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How close are the cubs?

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Last night the Cubs secured their 62nd victory, 1 more than last year.  I am trying to figure out how close the cubs are to being competitive, meaning a 500 or slightly better team let’s say 85+ wins at least puts you in the conversation as a competitor.  If replacement level is considered 48 wins, when I add up the cubs players war for 2013 I get 21 this puts me to 69 wins which is close to where the cubs might finish.  However when I look at the reds and the cardinals, the total of their player war is only 26 and 25 this is only low 70's wins.  This would tell me the cubs are extremely close, but they just don't have the 1 or 2 impact players that will turn the tide.  However this total seems too low for the reds and cardinals.  Since they will both finish around 90 wins, shouldn't the war be around 40?
asked Sep 11, 2013 in Sabermetrics by chifan (10 points)

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