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Rookie query: Is there a consensus on best predictive stat for hitters and pitchers?

0 votes
asked Jun 12, 2013 in Sabermetrics by Joe Don (10 points)

3 Answers

0 votes
Best predictive stat for pitchers is probably SIERA, hitters don't really have predictive stats.  Really you shouldn't look at just one stat.  Consider BABIP, K%, B%, and the pitchers career rates.  For hitters look at BABIP if you are wondering if a hitter has just had tough/good luck.
answered Jun 13, 2013 by jbhfyb (6 points)
+1 vote

It depends what you are trying to predict. Certain stats are less fluky than others (generally plate discipline stuff, K%, BB%, swing rate, etc) so they are more likely to reflect a player's true talent level, but if you were actually trying to predict a player's overall performance you would want to look at the whole stat line, not one single one.

That said, this might be a useful read for quick reference:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

answered Jun 13, 2013 by Neil Weinberg (190 points)
+1 vote
answered Jun 13, 2013 by James Gentile (1,863 points)
Thanks, James, NWein44 and jbhfyb.
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