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Which leads to 3+ run innings more leadoff HR or double?

0 votes
It woudl make sense that a leadoff HR produces more 3+ run innings, except a lot happens in the field when there is a runner in scoring position such as pitching from the stretch, errors, etc that lead to more runners. I know there will be speculation both ways based on theories from scouring the internet. But apparently no one has done the actual statistical research.

I'd like this question answererd once and for all with an actual statistic: on averaage, what leads to big innings (3+ runs)? I read a related stat that stating the probability of a single run scoring with a leadoff walk/hit is 38%, a double 64%.

Regards, Nick
asked May 25, 2013 in Sabermetrics by Nimesh Jagota (3 points)

1 Answer

0 votes
A quick query from 2002-2012 suggests that both lead to 3-run innings 13% of the time.

Innings with leadoff home runs scored an average of 1.5 runs. Innings with leadoff doubles scored an average of 1.1 runs.


I can double check the data later.
answered May 26, 2013 by James Gentile (2,012 points)
Thanks so much for that answer. Being new to this site and baseball analytics in general, can you tell me how you accessed that information? I would have like to be able to figure it out myself.
No problem. That info is not available at Fangraphs-- I used retrosheet data with a SQL program. If you are familiar with SQL you can download the file (with a donation) at BaseballHeatMaps.com
Ok, thanks. I checked it out. Couldn't figure out the date range of the data in the sql database from the description. I would rather have it for the past 10, 20, or 30 years than older (although that has use as well).

Is there another location for recent data in a similar format?

Regards, Nick