- Moving On Without Robinson Cano
of pitcher the Yankees lack.
Without Robinson Cano, the Yankees ought to be just fine, at least relative to what they'd be with him. They'll miss him, but really, what they'll miss is short-term Cano
- Starting Pitching Qualified Relievers, Take Advantage of a Starting Pitcher's Day Off
On the days that not all of your starting pitchers (SP) are not pitching, the SP qualified reliever can be inserted and be used to rack up some strikeouts, lower rate stats and pickup a win or save
- Starting Pitcher Qualified Relievers
Relief pitchers who have starting pitcher qualifications are a valuable resource in leagues who have both starting pitcher (SP) and relief pitcher (RP) slots and daily moves. If a team can't use all
- 2012 Starting Pitcher DL Projections
starting pitchers to end up on the disabled list in 2012.
Last year, I determined a formula to get the percentage chance a pitcher will end up on the DL. Historically, any starter that pitched 120
- 2015 Starting Pitcher DL Projections
hitters can lose an entire season because of injury, it is just a fraction compared to pitchers who have to sit out. To help understand each pitcher's injury risk, I will release my 2015 starting
- Starting Pitcher Ranks (9/28 to 10/4)
Well, sorry for no analysis with this final week of starting pitcher values. Eno and I are traveling and I waited as long as I could to try to get this week's starters. I implemented the changes
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/17/13
Jeff Sullivan: 30 Rock
Comment From Guest
See that NYT article on pitcher "speed limits"? Seems like humans have topped out
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/4/14
Comment From Mike
Jeff - which, in your opinion is the more useless stat, pitcher wins or ice hockey goalie wins?
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/17/14
arrangements to get Taijuan Walker from Tacoma up to Seattle?
Jeff Sullivan: They're going to do that just as soon as they feel comfortable. God knows they hate starting Erasmo
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/9/13
, I believe in. Dickey is probably getting worse
Comment From Kate
And I was all ready for a chat starting now, not in a few minutes.
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/7/14
Jeff Sullivan: well I mean Ubaldo is the better starting pitcher
Comment From J6takish
Inflated OBP from batting 8th in front of the pitcher
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/26/15
that's an overstatement, but the Nats are starting to resemble the Nats, as intended.
Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry
Jeff! Is a hot dog a sandwich? Is a taco a sandwich
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/13/15
Jeff Sullivan: Good and healthy starting pitcher for a playoff club
Comment From Logan Davis
Which player with the last name
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/16/15
Comment From Awake in Seattle
Who do you think ends up starting at SS for the Mariners? Who would you start?
Jeff Sullivan: I'd start Miller, and while I don't
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/20/14
Jeff Sullivan: I don't think Duffy's put it together, and I don't think he's going to put it together, but he could be a tweak or two away from being a No. 2 starting pitcher
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/2/13
Jeff Sullivan: With the Nationals anyone and everyone can seem like a fit, no matter the price. I think the holdup right now is that the Nationals most need a starting pitcher and that market
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/4/14
something impactful on the way
Comment From a preseasoner
which high risk high reward starting pitcher should the Ms sign?
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/29/15
surprised me so far.
Jeff Sullivan: Could really use another starting pitcher, but they're good enough to hang in that division
Comment From Sean
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/3/13
: Not exactly -- the gap is smaller and now we have the "benefit" of precedent. And now we don't get the Robinson Cano WAR interloper
Jeff Sullivan: I didn't realize the extent
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/11/14
Comment From Jack
If the Jays acquire a starting pitcher does that eliminate Stroman's chances?
Jeff Sullivan: Only really out of spring training
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/16/14
of the Angels using an army of relievers in the 5th starting pitcher spot?
Jeff Sullivan: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the...
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/15/13
Jeff Sullivan: I am in favor of the idea of a preferred shutdown reliever
Comment From Erik
Is Detroit's starting pitching that good or were
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/22/15
of sleeping through alarms but these were unusual circumstances!
Comment From alex
What's wrong with Robinson Cano?
Jeff Sullivan: Here's what we
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/5/15
It's starting to look like Hanley Ramirez may be a disaster in Boston.
Jeff Sullivan: I'm unconvinced he's back close to 100% -- I checked yesterday, and since his
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/17/15
and starting next Tuesday. What are the chances a pitcher throws a no-hitter in his 1st major league start? What should I get on my free Dominos pizza when he does?
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/12/15
in 10 words or less.....
Jeff Sullivan: Well, I'll give you two different answers
Jeff Sullivan: 1) Have Robinson Cano hit like Robinson Cano
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/29/14
a high Tier 2 pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan: The velocity looks like it might be starting to come back, but it's still down and so are the strikeouts so I'm not loving him
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/30/13
expect Brandon Beachy to be an above-average starting pitcher this season?
Jeff Sullivan: By a little bit
Comment From The Boss
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/3/15
be okay with it. I'm also fairly fond of Travis, though
Comment From Alex
Who will be the Mets best starting pitcher this season?
- Robinson Cano at the Heart of Two Matters
Robinson Cano, and two separate things involving him. The first that we'll tackle happened in the top of the eighth. The setting: the Tigers are ahead 1-0, with a runner on first and two out. Austin
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/25/14
but the same probably isnt true for their starting pitching.
Jeff Sullivan: When the offseason is over, the Red Sox will have added a good starting pitcher or two
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/22/14
Comment From RotoLando
Who the heck is this Tom Koehler guy?
Jeff Sullivan: A starting pitcher who isn't very good! But he gets it up to 95 so you can never
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/27/14
Comment From Jays fan
Could the Jays trade Rasmus for a pitcher? If so, should they?
Jeff Sullivan: They could, but then they just wouldn't have a center fielder
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/3/15
Comment From dom
so is Gausman going to be a good starting pitcher or what
Jeff Sullivan: I think he becomes pretty good, but I
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/21/14
Comment From Terrible Ted
Pitcher/batter match-up you are most looking forward to in the WS?
Jeff Sullivan: None specifically, but I'm looking forward to all the Herrera
- MASH (12/9/2013) - Starting Pitcher DL Chances
Besides the 2014 starting pitcher disabled list (DL) predictions, have a few notes on some players.
• A few weeks ago I re-examined my 2013 starting pitcher DL predictions. The results were dead
- Starting Pitcher DL Projections (Part 2 of 2)
Yesterday, I went through the formula used for predicting which starting pitchers have the greatest chances of going on the DL in a given year. Now here are the projections for 2011. Besides
- Starting Pitcher DL Projections (Part 1)
at the chances of a starting pitcher going on the DL and will look at projected time lost later.
The main problem with projecting the chances of going on the DL is what pool of players to look
- Starting Pitcher Disabled List Analysis (1 of 3)
This is the first in what will be a series on the disabled list. Here’s a link to the data.
I recently posted a projection formula (here and here) that estimated the chance of a starting pitcher
- How Shelby Miller Resembles the Model Starting Pitcher
watched him every five days that I really "got" it. Lee was perfect. He wasn't and isn't the best starting pitcher in the world, but he's close, and he does everything perfectly, just like you'd want
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/7/13
in short: I wouldn't worry right now.9:26Comment From JaackFun Barry Bonds fact of the day: Barry Bonds ranks sixth among all players in Fangraphs fielding runs, after only Brooks Robinson, Andruw Jones
- Starting Pitcher Disabled List Analysis (2 of 3)
often refer to a player’s build when they talk about injury chances. Using height and weight information available from baseball-databank.org, I divided up the each pitcher's BMI. Here are the results
- Starting Pitcher Disabled List Analysis (3 of 3)
amount of data, it is too early to draw too many conclusions for starting pitchers. I will be doing further research on relief pitchers and position players to see what trends exist with those players
- Wade Davis, Starting Pitcher
of the starter spot. Some times, the move back to starting from relieving can work out for the pitcher in question. But usually they are just about as good as they were when they started before. Wade
- Identifying the Starting-Pitcher Buyers
, and adding a starting pitcher is often the mode for many organizations. Even teams that have pitching could probably use a little more. To be willing to part with organizational resources, teams need
- MASH Report (11/19/13) - Starting Pitcher DL Projections Reviewed
Today I will check back on my 2013 Starting Pitcher DL Projections. Additionally I have injury updates on several players.
• Before last season, I projected the chances a starting pitcher would go
- How Badly Do the Royals Really Need a Starting Pitcher?
. Like every team, the Royals could stand to be better. Like every team, the Royals could use another one or two arms. Without question, the starting rotation is far from a strength. But as the Royals
- Mixed League Starting Pitcher Rankings
We're splitting the outfielder and starting pitcher rankings into two leagues so that your positional correspondents can handle the workload. But you're in a mixed league and drafting this week. So
- Starting Pitcher Streamers For Thursday 9/25
And we're back to our new regularly scheduled programming of starting pitcher streamer recommendations for games one day in advance. Thankfully, tonight offers a solid slate of options.
- Potential Starting Pitcher K% Decliners
highest is Jeff Samardzija and Anibal Sanchez at just 22%. Anywho, a pitcher is unlikely to post a K% this high without some luck. Sure, his stuff is ridic, but his current mark ranks second among all
- SIERA Overperformers: Starting Pitcher Regressers
Yesterday, I shared which starting pitchers have suffered from the most rotten luck so far this season by comparing their ERAs to their SIERA marks. Naturally, today it's time to look at the opposite
- Updated AL Starting Pitcher Rankings
seasons. So, let's talk about pitching...American League starting pitching of course. Last month's rankings for your enjoyment. Oh, and yes, I did realize I have no fallers in the rankings. Not sure
- Starting Pitcher: Target the Soft Schedule
While the Colorado Rockies might not have that many wins, they also might bludgeon the opposing pitcher in the process of losing, which is why you might want to set your sights on pitchers
- Free Agent Market: Starting Pitcher
important 1 game is.
For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market
- Early Starting Pitcher ADP Thoughts
value than in leagues where you can take some more chances and, if you fail, you can always trade for help.
NFBC Top 50 Starting Pitcher ADP
- Wade Davis: Starting to Relieving to Starting Again
solid starting pitcher down the road, too."
As a starter, between 2009-2011, Davis allowed a .330 wOBA. As a reliever, in 2012, Davis allowed a .254 wOBA. Opponents didn't break a .200 batting
- AL Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes
We're only a week and a half into the season and therefore no American League starting pitchers have started more than two games. With such a tiny sample size to work with, there simply isn't enough
- Rotographs Midseason Rankings – Starting Pitcher
We made it to the mound. After touring the diamond for the position players, we finally reach the starting pitchers for our midseason rankings. I'm not sure any rankings are more disparate than
- Updated AL Starting Pitcher Rankings
After nearly a month in the books, it is time to update the AL starting pitcher rankings. As a fantasy baseball projectionist and owner, I am not much of a tinkerer and it takes a lot to change my
- AL Starting Pitcher Rankings Update
Wow, more than two months into the season and pitchers are clearly giving the finger to those who labeled 2010 the Year of the Pitcher. "You thought last year was the Year of the Pitcher? Wait until
- Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes Update
at a hidden injury and 2) according to this research, every increase or decrease of one mile per hour for a starting pitcher's average fastball velocity equates to a change of about 0.25 runs allowed per nine
- The Change: Eno's Starting Pitcher Rankings
The easiest way to tell you who I like is to actually tell you how I like every pitcher, I guess. So, by popular demand, here are my starting pitcher rankings. With a few toys that could be useful
- NL Starting Pitcher Tiered Rankings
kill his fantasy value. Ted Lilly could easily be a tier above this one, but his starting the season on the DL made me err on the side of caution.
- Starting Pitcher Ranks: RotoGraphs Consensus
- RotoGraphs Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitcher
The pitcher rankings! My favorite. There are just so many of them, and so many different ways to project and predict. Do you focus on injuries and their likelihood? Do you focus on performance
- NL Starting Pitcher Tiered Rankings
, which has to give hope to any pitcher going through capsule rehab right now. I still believe in Kershaw and Halladay, but Kershaw hasn’t been anywhere as good as he was last year and I’m skeptical
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/22/13
a chance against the Sox.
Jeff Sullivan: Joe Kelly is a perfectly adequate starting pitcher who should not be left out there for very long
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/2/13
Jeff Sullivan: If you mean Erasmo this year, maybe lean Martinez just because of Erasmo's elbow injury
Comment From JonnyD
Lackey a better then average pitcher again
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/25/14
Hi Jeff. Happy Tuesday! Thoughts on Tanner Scheppers as a starting pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan: Overrated by our projection systems who don't know how to adjust
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/31/13
cheap free agent starting pitcher still available?
Jeff Sullivan: Capuano
Comment From Eddie
Best value for a player (in terms of salary
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/24/15
a starting pitcher and could select your arsenal, which 3 or 4 pitches would you go with?
Jeff Sullivan: I'm going to leave out knuckleball because it's cheating
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/29/13
Kubel be a starting calibur DH? What is a realistic stat line?
Jeff Sullivan: He is not good
Comment From Schmiggy
Lincecum deal a portent
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/18/13
Jeff Sullivan: Hi guys!
Comment From lowercase jeff
are you a kluber believer?
Jeff Sullivan: As a good pitcher
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/13/13
Comment From Buddy
Probability the Mariners have 3 new starting outfielders to begin next season--
Jeff Sullivan: High
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/8/13
of articles about pitcher pace in yesterday's sox/rays game?
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing new to say, really, and there were far more important and compelling things to write about
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/25/13
in a year with so many questions
Jeff Sullivan: The Giants need more starting pitcher depth in the system, not less
Comment From Nick
What is up
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/10/15
Jeff Sullivan: Least favorite pitcher is easy, that's Francisco Rodriguez. John Paschal wrote about this:
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/24/13
Comment From Tribe guy
Please rank Cleveland's starting rotation from best pitcher to worst.
Jeff Sullivan: Kluber, Salazar, Masterson
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/17/13
Comment From Kris
It's weird how bad the Yankees are actually going to need ARod this year...
Jeff Sullivan: And yet, Ellsbury + McCann. Add a starting pitcher and somehow
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/10/14
they're not winning games starting Willie Bloomquist at first base
Jeff Sullivan: I'm as excited as you are, but let's not pretend like this team is making a whole lot
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/18/14
Jeff Sullivan: Consider your last noun
Comment From Jim O
Seems like the dainty handling of starting pitchers for innings and pitches has not led
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/9/14
Jeff Sullivan: They can't really trade Votto for anything, not with his contract and issues. Instead they're going to trade one or two starting pitchers, and people will see that as a rebuild
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/6/13
Jeff Sullivan: Good heavens, I think we're starting on time.
Jeff Sullivan: I better publicize that this is live now.
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/28/14
, it's still reasonably low but going up with every day that Franklin doesn't get dealt. I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved for a starting pitcher, but we're running out of time
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/25/14
or traded for Lagares and a pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan: Lagares and a pitcher would be wonderful. I'll also take just a pitcher. There's some sense in hanging on to Franklin
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/13/15
talk about how much value a team should get back in a trade for prospects, where do you get this info?
Jeff Sullivan: Public prospect valuations are my starting point. From
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/13/14
him or is he going to avoid surgery?
Jeff Sullivan: If he were a pitcher, he'd probably be screwed. But that's my frame of reference and I know less about how position
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/10/13
from the "max budget" and they still need starting pitching. Are they fooling anyone?
Jeff Sullivan: Clearly, they're fooling lots of writers
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/15/14
Jeff Sullivan: it's almost too obvious
Jeff Sullivan: I'd trade for Byrd, I'd try to trade for a starting pitcher, and then I'd stay internal for whatever else
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/20/13
Can we agree Zimmerman was pitching over his head a bit early on?
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, he is not a 2.00-ERA kind of starting pitcher
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/24/15
on the Zobrist list
Jeff Sullivan: I don't think they badly need a starting pitcher, but if they find that market to be more favorable, then perhaps they'll try to reduce the runs
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/11/14
get reversed in mid-April
Jeff Sullivan: But I do think it's incredible that the Dodgers are going to be starting Dee Gordon at second base
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/18/15
guess is the magic innings limit, knowing that we cant know for sure?
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty obviously depends on the pitcher. Betances demonstrated a year ago he can
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/12/13
A influence in his numbers, so Pitcher Y would be the one to watch.
Jeff Sullivan: But players will affect different players in different ways so, ultimately, good luck, researchers
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/7/15
, there's a lot of good young players in baseball
Comment From jocephus
can grichuk be a quality starting CF'er?
Jeff Sullivan: For the next few years
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/4/14
about an early Tuesday Nick Franklin trade prediction?
Jeff Sullivan: Tampa Bay for a starting pitcher. Rumor has it there was an agreement in place when Hellickson got hurt
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/28/15
two "top ones" - for Tulowitzki. Their defense and bullpen are better, but the rotation is still a mess. What do they do next?
Jeff Sullivan: second-tier starting pitcher
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/15/14
league baseball game as a major league starting pitcher. Useless stats aside, is anything possible?
Jeff Sullivan: And his fastball's still in the low- to mid-90s. How
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/29/14
? A dependable league average infielder, or starter? What kind of boost?
Jeff Sullivan: With Nova gone, I think they'd most benefit from having another decent starting pitcher
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/25/15
Which comment infuriates you more: “This pitcher is great because he has so many wins” or “This hitter is awesome. Look at how many RBIs he has.” ?
Jeff Sullivan: The first
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/8/15
85 on the radar gun? Is there a lower limit that you think all the great pitchers, who weren’t knuckleballers, reached?
Jeff Sullivan: It's worth noting that, for starting
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/27/15
make him better...Is there any actual hope that he is a different pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan: Well, he's a different pitcher because he throws a lot harder than he ever has
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/22/14
Jeff Sullivan: I am extremely skeptical of Sanchez as a big-league starting pitcher, but relative to starting it's pretty damn easy to make a difference in relief
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/10/15
the Orioles need to do to stay in contention?
Jeff Sullivan: A second-tier starting pitcher would be nice. And it's probably about what should be expected
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/14/13
probably be Miller. It should almost never be Andino
Comment From K-nuck
Justin Masterson. Pleaseexplain
Jeff Sullivan: Good pitcher again
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/6/14
continue to pitch this effectively? Thanks.
Jeff Sullivan: He's probably a 100-105 FIP- kind of starting pitcher
Jeff Sullivan: Which is better
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/14/14
addition to their starting five
Comment From Mugatu
Doesn't Jeff Baker just make too much sense for the Brewers? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/16/13
Jeff Sullivan: They get a lot of it
Comment From Kate
Should the Rangers go after a RH bat or a starting pitcher?
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/28/13
of success? His K:BB ratio is improving month on month.
Jeff Sullivan: If I recall correctly, no starting pitcher has a lower Zone% right now than Jeff Locke does
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/5/14
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Castillo isn't as good as them?
Comment From taijuan BBer
taijuan walker is a reliable starting pitcher when?
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/19/14
Jeff Sullivan: This time wasn't my fault! This time I couldn't get the Cover It Live website to load!
Jeff Sullivan: Which, actually, could've been my
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/30/14
Jeff Sullivan: I keep starting later and later, minutes at a time, and eventually these'll get going at night
Comment From Guest
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/4/13
, the Astros or Marlins?
Jeff Sullivan: Marlins by a year
Comment From Ben
Have there been any studies on pitcher performance after they have
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/19/15
Jeff Sullivan: If they went big, you're talking about a really good starting pitcher. But such a pitcher would be unnecessary, and, yeah, they'll settle for minor upgrades
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/11/13
and Infante for Jepsen and Kendrick?
Jeff Sullivan: Kevin Jepsen has had an arm injury and Rick Porcello has one of baseball's best xFIPs as a starting pitcher
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/23/13
up there with those two. Still two months left for someone to dominate or for someone to collapse/get hurt
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: fifth in NL pitcher WAR right now
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/27/13
impressive numbers at AAA. Any chance he's a decent big league starting pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan: He's done this before. He's been doing this for a while. Don't get your
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/26/14
Jeff Sullivan: His future doesn't hold much, since he's 34 in February, but in the short term, he's a perfectly reasonable big-league starting pitcher. Call
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/28/14
between starting Jay or Bourjos, who would you choose?
Jeff Sullivan: I very conveniently platoon them because I am a fan of them both
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/23/13
In the annual FanGraphs softball championship, who plays Scott Cousins to your Buster Posey impression?
9:34 Jeff Sullivan:
9:34 Comment From MightsMets
Jesus Montero is starting to hit. Has he
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/21/13
of finger injuries on the pitching hand? Will this renew the whole pitcher batting vs DH debate?
Jeff Sullivan: If one were to rank pitching hand injuries by severity, a broken
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/18/14
Jeff Sullivan: Very high, in 2011
Jeff Sullivan: Don't like his chances now with his stuff in decline. He's still a fine starting pitcher but he's left behind the realm
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/30/14
Is Fangraphs looking at replacing FIP with SIERA as the main ingredient to pitcher WAR?
Jeff Sullivan: I don't think we've ever even discussed SIERA in our meetings
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/1/13
Comment From CC
Do you think Washington could use another shutdown pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan: Well, everybody could. They're no different. Haven't loved
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/23/14
Jeff Sullivan: Well, FG provides game odds, based on the specific starters and starting lineups, so that's a thing that exists
Jeff Sullivan: But if you're trying to do
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/2/15
would we have an award for best pitcher but not best player?
Jeff Sullivan: I'd write about this if I weren't basically tired of writing about awards. And I might still
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/2/14
Jeff Sullivan: All right, let's do this
Jeff Sullivan: Made the mistake of starting a twitter conversation right before the scheduled chat time
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/2/14
%? Is it still useful if the other advanced stats don't point towards a solid pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan: Starting point-y, like FIP or xFIP are. Start with the most important thing
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/8/14
injury for a starting pitcher
Comment From Guest
Is Erasmo in the long term somewhere in between the guy he was in his 1st 2 starts?
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/16/14
is so fascinating right now
Comment From Kevin
Should the Royals trade, say, Wade Davis and a prospect or two, for a starting pitcher?
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/12/14
you think Evan Longoria is just having a bad season or starting to decline?
Jeff Sullivan: Both. I think he'll be a really good player again in 2015, but I think he's also
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/8/14
of understanding a pitcher with 11 runs allowed over a dozen starts
Jeff Sullivan: That start is in there to keep us from exploding from the inside
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/3/14
With all things considered (Cost to aquaire, control, impact, likelyhood of extension). Which starting pitcher makes the most sense for Toronto?
Jeff Sullivan: I like
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/23/14
picky about what's available to them.
Comment From Tom
Does Boston need another starting pitcher or are they good?
Jeff Sullivan: I think
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/6/15
Jeff Sullivan: One of the best things ever published http://www.fangraphs.com/no...
Comment From Josh
Are you a Carlos Martinez - Starting Pitcher fan or skeptic
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/7/14
best pitcher, Brett Anderson is the 17th and Jamie Garcis is the 18th. See any problem with this?
Jeff Sullivan: A few!
Comment From Pat
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/21/14
Bigger miracle: Seattle getting a championship, or Sullivan starting on time?
Jeff Sullivan: Seattle has won a championship! Go Sonics! :(
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/1/14
Jeff Sullivan: He pitches to lefties like he's a bullpen specialist, only he's a starting pitcher
Comment From CJ
If Ramos is out a while...you
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/15/15
just discovered that some pitchers were using foreign substances to improve their grip
Jeff Sullivan: It's like one team being penalized because a pitcher or a few
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/9/14
in a decision by a pitcher, let's say Lon Jester?
Jeff Sullivan: No, not really
Comment From _David_
What would be the better value: 4.5 years
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/17/15
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to ordinary late-starting Friday baseball chat
Jeff Sullivan: Late
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/5/13
the Mariners even bother picking up an FA pitcher, or just throw all of the young arms out there and see what happens?
Jeff Sullivan: They should get a guy, and I think
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/14/14
of moves should the Padres prioritize this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan: Add a cheap starting pitcher, try to find a real shortstop, and hope for good enough injury luck to get
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/6/15
Comment From Texas Dolly
Thoughts on Derek Holland?
Jeff Sullivan: Good. Better than he was. Real quality pitcher signed to a sweet deal
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/11/15
Comment From TKDC
How about one rookie hitter of the year and one rookie pitcher of the year?
Jeff Sullivan: I'd be for it, although people
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/10/15
Jeff Sullivan: Good starting pitcher. Not a great one
Comment From sjn0
I want 40 P/PA guy to go up against Rafael Betancourt. Most
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/14/15
Jeff Sullivan: kisses!
Comment From Mike
Marcus Stroman! Last week it was Adam Loewen pitcher extraordinaire, now this. Can we get
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 7/1/14
across the board leaves a heck of a starting pitcher, acquired for a dozen starts or so of Scott Feldman
Comment From DisASTROS
Will there be any fallout between Luhnow
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/11/14
Comment From _David_
Are starting pitchers worth more as free agents because more (all) teams have openings at their position?
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/18/14
Jeff Sullivan: Glacier Peak!
Comment From Mitch
For a starting pitcher, how much of a deterrent is having to hit in the NL? Do you think
- The Week and Year in Pitcher Triples
, so this isn't an ordinary thing. Kershaw is also the greatest starting pitcher on the planet, so it's not really fair for him to have positive offensive WAR. But if Clayton Kershaw were fair, he
- Tuesday Pitcher Streaming Options
) and SIERA (3.72). A 2.6 K/BB rate is decent for a pitcher only owned in 3% of all leagues.
Chris Volstad (home vs HOU) – Starting Volstad is a straight play for Wins. He will put of horrible
- The Sense In Waiting to Trade Jeff Samardzija
sellers. Among the probable sellers, it's unlikely anyone will be offering a better starting pitcher than Jeff Samardzija.
So he could be the biggest-impact pitcher available; he could generate a ton
- A Side Benefit of the Jeff Samardzija Blockbuster
. They also picked up a mid-rotation starting pitcher, while losing a far superior starting pitcher. The Angels made two moves, but they both just added to the bullpen, which is important
- Robinson Tejeda Versus Kyle Davies
, ESPN and Yahoo! each show Kyle Davies as having a starting spot. Davies got the start today but was ineffective. He allowed 6 ER, 7 H and 3 BB (no Ks) in 2.2 IP.
Davies was relieved by Robinson
- Pitcher xBABIP Values
A couple of weeks ago, I released an updated list of hitters and their xBABIP values. After it was released I got a request for the pitcher xBABIP values. The xBABIP values are generated by using
- Robinson Cano: Power Struggles
Generally, everyone expected Robinson Cano home runs, runs batted in and runs scored to be down in 2014 compared to 2013 as he went from the Yankees to the Mariners. The Runs (81 to 77) were about
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/10/13
From Sirras OneLeast favorite pitcher to watch in baseball? Is anybody less watchable than Dice-K? 9:17Jeff Sullivan: It's Dice-K9:18Jeff Sullivan: Dice-K is literally torture. He is genuinely illegal
- Robinson Cano Isn't Just Aging
The Mariners have not gotten the production they were expecting from Robinson Cano so far. I know, bold statement. Surely the Mariners prepared themselves for paying Cano handsomely well into his
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/30/13
chat!9:03Comment From BlueJaysFan1omg help. say something nice. do something helppppp! 9:03Jeff Sullivan: Only a half-game back of the Angels9:03Comment From AAJTWill Jeff be on time
- Platoon Splits: Starting and Relief Pitchers
. For hitters with extreme splits, it may be best to sit them and play someone else if they are up against a certain handed starting pitcher.
The problem with looking at most handedness data
- 2013 Starting Pitching DL Projections.
to predict the chance a player will go on the DL. On average, a starting pitcher who has thrown at least 120 innings the previous season will have a 39% chance of going on the disabled list (DL
- 2013 NL Starting Pitcher Tiers: August
We've officially reached the calm before the storm. With just a month and a half to go, the National League starting pitcher tiers have finally started to settle in. Once September rolls around
- 2013 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: Preseason
OMG, we're a week away from BASEBALL that counts! You've seen the consensus starting pitcher rankings, questioned them and have been eagerly anticipating the tiers for a more detailed breakdown. Your
- Relief Pitcher Disabled List Chances
A few years ago I broke down the disabled list (DL) chances for starting pitchers (39%). I have finally gotten around to making an initial stab at relief pitcher DL values.
The initial problem I
- Starting Pitcher Bust Candidates According to Steamer
we'll do the same with starting pitchers. We'll start with busts today.
Mat Latos, Miami Marlins
Latos is being drafted as the 45th starting pitcher off the board, which is basically just above
- RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitcher
dependent. Second, there are only five starting slots, and if you're the sixth-best starting pitcher on your team, you're outta luck.
That last part is really the reason for the delay
- Batted Ball Outliers: Starting Pitchers
on a yearly basis. Today, I am looking at pitchers whose 2011 batted ball data was outside the normal range of values.
To get the extreme baselines, I took the the top and bottom values for a pitcher
- 2013 NL Starting Pitcher Tiers: July
Tier 1: John Locke (not Jeff, the pitcher. He comes later)
Matt Harvey and Cliff Lee jump into the elite tier
- The Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rate Surge Candidates
denominator. My xK% equation is based on per-pitch metrics, which stabilize much more quickly than anything based on innings. No, I don't know the actual stabilization point, but since a pitcher has thrown
- Relief Pitcher Handedness Platoon Splits
One relief pitcher trait I like to have on hand during draft season is how much of a split has a pitcher displayed over his career against right- and left-handed hitters. Most teams don't want
- Why Is There Even a Pitcher-for-MVP Debate?
, then that team's overall winning percentage would be .549. A position player can make a little impact a lot of the time. A starting pitcher can make a big impact some of the time.
Now, that's just a different
- Starting Pitcher Consensus Ranks for Second Half
pitcher is a buy-low if the price is low enough.
Good luck in the second half!
FanGraphs Consensus Rankings:
- Daily Notes: Introducing a Sixth Detroit Starting Pitcher
Featured Game: Cleveland at Detroit, 13:08 ET
Two Facts Regarding the Detroit Tigers
One fact regarding the Detroit Tigers is that they've used only five starting pitchers over the season's first
- 2013 NL Starting Pitcher Tiers: June
Young starting pitchers continue to make their presence known this year. Since the last NL pitcher rankings, owners have seen Tyler Skaggs, Michael Wacha, Gerrit Cole and, soon, Zack Wheeler reach
- Updated AL Starting Pitcher Rankings - September
rankings, but it is basically strictly looking forward. If you drafted now for the rest of the year, what should the order be? I don't care what a pitcher's current ERA is, to me that's just some
- 2014 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: August
system I use to calculate precise dollar values. These values can then be sorted to rank players, and in this instance, starting pitchers. As a result, my preseason rankings are 100% accurate
- 2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: April
some tiers. Starting pitcher tiers of course. And specifically, American League starting pitchers.
My tier rankings are based on projected value moving forward with no accounting for what
- 2013 NL Starting Pitcher Tiers: May
Boy, how things can change after just one month. Due to the promotion of Tony Cingrani, emergence of Matt Harvey and struggles of Matt Cain, the National League starting pitching landscape has been
- Starting Pitcher Sleeper Candidates According to Steamer
Last week I ran the 2015 Steamer projections for starting pitchers through Zach Sanders' Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify some possible bust
- 2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: August
really care what a pitcher's ERA is at the moment. What I'm really interested in is their peripherals and any changes in pitch mix and/or velocity. And even if their peripherals have changed, you
- 2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: May
adjustments. However, there are some scenarios in which I will reconsider -- a change in fastball velocity, a change in pitch mix, an injury, or perhaps the pitcher's defensive support performing better
- Making a Pitcher Out of Edinson Volquez
in walks, and at the moment Volquez's xFIP- is 96. He isn't an ace again, if he ever was one, but Volquez is showing signs of being useful as a starting pitcher, and he could conceivably continue to make
- National League Starting Pitcher Tiers: June
If you followed the unveiling of our positional rankings updates then you probably have a good idea of how I feel about the NL pitching landscape, but a straight ranking of all starting pitchers
- National League Starting Pitcher Tiers: March
For more on these guys and everyone else in the National League (and American League for that matter), check out the 2015 Starting Pitcher Guide.
- Jeff Zimmerman's 10 Bold Fantasy Predictions
is not used to him yet and may initially struggle against him.
Jeff Francoeur will out produce Wil Myers.
That hurt to type. Myers will be held back from starting the season in the majors because
- What's In a Young Pitcher's Strikeout Decline?
any unusual problems with control. But, he did lose velocity. He did lose strikeouts, with the corresponding increase in contact allowed. Recent history shows that, when a young starting pitcher loses
- Madison Bumgarner: Elite Fastball Pitcher
Not long ago, a prominent national baseball writer declared that Madison Bumgarner is the one pitcher you'd want starting a must-win game for your team in the playoffs. The statement's certainly
- 2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: July
It's essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It's just a result. So I don't really care what a pitcher's ERA is at the moment. What I'm really interested
- 2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: June
to revert to what you had him projected for in the preseason.
For pitchers, it's essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It's just a result. So I don't really care what a pitcher's ERA
- October 27, 2011
! Craig-jor League Baseball.
Craig, a giant. An actual giant, not a San Francisco Giant, is sat on home plate. The pitcher has to stand on Craig's knees because his legs are covering the mound. He
- National League Starting Pitcher Tiers: May
of risk. First off, their spots are far from guaranteed. There will be growing pains for sure. Frias has bounced between starting and relieving, Lorenzen had all of three starts in Triple-A before
- Walking Around Nápoles
mentioned in the audio. First there's a map of my route, starting in the southwest. Every street corner marked on the map has a photo to go with it. There's a couple I forgot to take photos of, so I
- Field of Dreams II: An Abridged Novelization
was tired. He sat on the pitcher's mound and chatted with his father. They didn't really have a huge amount to say to each other, in that way conversations can be a bit stilted when you've not seen
- Going to Puebla to Watch Baseball
the line-ups to the ump, everyone shook hands, the pitcher warmed up, and the home plate umpire turned away from the field and crossed himself, Catholic-style, before the first Diablos hitter came up
- The Daily Grind: Choking, Happ, Ray, Robinson
for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff's full list.
Jeff hasn't posted today's rates. Here's a link to his raw output in case he posts it late. Check
- What Happens When a Pitcher Gains or Loses a Framer?
. In this post, I try to examine something simple: What happens when a pitcher goes from better receiving to worse receiving? What happens when a pitcher goes from worse receiving to better receiving
- Is Robinson Cano Still a Viable Fantasy Option?
You don’t have to dig too deep to find an article on Robinson Cano’s early-season struggles. Everywhere from regional newspapers to ESPN.com, the extremely wealthy 32-year-old’s inability to hit
- Phil Coke, Starting Pitcher?
Last week, we talked about Kyle Farnsworth, and I applauded the Royals for giving him a chance to see what he can do as a starting pitcher. Kansas City isn't the only AL Central team considering
- FG on Fox: Robinson Cano's Missing Power
Life is good for Robinson Cano. He likes his new city, and his new city likes him back. He's secured the contract of a man's wildest dreams, and he's a leading vote-getter for the 2014 All-Star Game
- C.J. Wilson: Starting Pitcher
C.J. Wilson's debut as a starting pitcher against Toronto yesterday could not have gone much better. Wilson threw 7 shutout innings, only allowing 5 hits, while striking out a remarkable 9 batters
- Starting Pitcher GB% Surgers
is basically just three starts. So what this means is that when we see a significant change in a player's batted ball mix, we have to take it seriously. Let's take a look at the starting pitcher's who have
- Starting Pitcher xFIP Underperformers
Let's take an All-Star break look at the top five starting pitchers who are most underperforming their xFIP marks. We are still nowhere close to reaching the number of batters faced for ERA
- The Good and Bad News Regarding Robinson Cano
If you just look selectively at some of the names, it doesn't seem so bad. So far this year, through a little more than a quarter of the season, Robinson Cano has hit about as well as Matt Kemp. He's
- Starting Pitcher Velocity Increasers
Fastball velocity is one of the most important numbers to focus on in a pitcher's statistical toolbox. It has a high correlation with strikeout rate and when we saw an increase in velocity, good
- Kyle Farnsworth, Starting Pitcher?
enigmatic self, with the results never living up to the raw stuff behind them.
Now, the Royals are going to try something a bit different - give him a shot at starting. He'll come to camp
- The Starting Pitcher xBABIP Overperformers
Yesterday, I discussed some of the starting pitchers who have underperformed their xBABIP marks the most. Today, we'll check in on the other side of the coin -- those starters who are significantly
- Starting Pitcher SIERA Overperformers
By simply taking the difference between a starting pitcher's SIERA and ERA, you could quickly identify which guys are likely to be overvalued and undervalued in next year's drafts and auctions. We do
- Starting Pitcher SIERA Underperformers
gets a chance in a starting rotation, especially for a team in a more pitcher friendly home park, I'd be very interested again.
It's just the luck pendulum swinging around as usual, this time
- Starting Pitcher Velocity Decliners
On Saturday, I took an early look at the 10 starting pitchers who have seen their average fastball velocity increase the most. Since velocity tends to gradually increase into the summer, I wanted
- NL Starting Pitcher Ranks
The second -- and last -- regular season edition of the NL Starting Pitcher ranks is here. The top remains largely the same, but the bottom has changed quite a bit. The rankings are for the rest
- Starting Pitcher Velocity Surgers
Every April, we worry about starting pitchers who have been showing diminished velocity. Most of the time it turns out to be nothing, as the pitcher either enjoys a rebound over the remainder
- N.L. Starting Pitcher Ranks
The voices from on high have heard your plea for updated NL pitcher ranks and I shall deliver them to you. The tiers are sorted by how great it would be to have one of these things in your town
- C.J. Wilson: Starting Pitcher?
The Texas Rangers are considering moving reliever C.J. Wilson into their starting rotation, and he has done nothing but impress them this spring. Of course, one shouldn't put undue (i.e., any) weight
- 2014 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Pitchers (#1-#15)
in rotation FIP-, one point out of second. Gone are Jon Garland and Jeff Francis. In is Brett Anderson. Anderson, when healthy, has been one of the more effective starting pitchers in baseball
- Jeff Baker: Starting Second Baseman
them. It certainly appears his defense could benefit a Cubs infield lately riddled with rookie miscues and lumbering veterans.
A starting Jeff Baker likely promises not-so-much offense (think 95ish
- 2012 NL Starting Pitcher Keeper Rankings: Tier Four
, as well as the team’s Trainers. He has been a workhorse for them even in his mid-30s, and doesn’t show signs of slowing down yet.
As Jeff Zimmerman highlighted previously, a good part of Hudson’s
- 2013 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: August Update
command seems to have gone missing. Are the concerns Jeff Zimmerman voiced from his February warning finally manifesting? I don't know if it's an injury or just a rough patch.
Looks like Jered
- Nights of the Pitcher
Last night was about the pitchers. Nearly every game had at least one good starting pitcher performance, and many of them we're not even going to talk about today. Max Scherzer's 11 strikeouts? Nope
- Pitcher wBABIP
base hits in 2011 compared to 2012?
The idea behind using wBABIP is to see if a pitcher gave up an abnormally high number of extra base hits. The the cause of the extra base hits could have been
- Jeff Samardzija Mnemonics
. "A" as in America, where Samardzija was born.
5. "S" as in "starting pitcher." "Amardzija" as in the last 9 letters of Jeff Samardzija's name.
Now you will never forget how to spell Samardzija
- The Beginner's Guide To Pulling A Starting Pitcher
frustrations. Rather, this post provides a summary of some of the basic factors that go into the decision to pull a starting pitcher. If you're new to the game or are just starting to pay attention
- Shopping For A Starting Pitcher? Good Luck.
leaderboard with the starting pitcher most likely to be traded from each of the eight teams above. Here's that leaderboard in table form.
- Contract Crowdsourcing 2011-12: Starting Pitcher
We continue our contract crowdsourcing today with starting pitchers. Bradley "The Body" Woodrum provided a summary of the options available as part of this offseason's class of free-agent starting
- Justin Masterson - Elite Starting Pitcher?
weigh in with relative K rates of 140 and percentile ranks of 95 or higher. Clearly, missing bats is a huge part of being an elite starting pitcher.
A low BB rate doesn't appear to be quite
- Jeff Locke and the Pirates Way
left-handed starting pitcher, from 2013-14. What you're seeing is the highest rate of inside pitches to righties, by a lefty, in all of baseball, save for Clayton Kershaw. A change this drastic isn't
- Jeff Samardzija, In the Name of Efficiency
There are two big stories with Jeff Samardzija right now. One is that he's almost certain to get traded by the Cubs somewhere around the deadline, as a contender looks for a major rotation boost
- Should the Mets Trade for a Starting Pitcher?
There have recently been some murmurs going around the Orange and Blue watercoolers that the Mets are looking for a starting pitcher, with names like Cliff Lee and Kevin Millwood being thrown around
- Starting Pitcher Streamers For Tonight 9/22
I will assume that those who can take advantage of streamer opportunities are those in daily transaction leagues and after reading this article, it will not be too late to pick up a starting pitcher
- New AL Starting Pitcher Faces
Today I'll look at a mix of recent American League starting pitcher call-ups and neglected rookies who have yet to get any real RotoGraphs write-up love. Some of these names may still be available
- NL Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes
On Thursday, I discussed the American League starting pitchers who have experienced the largest changes in their fastball velocity since last season. Although still extremely early, and at a time
- Pod’s Picks: Starting Pitcher
Finally, we get to the starting pitchers, my favorite position. If you thought there was room for disagreement among the outfielders, you ain't seen nothin' yet. The many disagreements of value among
- Lance Lynn: NL Starting Pitcher
WHIP and ERA in a useable range.
While it’s obviously not a piece of good luck to lose the team’s best pitcher, the Cardinals are somewhat fortunate that Carpenter’s injury popped up when it did
- The Last Remaining Top Starting Pitcher
Santana, a top 50 free agent according to many, is still unsigned and, according to MLB Trade Rumors top 50 free agents list, the only starting pitcher unsigned. So what does that mean for Santana
- Zack Greinke: NL Starting Pitcher
in order to get him via trade, should be getting the full value out of him and starting him every time the Brewers give him the ball, because even when he’s not pitching well, he’s still seldom that far
- Early Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes
for comparisons and ranking lists. We all know that velocity has a significant impact on a pitcher's effectiveness and all else equal, the higher the velocity, the better the results. When a pitcher suddenly
- James McDonald: NL Starting Pitcher
Last season, targeting a Pirates starting pitcher on draft day or even on the wire was ill advised for the vast majority of fantasy players. Sure Charlie Morton -- 2.2 WAR, 5.77 K/9, and a 3.83
- More Starting Pitcher Velocity Thoughts
Yesterday I analyzed the ultra small sample size of one outing when discussing four starting pitchers. But that's kinda okay because fastball velocity stabilizes quickly and instantly provides useful
- Jeff Suppan and Poetic Justice
. The fact that Jeff Suppan has already received nine starts is a big reason why the Cardinals are now eight games back. If he's not the worst starting pitcher in the National League, he's close
- SIERA Underperformers: Starting Pitcher Targets
We have come a long way when it comes to evaluating a pitcher's performance. No longer do we look at W/L record, hits allowed and other metrics that are greatly influenced by factors outside
- Edwin Jackson: NL Starting Pitcher
this step toward efficiency isn’t unprecedented.
I like Jackson’s increased strikeout rate and I think he’ll keep it up. I’m not buying him as a 9 K/9 pitcher quite yet, but I’ll be less surprised
- Potential Starting Pitcher K% Surgers
that the regression formula I concluded with is meant to estimate what the pitcher's K% should be given his different strike rates. This is not meant to be predictive. Instead, in smaller sample sizes, it might
- Bud Norris: NL Starting Pitcher
may have a shot at him. He’s available in 36 percent of leagues, and he’s probably as consistent as any pitcher available, especially if strikeouts are an area of need. His wins may ebb a little bit
- Wade Miley: NL Starting Pitcher
stuff and a hanger isn’t going to be nearly so obvious as when a pitcher like Johan Santana, who has been burying changeups in the dirt all game, suddenly leaves on belt high.
Miley doesn’t walk
- On Jeff Samardzija and Trade Value
that the A's didn't get enough in return. After all, the same pitcher cost them Addison Russell in July, and Marcus Semien is no Addison Russell. But while Jeff Samardzija himself hasn't changed
- Intent and Jeff Karstens
A common adage is that a pitcher needs either good stuff or location to make it in the major leagues. Jeff Karstens is not someone with good stuff. On the best of days his fastball can average
- Jeff Weaver May Return
into the mix. One recently signed pitcher who will not compete for the fifth spot in Spring Training is Jeff Weaver.
Weaver inked a $500,000 minor league deal this week with an invitation to Spring
- Substitute Teacher, or Twins Starting Pitcher?
- Chris Capuano: NL Starting Pitcher
- Adam Wainwright: NL Starting Pitcher
- Travis Wood: NL Starting Pitcher
- Starting Pitcher Streamers For Friday 9/26
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/24/13
for a pitcher but just another out for the hitter?
Jeff Sullivan: This can help! http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/4/1/4165664/how-can-strikeouts-be-great
- Jeff Samardzija: Welcome to the Rotation
reliever with a mixed (at best) big league pedigree into an above-average starting pitcher? The improvement that stands out the most was his ability to almost halve his BB% from his 2011 numbers (down
- Jeff Samardzija's Seesaw Season
Back in March, there were still questions about whether Jeff Samardzija could successfully transition into a starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs. The lanky right-hander served mostly as a long-duty
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 4/24/15
Jeff Sullivan: You have to start with the caveat that every game and every pitcher is different, but I think I recall reading that runs go up with both very high temperatures and very low
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/28/15
Jeff Sullivan: I'm starting to experience some serious connection problems, so I apologize for the slowdown
Comment From Phil A
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/4/15
Comment From Bill
Has Joe Kelly found something or is he in a lucky streak?
Jeff Sullivan: I'm not at all convinced he's a good pitcher now
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 5/1/15
from having a better defensive catcher. He's getting ahead more, so he's working less often in hitter-friendly counts
Jeff Sullivan: I don't think he's a better pitcher
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 6/24/14
Jeff Sullivan: I'd love to know why every deceptive pitcher in baseball is deceptive, but I don't think this is going to be the key for any of them
- Pitcher-on-Pitcher Violence, Ft. Clayton Richard
Look, there's no way to begin this except with a little story. I don't know how else I could get to the meat and keep you guys with me. From time to time, I like to play around with pitcher numbers
- Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/20/15
Jeff Sullivan: Some. Vazquez is going to help that
Comment From Brian
Why is it that a pitcher is given credit for a batter missing the ball or hitting it down
- Streaming Starting Pitchers
In two leagues I am in, there has been some complaining of teams streaming starting pitchers this last week of the season. Streaming is using as many starting pitchers as you can to try to accumulate
- Jeff Karstens and Imperfect Information
Jeff Karstens's free agent case was, to me, one of the most intriguing of the offseason. I covered it multiple times at multiple outlets. I thought the Pirates' decision to non-tender Karstens
- Robinson Cano's Replacement-Level Floor
Robinson Cano’s power vanished in 2014 without a clear explanation. Most believe that he will be valuable even if the power does not return. I think Cano’s risk going forward is greater than meets
- Pitcher's Luck as a Rate Stat
I introduced Luck last week and expanded the work to change hitter's Luck to a rate stat. Today I am going to look at pitcher's Luck as a rate stat. Pitcher Luck is mainly linked to a pitcher's ERA
- Starting Pitchers: May 17th
Starting pitcher notes from around the MLBiverse...
Jeff Francis | Rockies
For the first time over than 20 months, Francis took to a big league mound yesterday, limiting the Nationals to just
- Starting Pitchers: August 9th
Another week, another starting pitcher update...
Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 7% owned
Hellboy made a rather spectacular debut against the Twins last week (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K), and now
- Simple 2015 Pitcher Rankings
Well, I will take one for the Rotographs team and publish our first rankings to get torn part. I am going with the simplest of all pitcher rankings …. strikeouts minus walks. Basically, how much
- Simplifying Pitcher Valuations: Background
A pitcher really has only 3 attributes that they can control: strikeouts, walks and ground balls. Some evidence exists showing that they have some control over their BABIP and HR/FB
- Pitcher's Luck: Workhorses
would like to make a couple of points to begin with. First, if a pitcher struggles, they are not as likely to pitch as much. The list shows more lucky pitchers than unlucky pitchers. I see
- Pitcher Theft in 2012: an Examination
wrote about the non-pitching value of pitchers. Here, Jack Moore looked at pitcher hitting in certain detail. Featured below, you will find Cliff Lee, Anthony Bass, and Jake Westbrook. Discussed
- The Cardinals' Crowded Starting Rotation
tossed at least 60 innings last year, Wacha's 80 FIP- ranked 52nd. He actually wasn't as good as a starting pitcher as he was a reliever, but the outlook for him is still bullish in 2014. Both
- Early 2015 Pitcher Projections
• For the Total Value, I used the Standing Points Gain method I describe here. I have not updated the equation for 2014 season leagues, but it should be close to the same values.
Link to 2015 Pitcher
- Pitcher Aging Curves: Introduction
of fastball velocity. I was curious about the general pattern of decline for fastball speed and how it impacts overall pitcher performance. Luckily, Jeff already had been thinking about this.
- World Series Game 5 Live Blog
the alternate commercial viewings starting the next go-round
Comment From Aussie Mariner
Did you bring strong opinions Jeff?
Jeff Sullivan: My
- Starting Pitchers: April 12th
The season is just a week old, so most starters haven't gotten a chance to pitch their way out of a job or get hurt yet. Let's check in on the status of some rotation spots around the league.
- Pitcher Contact% and Strikeouts in 2009
Though it's quite brief, I have to believe that Jeff Sullivan's post on the correlation between pitcher contact rates and strikeouts from this past August has got to be one of the most exciting
- Jeff Zimmerman's 10 Bold Predictions
5. R.A. Dickey will be a top five pitcher in AL-only leagues. Once he was able to throw his hard knuckle ball over the last 11 games of the 2013 season, he put up a 3.35 era, 1.13 WHIP
- BABIP Driven Starting Pitcher K/9 Changers
R-squared = 0.976
I then calculated the xK/9 for every starting pitcher who has thrown at least 20 innings this year and sorted by the difference between K/9 and xK/9. The group of pitchers
- BABIP Driven Starting Pitcher BB/9 Changers
with an inflated BABIP.
Like yesterday, I looked at all starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in a season from 2003-2012 (n = 1,770) to formulate a regression equation to turn a pitcher’s
- Proposed Trade: Billy Butler to the Rays
to try to get a starting pitcher from the Rays. Since McGee has already begun his MLB career and thereby having a little less trade value, I see him as a nice trade option for the Rays to send
- 2009 Impact Rookie: Jeff Samardzija
There are a lot of differing opinions on the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija. The former Notre Dame football player was swayed away from a potential National Football League career with a huge pro contract
- Indians Improve Starting Rotation, Indirectly
the starting rotation, and for legitimate reasons. In my Tuesday chat queue there were several concerns expressed regarding the Indians' starters, and consensus seems to be that the Indians don't have enough
- 2013 Pod Projections: Jeff Samardzija
Your voices have been heard. Tallying six big votes for the next pitcher to be Pod Projected was 2012 breakout starting pitcher, Jeff Samardzija. I owned him in all of my leagues last year after
- 2014 Pod’s Picks: Starting Pitcher
Today marks the end of the 2014 Pod's Pick series and we finish off with my favorite position, starting pitcher. This is where we find the most divergent opinions as an extra projected win or two
- Matt Moore is the Sell Highiest Starting Pitcher
had him ranked as the 24th best starting pitcher in the preseason, but yesterday our consensus rankings were updated and he actually moved up to 20. So it would seem that I have actually become more
- How Close Jeff Keppinger Has Come
Give this to Jeff Keppinger: he's a long way from history. Keppinger, to date, has started 29 games for the White Sox, and he's still searching for his first base on balls. That's a long streak
- Potential Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rate Decliners
Tyler Chatwood is intriguing in that he's an extreme ground ball pitcher and flashes plus velocity with his fastball. Unfortunately, he throws the fastball far too often to induce lots
- Pitcher Aging Curves: Maintaining Velocity
Bill Petti published the first two parts of a series on pitcher aging. Bill's first article focused on pitchers, in general, and the second was on the difference between starters and relievers
- Potential Starting Pitcher Walk Rate Regressers
Yesterday, I used my xBB% equation to identify starting pitchers whose actual walk rates were most above their expected marks. This group should be expected to enjoy a decline in their walk rates
- Reviewing Pod’s Picks: Starting Pitcher
at how my starting pitcher Pod's Picks performed.
My Preseason Rank: 66 | Preseason Consensus: 111 | Actual Rank: 41
I thought I was done when it was announced
- Starting Pitcher Streamers for Saturday 9/27 and Sunday 9/28
at home, in pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and his opponent is the very hitter-friendly Samuel Deduno.
Montero's shown his share of warts in his first taste of the bigs, but he's better than he's
- Jeff Locke & Thanking His Defense
One of the biggest fantasy surprises this year has undoubtedly been left-hander Jeff Locke of the Pittsburgh Pirates. After getting shelled in his first 12 big-league appearances to the tune
- NL $1 Option: Jeff Francis
After missing the entire 2009 season due to surgery on a torn labrum, Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis is back pitching and is in the running for the fifth starter’s job. Saturday’s outing was rough (4
- Starting Pitcher Swinging Strike Rate Decliners
, today I'll check in on the other side of the coin -- those starting pitchers who have suffered through the largest decline in swinging strike rate. Obviously, knowing that a pitcher is inducing fewer
- Four AL Starting Pitcher Targets For Final Month
it's categorical, like trading an excess of saves for a starting pitcher. But that doesn't happen often, so the alternative is to simply aim lower. Trading for a Chris Sale level pitcher is great and all
- Potential Starting Pitcher Walk Rate Improvers
Last week, I used my expected strikeout rate equation to identify the starting pitchers whose actual strikeout rates are most below their expected marks. Today, I'll look at the other primary skill
- Jeff Francoeur and Non-Pitchers Pitching In the Game Today
There seems to be an urge to consider Jeff Francoeur's Tuesday pitching appearance symbolic. Francoeur's an outfielder called on to pitch, and he went two innings in a blowout because the bullpen
- The Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rate Decline Candidates
Yesterday, I took the first look of the 2015 season at starting pitcher's xK%. I began with the potential surgers, those pitchers whose expected strikeout rates were most above their actual marks
- 2014 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: June
It's that time again, updated American League starting pitcher tiers! We're now far enough into the season where I have to finally take skills changes into serious consideration. Velocity changes
- NL Starting Pitcher Keeper Rankings: Tier Six
with more nuance than I will here, so consider this a quick-and-dirty version of that: He’s a totally competent pitcher with a workable WHIP, an ERA that’s going to be linked closely with his BABIP
- Reviewing 2014 Pod’s Picks: Starting Pitcher
It's starting pitcher recap time, woohoo! So let's kick things off by checking back with my preseason Pod's Picks. I only included pitchers from my top 78 in the bullish section, while the bearish
- Your American League Starting Pitcher Acquisition Targets
anyone at a discount to his pre-season value should yield a nice profit.
As usual, the easiest way to identify your targets is to calculate the difference between a pitcher's ERA and SIERA
- 2014 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: April
A new season beginning means a new set of tiered rankings. As usual, I'll be sharing with you lovely readers my American League starting pitcher ranks. All my rankings lists are based on projected
- 2015 Pod’s Picks: Starting Pitcher
Opening day is finally upon us! I conclude this year's (condensed) Pod's Picks series with starting pitchers. If you missed them, here are the infielders and outfielders. The bullish group will only
- Starting Pitcher Swinging Strike Rate Surgers
A week ago, I identified the starting pitchers whose xK% marks were most above their actual strikeout rates. The swinging strike component is the most significant in my xK% equation, so let's take
- How Good Is Jeff Samardzija's Splitter?
It has not all been rosy in Jeff Samardzija's first season as a major league starting pitcher, but it has certainly been successful. With a 4.06 ERA backed by a 3.54 FIP and 3.59 SIERA, Samardzija
- 2014 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: May
rankings is to merely expand the body of work by a pitcher from which to analyze. Unless there is a dramatic change in underlying skills that looks sustainable or an injury, there shouldn't be a whole
- Pitcher Pace, and Who's Really In Control
is the fastest-working pitcher, and he's always been the fastest-working pitcher. And as hitters are concerned, it doesn't get slower than Carlos Pena. You don't usually think of hitters when you think
- Pitcher's Luck: Part Time Starters
, but missed some starts in 2011 because of time in the minors, injuries or being shut down at season's end.
I assumed a league average BABIP and LOB% for each pitcher. There is some evidence that some
- Starting Pitcher Ground Ball Rate Surgers
appearances. Though no pitcher has quite reached that level yet, we are fairly close. It is therefore worth checking in on those pitchers whose ground ball rates have surged since last season and see if we
- 2014 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: July
We're back at it again, checking in on the American League starting pitchers.
- Potential Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rate Surgers
A year ago, I developed a regression equation to estimate what a pitcher's strikeout rate (K%) should be. That formula used a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball Reference, including
- Spring K% Starting Pitcher Breakout Candidates
We have been told ad nauseam that spring training stats mean nothing. For the most part, this is true. As soon as you begin reading an article quoting a pitcher's spring ERA or a hitter's batting
- A Trio of Young AL Starting Pitcher Debuts
Trevor May | MIN
May made his MLB debut last Saturday and it wasn't pretty. Sure, he could have allowed even more runs, but I can't imagine anything worse for a young pitcher's confidence than
- Starting Pitcher Streamers For Tonight 9/23 & Tomorrow 9/24
The tribe has spoken. Some of you play in leagues that allow you to pick up and start pitchers for that day's slate of games, while others must add a pitcher a day in advance. Since I enjoy catering
- Return of the Most Deceptive Pitcher in Baseball
in the team's pitching rebound, and he's done it by bringing his old skill from elsewhere. It seems to me Worley is the most deceptive pitcher in baseball. That can't be proven until we all agree on a single
- Pitcher Rankings with Bill James Projections
the pitchers against all pitchers. Then, I divided the pitchers into 2 lists, starters and relievers. If the pitcher was projected to make more starts then relief appearances, I put him as a starter. Otherwise
- NL Starting Pitcher Keeper Rankings: Tier Five
more pitcher-friendly than the Marlins’ current digs, with an extra 60 feet in left-center, an extra 12 feet in center, and an extra 31 feet in right-center. The extra space may not help Sanchez if he’s
- Jeff Samardzija on Pitch Counts and Injuries
Jeff Samardzija has some old-school in him when it comes to pitch counts. Ditto work loads for late-inning relievers. The 29-year-old righthander feels starters should be given more of an opportunity
- What Has Happened to Jeff Samardzija?
Sort our leaderboards by second half ERA in descending order in the American League and Jeff Samardzija sits atop the list with the highest mark. And it's not even close. His 7.43 ERA might have been
- AL Starting Pitcher Disappointments: Better Days Ahead?
, there are no qualified pitches with an ERA between 5.00 and 6.00, however there is one pitcher with an ERA over 6.00. The three pitchers below were expected to post much better results than they have so far. Will any see
- Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire: Masterson and Arrieta
to throw strikes are two pretty important skills for a pitcher. And Jake Arrieta had demonstrated neither. That is, until 2012:
Arrieta has seen a dramatic increase in his strikeouts and a concomitant
- What to Do When You Read a Silly Trade Rumor
reportedly asked for too much. Consider the Red Sox:
The Boston Red Sox initially wanted Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Matt Garza to be included as compensation for general manager Theo Epstein, but the Cubs
- The Post-Injury Jeff Francis and DIPS
It’s probably the Canadian in me talking, but I have always been a Jeff Francis fan. The University of British Columbia product was selected 9th overall by the Colorado Rockies in the famed Moneyball
- Oliver Perez: Pitcher You Want
- Playing the Matchups By Not Playing the Matchups
walked by an Angels pitcher. Cano was intentionally walked by Angels starting pitcher C.J. Wilson. Left-handed Angels starting pitcher C.J. Wilson, who's always run a big lefty-killing platoon split
- Peter O'Brien & Clint Robinson: Deep League Wire
reversed course on this so-called decision). Though it should help his offensive performance and result in more playing time if he wins a starting job, it hurts his fantasy value as he'll need
- Jeff Zimmerman’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2012
4) Zack Greinke will be a top three fantasy pitcher. Among qualified pitchers in 2011, Zack was ranked as follows:
1st in K/9 at 10.5
1st in xFIP
1st in SIERA
Zack was unlucky with his
- Jeff Zimmerman's 10 Bold Predictions for 2015
1. Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw will not be the #1 ranked fantasy player for 2015. These two are the consensus number one hitter and pitcher, but I will take the field that someone else will step up
- Reviewing 2015 Bold Predictions - Jeff Zimmerman
overall pitcher with Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke ahead of him. Kershaw was his normal self, but Greinke and Arrieta had career seasons. Trout was a little further down the hitter rankings at #7. His
- Fantasy Rankings Prep (3 of 3)
and they will be long gone before this round. Of the four starting pitchers, all should be around with even the possibility of Hernandez (or one of the other four starting pitcher in his tier). Pujols and Upton
- Reviewing Jeff Zimmerman's 2014 Bold Predictions
had caught more games, but he only had two.
1 for 4
5. R.A. Dickey will be a top five pitcher in AL-only leagues.
48th in the MLB, I counted five AL players better than him, so more failure
- RotoGraphs Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers
Starting pitchers are the best. For whatever reason -- perhaps their true talent changes more year to year, or they have less control over their results than hitters, or injury is more pervasive
- Year of the Pitcher? Year of the Pitcher.
, starting there seems like the best idea. But that won't tell the whole story. Things do happen after the ball is put in play, and the pitcher can't be absolved of all those outcomes. Adding defensive
- Reviewing Max Scherzer's Baserunners
full of what-ifs. Why not apply that to their best starting pitcher? We know how Scherzer made history. He nearly made more.
Scherzer's first no-hitter came on June 20, but what some have forgotten
- Let's Get Paulo Orlando 21 Triples
triple. He'd still have a higher rate than Darin Erstad, and Jeff Francoeur, and whichever one of the Alex Gonzalezes this is, and Rickey Henderson. Across baseball, triples have been in decline. Orlando
- Rangers to Try Yovani Gallardo Out of Context
, plunging to last year's 18%. As a consequence, his FIP- has arrived in the triple digits, and it's no longer accurate to think of Gallardo as a big strikeout pitcher. Last year he finished with a lower
- Robinson Cano and Second Base Aging Curves
to hear that the Yankees are ignoring that policy with Robinson Cano, and have confirmed that they recently made Scott Boras a "significant offer" to get him from becoming a free agent after the season
- Meet the Disciplined Yasiel Puig
, foul. That quickly, Koehler was ahead of Puig 0-and-2, and there is no more advantageous count for a pitcher, aside from 0-and-3. Koehler could choose from anything to try to put Puig away, and Puig
- Zack Wheeler's Catching and Zack Wheeler's Pitching
Before Matt Harvey was hurt, he was virtually perfect. Before Matt Harvey was perfect, he was imperfect, just another talented young pitcher a bit rough around the edges. The emergence of Harvey took
- Robinson Cano, Pablo Sandoval, and Hard Contact
, and once upon a time, so did Nomar Garciaparra. It is possible to succeed while swinging at everything, and nobody personifies that today better than do Robinson Cano and Pablo Sandoval.
- Updated Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers
rate, change in pitching mix -- and when a young (or new) pitcher like Yu Darvish or Brandon Beachy shows good news in those areas, we're just as likely as anyone to move them.
So let's take
- The Worst of the Best: The Wildest Swings of the First ~Half
Good day, whoever you are, and welcome to the second part of The Worst Of The Best's first ~half in review. Right here is a link to the section with all of the posts in this series, starting from
- The Most Important Thing I Learned from WAR
; but even without him, they're left with a similar team, just without one starting pitcher. If the Royals don't make the playoffs in 2014, they don't have to tear everything down because Shields became
- Anthony Gose Might Be Ready to Hit
or defensive specialist. For 2015, our own projections peg him for a .292 wOBA, which is technically better, but ranked with Shane Robinson and Aaron Hicks. It's a perfectly sensible projection; it matches what
- Gio Gonzalez, Pitcher Abuse, and a Modern-Day Record
pitchers recorded at least one strikeout against an opposing pitcher. Tied for fifth were Ryan Vogelsong and Lance Lynn, with 28 strikeouts of pitchers apiece. Tied for third were Tommy Hanson and Jeff
- Hisashi Iwakuma and an Unexpected Record
. Better for a pitcher to have one stolen base and one caught steal on his record than zero of both, because the value of a caught steal is considerably higher than the value of a successful steal
- The Team Projections and You (American League)
in the world, in Josh Hamilton, and there's depth in the rotation with the surprising Matt Shoemaker and with Andrew Heaney coming over.
Reasons for pessimism
The best pitcher on the team will miss
- MASH Report (9/21/15)
during Seattle's six-run fifth. He wound up allowing four hits and two runs with five walks over his 5 2/3 innings, improving his record to 18-7 with a 3.54 ERA.
I ran my pitcher injury finder
- Pitcher Aging Curves: Starters and Relievers
On Monday, Jeff Zimmerman and I launched our series of articles on pitcher aging. Readers should refer to introductory article, which includes general curves and a summary of the methodology
- MASH Report (6/10/13) - PAIN - Pitcher Injury Finder
After introducing HURT (hitter injury finder), I am introducing PAIN (pitcher injury finder) today. Besides a list potentially hurt hitters and pitchers, I will examine Ryan Braun, Anibal Sanchez
- Hitter Results vs Unique Pitcher Types
We always hear our not-so-favorite broadcasters mentioning a player's stats against a certain pitcher. Well, I think we are all hopefully smart enough to not take the results of 15 meetings between
- White Sox Sign Jeff Keppinger, Human Ball Return
. The position has been something of a trouble spot, and on Wednesday the White Sox addressed said trouble spot by agreeing to terms with Jeff Keppinger. Word is it's a three-year contract worth something
- The Brewers' Healthy, Stealthy Starting Rotation
. They also are quite athletic, with above-average team speed and defense; plus the bullpen has been effective all season. Their stealth strength, though, just might be their healthy, durable starting
- Bourn vs. Papelbon: a Pitcher Pace Case Study
FanGraphs keeps track of pitcher Pace, which you already knew. Here's a definition of what pitcher Pace is, in case you need to brush up. The data comes from PITCHf/x timestamps, and while Pace
- Updated Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers
. So it's fair that we break down every appearance for them and weight recent work heavily. And yet, every pitcher has a baseline, and we know how luck, park and weather factors can influence any one
- Daily Notes: Give a Care About Jeff Samardzija
starting tonight for Chicago, it's right-hander Jeff Samardzija.
Regarding Why Anyone Should Give a Care
In terms of why anyone should give a care about how Jeff Samardzija is starting, consider
- Pitcher and Hitter Luck: Putting It All in One Place
the same format as the hitters with the exception that I also added LOB%. I subtracted the league average BABIP (0.290) and HR/FB% (9%) from the player's values. Additionally, I subtracted the pitcher's
- The Best & Worst of Pitcher Strike Zones, With Dallas Keuchel
with strikes, that hardly means anything going forward. But if a pitcher's racked up extra strikes, that bodes well for what's to come. That's something to keep in mind when you read all the rest
- Kauffman Stadium: Pitcher-Friendly, Hitter-Friendly
pitcher-friendly, right? AT&T Park is pitcher-friendly. PNC Park is pitcher-friendly. Safeco, historically, has been pitcher-friendly. But this is the interesting twist, at least as far as park
- The Straw Man of the Pitcher-for-MVP "Debate"
on the topic, he points out that it is far from black-and-white; the last time we had a pitcher named MVP (Verlander in 2011), he was on 27 of 28 ballots. So maybe there is one sportswriter in 28
- A Glimpse of Recent Baseball's Most Unhittable Pitcher
have some plate-discipline data going back to 2002, and since 2002, there have been 3,546 individual pitcher seasons of at least 50 innings. Here's the contact rate top-five:
Brad Lidge, 2004
- Bartolo Colon Isn't a One-Pitch Pitcher
-- it doesn't feel like this kind of pitcher ought to be able to succeed.
And, yeah, Colon is weird. It looked like his career was over until it wasn't, and other pitchers don't share his current approach
- How Changes in Pitcher Zone% Affect Other Rates
with no correlation. The BABIP curve is a little more interesting.
For every 1% increase in Zone% a player's BABIP will go up 1.7 points. So the pitcher is giving up more hits, but less walks
- Chris Young Is Not A Minor League Pitcher
A victim of what amounts to one of the deeper stables of starting pitching, Chris Young opted out of his contract with the Washington Nationals with the hopes that he could find a major league role
- When Yasiel Puig Crushed a Pitcher's Pitch
of hitting lots of pitches for home runs. Even when you basically execute, as the pitcher, Puig can still make you feel like a failure.
In some sense, maybe this is a bad thing. Delmon Young has hit
- He's Not the Same Pitcher Any More
of these changes may have come from the systems merely catching up to old change.
- So What Should a Jeff Samardzija Extension Cost?
Yesterday, the Cubs reportedly offered Jeff Samardzija a five year, $85 million extension, a deal that would allow him to remain in Chicago rather than get traded at some point in the next five weeks
- The Pitcher Who Did the Most With the Least
dream, I was a starting pitcher, so I'm going to take a look at starters only. This is easier, since relievers can have such small samples that the data might not fully reflect the player. I will also
- The Starting Pitchers that Baffle the Rankers: Outside the Top 100
is a selection of starting pitchers ranked outside the top 100 who we greatly disagree about.
Over an abbreviated season
- The Starting Pitchers that Baffle the Rankers: The Top 100
discussed above how important innings are to a starting pitcher's value? Harvey is a perfect example. After reading the below tweet, I upped my Harvey projection from 160 to 180 innings, which pushed
- K-BB vs. the RotoGraphs Top Starting Pitcher Rankings
) and “strikeout rate minus walk rate, divided by games started” (K%-BB%/GS) and both of those had a slightly better correlation, but are not as simple.
The correlation between the starting pitcher
- Shark Spotting: Jeff Samardzija in the Cubs' Rotation
I have to confess, the Cubs’ decision to move Jeff Samardzija into the rotation puzzles me a little bit. I certainly understand that if a pitcher is equally effective in the rotation
- Jeff Samardzija & The Quest for Fantasy Ace-dom
In 2014, Jeff Samardzija had the best season of his career as a starter, finishing with an ERA under 3, a 3.06 SIERA and a miniscule 1.8 BB/9, all during a campaign in which he was traded between
- Pitch Win Values for Starting Pitchers - June 2014
- 8 AL Starting Pitchers Throwing More Strikes
Strikes are good. Your favorite starting pitcher throwing a higher rate of them is a wonderful sign. In fact, I like to identify high strikeout starters with control issues as breakout candidates
- Pirates Starting Pitching Depth Chart Discussions
was just simply good again. He did just turn 36, however, and what we know about starting pitcher aging curves suggests that's getting a little long in the tooth, but his velocity was down just .4 mph
- Pitch Win Values for Starting Pitchers - July 2014
- Revisiting My 2014 Spring K% Starting Pitcher Breakout Candidates
it was exciting to learn that there was some meaning after all, if you knew where to look. So with that in mind, I identified four starting pitcher breakout candidates based on strikeout rate surges
- Last 14 Day AL Starting Pitcher Velocity Surgers
. Since velocity stabilizes quickly, we should take surges very seriously. They could portend or confirm better performance. So here are your American League starting pitchers who have enjoyed at least
- Last 14 Day AL Starting Pitcher Velocity Decliners
Last week, I discussed the five starting pitchers whose fastball velocity had experienced the greatest surge over the previous two weeks. So today, I'll check in on the decliners. Since velocity
- Pitch Win Values for Starting Pitchers - May 2014
- Potential Starting Pitcher K/9 Risers Through the Lens of SwStk% Update
If you have not noticed by now, I am in love with the SwStk% metric. What better way to determine that quality of a pitcher's raw stuff than to look at the percentage of swinging strikes he has
- Starting Pitcher Velocity Increasers Over Last 30 Days
I love analyzing velocity data and comparing it to historical marks generated by that particular pitcher. A decrease in velocity could be the first signal of an injury or a problem with mechanics
- Starting Pitcher Bust Candidates According to Steamer, Part II
On Monday I ran the 2015 Steamer projections for starting pitchers through Zach Sanders' Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify some possible bust