Log In   -   Register?

Sortable Draft Board!            Auction Calculator!            Probables Leaderboard!

Pitching WAR + Positional WAR = Expected Wins?

0 votes
I just wanted some information on how you calculate this considering player trades or movement from minors to majors to confirm that the team totals are accurate for the entire year, not just the end of year or current roster, and whether the above equation is in fact what your numbers suggest.
asked Sep 26, 2013 in FanGraphs Help by Pearberr (13 points)

2 Answers

0 votes

WAR is a counting stat, so accounting for in season roster changes is as simple as summing up each individual's contributions. i. e. playing time is already factored in. 

As the name implies, Wins above replacement describes performance above that of an arbitrary baseline skill level (approximately that of a 25th man or a "quad A" lifer). Last I checked, a team full of replacement level players would be expected to win about 43 games, therefore team wins can be predicted by 43 + positional war + pitcher war.

*note however that the stats won't match team wins exactly on account of the inherent variation accrued over the course of the season

answered Oct 5, 2013 by Kevin Krueger (7 points)
0 votes
Actually, the new unfied replacement level (that is, the level now used by both Fangraphs and B-Ref) is a .294 winning percentage, or 47.7 wins.

So it's 47.7+positional WAR + pitching WAR = expected wins
answered Jan 10, 2014 by acerimusdux (5 points)