“In theory there exists a better Pyth formula which incorporates the standard deviation of RS and RA per game, not just the totals (or per game average). It’s easy to show that a high standard deviation of RS causes you to underperform your Pyth and a high standard deviation of RA causes you to overperform, for the obvious reasons that every extra run you score or allow in a game has less influence on your chances of winning.

“The problem is that the standard deviations are not widely available, so anyone who wants to try to come up with such an improved Pyth has to do a ton of preparatory work. I’d love to see the standard historical team records include RS/27 outs and RA/27 outs (rather than per game, which removes the sometimes significant noise of having played one or more marathon games) and the standard deviations of both (you normalize every game to 27 outs to get the SD).”

So you *can* explain the Orioles with this website after all! :-)

]]>Indeed, the Orioles have had more “outlier” pitching performances than any other team in the AL. Define an outlier as a game where a team gives up either 2 or fewer runs, or 6 or more runs.

For most teams, the total number of such games is remarkably consistent throughout the league: To date in 2012, AL teams have an average of 84.3 such games, with a very small standard deviation of only 3.6. Almost all AL teams have had between 81 and 87 such games.

The Twins have had 80, barely outside the standard deviation. The Indians have had 90, a standard deviation and a half above the average.

But the Orioles have had a whopping 93 such games, *two and a half* standard deviations above the AL average! Their 48 games giving up 6+ runs have made their overall stats look very poor, but their 45 games giving up 0-2 runs have boosted their actual W-L record quite a lot. ]]>

2004:-5.3

2005:-2.8

2006:-2.2

2007:-3.7

2008:-1.4

2009:-1.3

2010:3.5

2011:3.1

2012:15.6

Now I’m no fancy mathematician, but that’s a trend. R-squared is .69, which means we can explain 69% of the WTSNHW using the year. By my calculations, the Orioles’ WTSNHW will be a robust 31.9 by 2025. By about 2070, the Orioles will need only field a replacement level team to win every game. Simple statistics, folks.

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