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3/1/1988 (28 y, 11 m, 26 d)
2006 June Amateur Draft - Round: 2, Pick: 22, Overall: 66, Team: Oakland Athletics
$1.8M / 1 Years (2017)
Cahill will compete for a rotation spot this spring, but the Padres are open to using him as a reliever as well, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. (2/21/2017)
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(Click Year to Expand /
Year in Review:
Trevor Cahill had made all of six starts at Double-A entering the 2009 season. He finished the year with 32 starts at the Major League level. That alone would seem to qualify the year as a success. In reality, he has a long ways yet to go, and really showed his rawness. Clearly, 90 strikeouts to 72 walks is not a good ratio. He does have some moderate ground-balling skills, but as a righty throwing a below-90 mph fastball nearly 70% of the time, he is going to need vastly improve either his downward movement on it or his command to escape his current level.
The Year Ahead:
Cahill is going to be dependent on his defense due to his low strikeout numbers. That makes him a highly variable pitcher and, as such, a big risk in wins, ERA and WHIP. He's not going to get you saves and we already covered his lackluster strikeouts, so in the traditional five categories, Cahill is not a good investment for a fantasy leaguer. Unless you know Oakland is going to be running out a fantastic defense to keep hits away, and thus improve his chances for low ERAs and WHIPs, and enough of an offense to generate runs on the other side of the ledger to grant him wins, just stay away. (Matthew Carruth)
The best 2010 ERA by a qualified starter in the American League with a strikeout rate lower than six-per-nine was Trevor Cahill, at 2.97. Second on that list was teammate Dallas Braden (at 3.50), so asking if the park gave the two mid-rotation mates front-of-the-rotation superficial stats makes sense. The park did suppress offense (here, wOBA) by five percent for left-handed batters and seven percent for right-handed batters. The thing that Cahill has over his teammate, though, is an elite skill. Cahill's 56% ground-ball rate was third in the AL among qualified starters, and he's always been a sinker-baller, so it's probably a repeatable skill. And while he didn't strike out many (5.4 K/9), he did strike out over eight per nine in his final two minor league stops and has some upside there. Cahill could easily improve his underlying skills -- strike more batters out and even improve the ground-ball percentage -- but put up a season that looks worse in terms of wins and ERA. (Eno Sarris)
The Quick Opinion:
Cahill is an exciting young ground-ball pitcher with enough upside to suggest he will improve his true-talent work in the upcoming season. Just remember that his true-talent level last year was much closer to league average than his 18 wins and 2.97 ERA seemed to suggest.
Cahill continued to increase his strikeout numbers in 2011, recording a career high 6.4 per nine innings, but that spike was accompanied by similar increase in walk rate back to the 3.6 per nine innings of his rookie season. He's survived despite mediocre strikeout-to-walk ratios due to a high ground-ball rate, and he'll need to keep that up in Arizona. His ERA finally matched up with his FIP last year in the 4.10-4.20 range; if he sees a spike in home runs, he could be a well below average pitcher. However, he's only 24, and there is more than enough room to grow into a solid mid-rotation starter as well. (Jack Moore)
The Quick Opinion:
The Athletics cashed Cahill in for prospects over the offseason, making him the newest piece of a promising young rotation in Arizona. Can he thrive out of the protective Oakland Coliseum?
Things are trending in the right direction for Trevor Cahill as he enters his fifth season. His strikeout rate increased for the fourth straight season, his FIP and home run rate decreased for the fourth straight season, and he set career highs in strikeouts per nine and ground ball rate. The kicker: he doesn't turn 25 until spring training. Cahill knocked his ERA down to 3.78 to go with the improved strikeout totals. He should supply 200 innings of solid pitching with upside -- a mid-tier starter worth betting on. (Jack Moore)
The Quick Opinion:
Cahill has youth and recent growth on his side as he heads into 2013. He's a ground-ball machine with improved strikeout ability, and a good bet in the mid-to-late rounds at just 25 years old.
Cahill improved in a lot of ways in 2012, but was unable to improve further or even maintain those gains in 2013. In 2012, he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career by getting more swings on pitches outside of the zone and, relatedly, more swings and misses. And he also went from having an elite ground ball rate to having the best ground ball rate in the league (61.2%) by three percentage points. A big reason for the improvements in 2012 was the addition of a cutter to his pitch mix. That pitch generated ground balls and got swings and misses at rates better than most of his other pitches. When you consider that Cahill used the cutter even more in 2013, his regression is a bit surprising. But the cutter simply wasn't as effective. His swing and miss and ground-ball rates declined noticeably on his cutter last year. There's always a chance the cutter regains its effectiveness or that Cahill makes another adjustment, but absent the absurd luck on balls in play he got in 2010, his upside is nothing more than something like a 3.80 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP, 12-13 wins and an average strikeout rate. That's the best case scenario. That projection looks a lot like the line Dillon Gee from last year, and he was a borderline top 60 fantasy starters. So best case scenario, Cahill is one of the last guys on your staff. But more likely he's just a spot starter. (
The Quick Opinion:
All the progress made by Cahill in 2012 disappeared in 2013. The cutter that fueled his 2012 improvements was less effective, and his skills regressed. But even if his cutter regains effectiveness or he makes some other adjustment, Cahill's upside is limited to that of a borderline top 60 fantasy starter.
Cahill's 2014 was a mixture of good and bad. The soft-tossing righty allowed plenty of runs with a 5.61 ERA, but his 3.89 FIP and 3.83 xFIP point to better times ahead. Left-handed hitters went wild with a .404 weighted on base average against him. A .350 batting average on balls in play, well above his career average, contributed to the pain. He was substantially better out of the bullpen with a 3.04 ERA and 2.92 FIP in 23.2 innings. The lone bright spot is a healthy 10.1% swinging strike rate, which translated to 8.54 strikeouts per nine. Unfortunately, the good was offset by 4.47 walks per nine. With $12 million owed to him in 2015, the Diamondbacks are looking at an expensive swingman. (Brad Johnson)
The Quick Opinion:
Cahill will need to learn how to neutralize left-handed hitters if he wants to help out of the rotation. Otherwise, he's a very well paid long reliever.
A move to the bullpen did Cahill well. His velocity increased by about two miles per hour and his simplified repertoire allowed him to pick up strikeouts at a rate he never reached while starting. Even though he hasn’t been able to bring his ERA under five for the past two seasons, his skills seemingly suggest there’s room be effective for the Cubs in 2016. His ground ball rate was 10th in baseball last season. He posted a career-best 3.50 xFIP, nearly two runs lower than his 5.40 ERA. There are definitely flaws here, as the recent ERAs show. While can get grounders at an elite rate, batters made more hard contact against him than any other pitcher among the top 20 in ground ball rate. Ultimately, Cahill leaves the same impression he’s left fantasy owners with since he debuted six seasons ago: talented, but rarely able to put things all together. Teams have mostly used Cahill out of the bullpen the past two seasons, but the Cubs do plan on stretching him out as a fallback option if rotation needs arise. If he is transitioned to starting role, he’s worth consideration in deeper NL-only leagues based on his ground ball ability in front of a solid defense. (Adam McFadden)
The Quick Opinion:
As a reliever, Cahill shouldn’t move the needle in fantasy leagues. If he finds himself in the starting rotation, he’ll be worth watching in case he finally puts the pieces together.
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Updated: Monday, February 27, 2017 3:32 AM ET
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