Log In   -   Register?

FanGraphs+ 2015!            Auction Calculator!            Probables Leaderboard!

Goal for quality starts in a 5 x 5?

+1 vote
We have changed from wins to quality starts in a 5 x 5 roto league? 12 teams. What is the best strategy and what is a good number to shoot for to be towards the top of the league?
asked Feb 15, 2013 in Strategy by goody004 (11 points)

2 Answers

0 votes
Well, there were 2484 QS last season and just 1738 wins from starting pitchers. There 340 cheap wins, or wins that were not quality starts. Conversely, there were 461 tough losses, or quality starts that ended as losses.

Given that there were far more quality starts than wins, I'd say that starters on teams with crummy offenses get a big boost. Padres, Mariners, and Mets make for good examples.

As for what makes a good number, with so many more QS up for grabs instead of pure wins, I would adjust your comfort number of wins and add 20-25. That should place you in the middle of the road for QS.  

I'd still stay away from the Astros and Rockies because, well, have you seen those teams?

Hope that helps!

(If you own Cliff Lee, bet you wished you did this last year!)
answered Feb 15, 2013 by David Wiers (273 points)
0 votes

I'm in a Quality Starts league.  I like it better than counting Wins.  In the draft, I think the trick is to not overvalue the QS stat.

Take a look at the top 75 SPs from the 2012 season (Ok, not the best sampling approach, but good enough to give you a sense of what to expect – it allows for approx 6 SPs per team in a 12 team league). 

Range:  At #1, RA Dickey topped the list with 27 QS.  At #75, Ervin Santana came in with 15 QS. 

Average:  19 (well, 18.96...close enough).  :)

Midpoint:  19 

Top 25%:  21-27

Distribution:

 

# of QS

Count of Player

27

1

25

4

24

1

23

3

22

6

21

7

20

9

19

6

18

9

17

11

16

10

15

8

Grand Total

75

 

What strategy to take in all this?  For me, I don’t even bother targeting QS.  I target quality pitchers, who I expect to produce a low ERA and simply use ERA as a proxy for QS…and, I take SIERA projections seriously (see Fangraphs article:  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-pitching-projections-better-than-era-estimators/)

IMHO, since both ERA and QS include runs earned in their calculations, good performance in ERA should lead in good performance in the QS category (a majority of the time). For example, for those same 75 players from last year, correlation between ERA and QS was 0.52. Again, good enough, given the relative unpredictability of ERA and QS from season to season.   Good Luck!

image

answered Feb 15, 2013 by willsmith888 (74 points)
...