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Am I done for this season?

0 votes

I've never asked this kind of question before, but my team is confusing the hell out of me. Amazing out of the gate, then injuries, 4 bad losses in a row, and then last week a good win over a top-3 team. Now I'm at 7th in a 16-team H2H league.

cats: R RBI SB K OPS SLG / K QS HD SV ERA WHIP

10 keepers, probably increasing this offseason

I mean, this isn't a mid-level team, right? I'm just streaky and with bad injury luck? Argh?

 

C Ruiz
1B Goldschmidt
2B Zobrist
3B Carroll
SS Peralta
LF Craig
CF Brantley
RF Bruce
OF Heyward
UTIL Smith
Bench Berry,
Bench Young
Bench Aybar
DL Bonifacio
   
P Holland
P Belisle
P Gregerson
SP Hanson
SP Happ
SP Richards,
RP Papelbon
RP Jansen
RP Burnett
Bench Scherzer
Bench Britton
Bench Niese
Bench Hefner,
DL Halladay
DL Morrow
DL Hutchison

 

asked Jun 25, 2012 in Strategy by Micah Stupak (12 points)
recategorized Jun 25, 2012 by David Appelman
Update for you all who commented on the trade I mentioned below:

An owner wanted to build for next year so a deal was made. He sent David Wright + Kershaw; I sent Billy Hamilton, Chris B Young, Garret Richards and a PTBNL (Brandon Morrow, after the season so I still have him for this year).

Feeling MUCH better about my team now. :)

4 Answers

0 votes
it's decent, but i don't think you're "done."  Just watch waivers closely, maybe you get a rook that makes an impact a la Lawrie last year, Trout, Harper ... changes your team.
answered Jun 25, 2012 by TacoTruck13 (101 points)
Thanks... I think I would have kept on trucking had I not lost Halladay, Morrow, and Bonifacio (and when Young was on the DL and his subsequent non-performance).

I was sorta punting QS, figuring high-K guys like Morrow, Hanson, and Scherzer would keep me afloat in that cat with the good relievers helping the occasional ERA/WHIP blowup. Then losing Bonifacio and Young...well, my SB performance has been nonexistent since but I picked up Q-Berry which has helped. I've been rolling hot waiver dudes at 3B and SS since, hoping Peralta slowly turns it around and when my injuries come back in August everything will be good.

Thanks again.

PS: I meant "done" as in "is my team toast, should I blow it up and play for next year?" ;)
0 votes
I think I'll be a little more blunt. To be honest with you, you're probably done.

Losing Halladay for a long time really hurts you, as well as Morrow.

Bonifacio being out so long really hurts as well, but frankly your hitters are like a who's who list of underperformer's, aside from Craig and Ruiz.

Goldschmidt, Heyward, Aybar, and Zobrist seem to be picking it up, but the rest of them are just either on par or underperforming.

If Hanson is currently your best starter, I wouldn't have much confidence.

If this is a keeper league I might be looking to trade to someone who needs to win now.
answered Jun 25, 2012 by thalooch (57 points)
Yeah...my response to TacoTruck13's comment was optimistic me. You're speaking more like realistic me.

The worst part about having a team full of low-BABIP underperformers is you think "ooh, they could turn it around any minute"... :P I've got two weeks to our trade deadline so I'll probably wait it out and see. I'm in the playoffs as it stands now and, with ten matchups left, I've got three against teams with winning records, so I'm inclined to stay put.

I could swing a good trade to help as I was approached... We use a minor system and I've got Billy Hamilton. I was offered Kershaw for Hamilton, which would be a help. I could conceivably get Wright from the same manager for the right package. Any thoughts on that trade? Thanks!
let me preface this by saying I'm not a keeper league guy, and I don't know much about billy Hamilton other than what I've just read about him on Fangraphs. I think you have to make this trade as Kershaw is an established stud who could carry you in multiple categories for years to come. He might be having a down year by his standards, but he still has terrific #'s and he's young and could even improve.

Look at his career 1st half/2nd half splits and specifically what he did last year after the AS break.
Prospects also don't always pan out and the curious thing for me with Hamilton is that he is a SS in the Reds organization but what about Cozart? He hasn't been amazing, but he hasn't totally flopped either.

I'd pull the trigger on that one for sure. Then again I live in LA and I get to watch a lot of Kershaw live.
Ummm you're being offered arguably the best starter in the game for a high-A prospect?  Is this even a question?  Yes please!
0 votes
check out your league's playoff rules. If your league has divisions, it doesn't matter your place in the league, only your place in the division. Your goal is to get to playoffs, not finish with the best record. Look at your scheduled matchups for the rest of the season, try to figure out the pieces that led you to lose the weeks you lost-- bad luck? bad matchups? playing an obviously superior or lucky team? Look at the point totals across matchups for the whole league-- if your score at the end of a matchup would win in over half of the matchups, you're probably ok.

In h2h your victory is only partially due to your players, and just as much due to the players on the opposing team. Figure out if there are any categories you can punt completely  to trade for an offensive upgrade. You've got some pitchers on your bench whose value isn't really clear in this format-- Britton, for instance, may not give you much in return and your offense has some holes.
answered Jun 26, 2012 by tylersnotes (45 points)
Yeah, I've got a big honkin' spreadsheet that tracks my luck versus other teams. The weeks I've lost, I've been a bit unlucky (including the injuries), and my schedule is tougher in the first half of the year vs the second as well.

At this point, I'm inclined not to trade away anything huge and take my chances. If things pan out with the underperformers continuing to improve and injured players coming back as expected, I'll be in good shape.

Any thoughts on the trade I asked in the previous comment thread: I'd send Billy Hamilton for Kershaw, maybe swing Wright in there too for another of my prospects? Thanks!
I agree with thalooch -- definitely do that trade.  Hamilton looks like an even faster version of Dee Gordon.  It sure is nice to imagine him winning SBs single-handedly for you, but it's probably not worth it if he can't manage an OBP over .300 in the major leagues (especially since your league counts both OBP and SLG).  Granted, Hamilton has higher walk rates than Gordon ever did in the minors, but on the other hand, he's 2 years older and still in high-A.  Unless he gets aggressively promoted, he's so far away from the majors that any number of things could happen to derail his career.  Kershaw is one of the best players in baseball, and getting him for Hamilton is an absolute steal.
my dynasty strategy is play for this year, but i'm new enough to dynasty that i have not had to seriously enter rebuilding in either of my 2 teams. My feeling is any manager who is willing to trade you a star for a highly rated prospect is a manager worth exploiting for as much as you possibly can. Kershaw can lift your pitching staff on his own-- once morrow and halladay come back, you'll be in amazing shape for this year and next year too.
You folks have all convinced to take the deal for Kershaw. I get too caught in prospect hype and the reality check is appreciated. Thanks!

PS: I am not fleecing this owner as he is in a rebuilding phase and keeper cost is important in our league. Our league got rid of trade vetoes as they're more trouble than they're worth, but, well, a previous trade I made where I was the obvious winner was the reason trade vetoing got out-of-hand, so eyes are kinda on me anyway...
make that trade pronto before he changes his mind and before the league re-establishes vetoing!!
0 votes
With two weeks to go before the deadline, I would start reaching out to teams in contention to see what trades are out there.  You'll need a combination of good luck re underperformers & injured players coming back on time if you want to compete.
answered Jun 26, 2012 by pato610 (42 points)
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