a half above the average.
But the Orioles have had a whopping 93 such games, *two and a half* standard deviations above the AL average! Their 48 games giving up 6+ runs have made their overall stats look very poor, but their 45 games giving up 0-2 runs have boosted their actual W-L record quite a lot.

Comment by rokirovka — September 7, 2012 @ 12:21 pm

Comment by Mississippi Matt Smith — September 7, 2012 @ 1:06 pm

Great stuff!

Comment by Mississippi Matt Smith — September 7, 2012 @ 1:06 pm

If you use mWAR, you’ll find that wins align perfectly … Of course.

Comment by Phil Castle — September 8, 2012 @ 9:07 pm

I just read a comment by Eric M. Van from last month (under the “Slowly Back Away from the Pythag Expectation” post) which confirms the observation that a team with “erratic” pitching performances will outperform its Pythagorean win expectancy:

“In theory there exists a better Pyth formula which incorporates the standard deviation of RS and RA per game, not just the totals (or per game average). It’s easy to show that a high standard deviation of RS causes you to underperform your Pyth and a high standard deviation of RA causes you to overperform, for the obvious reasons that every extra run you score or allow in a game has less influence on your chances of winning.

“The problem is that the standard deviations are not widely available, so anyone who wants to try to come up with such an improved Pyth has to do a ton of preparatory work. I’d love to see the standard historical team records include RS/27 outs and RA/27 outs (rather than per game, which removes the sometimes significant noise of having played one or more marathon games) and the standard deviations of both (you normalize every game to 27 outs to get the SD).”

So you *can* explain the Orioles with this website after all! :-)

Comment by rokirovka — September 9, 2012 @ 10:23 am

And to confirm Eric Van’s point that high variation in RS per game has the opposite effect as high variation in RA per game, it turns out the 2012 Orioles have only 80 games with 0-2 or 6+ runs *scored*, on the low side, to go along with their whopping, now 94 games with 0-2 or 6+ runs allowed. Per Eric Van’s point, that combination of erratic pitching and consistent offense is precisely what we should expect to cause a team to significantly outperform its Pythagorean win expectancy.

Comment by rokirovka — September 9, 2012 @ 10:37 am

Jim Palmer approves

Comment by Josh M — September 6, 2012 @ 12:51 pm

I thought the comments in the first post would have made you understand by now that you southerners just can’t understand the Orioles. Try solving Mississippi’s problems, like New Orleans, before trying to tell me how to feel about the Orioles.

Comment by Illinois glass M. Michael Sheets — September 6, 2012 @ 1:53 pm

Well said.

Comment by GiveEmTheBird — September 6, 2012 @ 3:02 pm

Baltimore should have to vacate the wins they should not have won.

Comment by samuelraphael — September 6, 2012 @ 3:31 pm

NL Central division teams really earn their keep… only a paltry 10.6 wins to vacate

Comment by GUI — September 6, 2012 @ 4:51 pm

The Orioles’ WTSNHW since 2004:

2004:-5.3

2005:-2.8

2006:-2.2

2007:-3.7

2008:-1.4

2009:-1.3

2010:3.5

2011:3.1

2012:15.6

Now I’m no fancy mathematician, but that’s a trend. R-squared is .69, which means we can explain 69% of the WTSNHW using the year. By my calculations, the Orioles’ WTSNHW will be a robust 31.9 by 2025. By about 2070, the Orioles will need only field a replacement level team to win every game. Simple statistics, folks.

Comment by Boss Sauce — September 6, 2012 @ 6:40 pm

What you have suggested is something that epidemiologists and others that use statistics swear by – you learn the most by looking at the outliers. You learn about them, about the non-outliers and you learn about how to refine your model.

Comment by MikeS — September 6, 2012 @ 6:55 pm

But, really, where can I get free software to make a photomosaic?

Comment by Greg W — September 6, 2012 @ 11:54 pm

Clearly Buck Showalter just Knows How To Win.

Comment by John Thacker — September 7, 2012 @ 12:01 am

I think you hit the nail on the head when you point to the Orioles’ “erratic” starting rotation, “capable of giving up a ton of runs one day and throwing a gem the next.”

Indeed, the Orioles have had more “outlier” pitching performances than any other team in the AL. Define an outlier as a game where a team gives up either 2 or fewer runs, or 6 or more runs.

For most teams, the total number of such games is remarkably consistent throughout the league: To date in 2012, AL teams have an average of 84.3 such games, with a very small standard deviation of only 3.6. Almost all AL teams have had between 81 and 87 such games.

The Twins have had 80, barely outside the standard deviation. The Indians have had 90, a standard deviation and a half above the average.

But the Orioles have had a whopping 93 such games, *two and a half* standard deviations above the AL average! Their 48 games giving up 6+ runs have made their overall stats look very poor, but their 45 games giving up 0-2 runs have boosted their actual W-L record quite a lot.

Comment by rokirovka — September 7, 2012 @ 12:21 pm

Got mine here: http://www.andreaplanet.com/andreamosaic/

Comment by Mississippi Matt Smith — September 7, 2012 @ 1:06 pm

Great stuff!

Comment by Mississippi Matt Smith — September 7, 2012 @ 1:06 pm

If you use mWAR, you’ll find that wins align perfectly … Of course.

Comment by Phil Castle — September 8, 2012 @ 9:07 pm

I just read a comment by Eric M. Van from last month (under the “Slowly Back Away from the Pythag Expectation” post) which confirms the observation that a team with “erratic” pitching performances will outperform its Pythagorean win expectancy:

“In theory there exists a better Pyth formula which incorporates the standard deviation of RS and RA per game, not just the totals (or per game average). It’s easy to show that a high standard deviation of RS causes you to underperform your Pyth and a high standard deviation of RA causes you to overperform, for the obvious reasons that every extra run you score or allow in a game has less influence on your chances of winning.

“The problem is that the standard deviations are not widely available, so anyone who wants to try to come up with such an improved Pyth has to do a ton of preparatory work. I’d love to see the standard historical team records include RS/27 outs and RA/27 outs (rather than per game, which removes the sometimes significant noise of having played one or more marathon games) and the standard deviations of both (you normalize every game to 27 outs to get the SD).”

So you *can* explain the Orioles with this website after all! :-)

Comment by rokirovka — September 9, 2012 @ 10:23 am

And to confirm Eric Van’s point that high variation in RS per game has the opposite effect as high variation in RA per game, it turns out the 2012 Orioles have only 80 games with 0-2 or 6+ runs *scored*, on the low side, to go along with their whopping, now 94 games with 0-2 or 6+ runs allowed. Per Eric Van’s point, that combination of erratic pitching and consistent offense is precisely what we should expect to cause a team to significantly outperform its Pythagorean win expectancy.

Comment by rokirovka — September 9, 2012 @ 10:37 am